Member Info for RuckRover

A warm welcome to the board Angelo. You were my favourite character on shooting stars (Angelos Epithemiou) what with the dirty raincoat, terribly tied tie and carrier bag. Do you keep in touch with Vic, Bob and Ulrikakaka and do you still have the raincoat?

I'm pleased to see you've gained employment at Scancell - how else could you make them great unless you are now working for them? (or you are donating a billion dollars) Although having checked your net worth ( £8,475) I think the latter unlikely.

Hopefully your surname is an omen and there will be some sort of epiphany soon. Here's a clip of one of your finest moments. I hope LD is keeping you well away from the lab mice LOL.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-ToFHJPShs

Thanks EE. Facts and figures are my game, not always totally welcome here!

"(Seems a number of us are agreeing with Ruck recently - what is going on? "

A number of you have come to your senses I guess! :)

Actually Vulpes described the "current" share price as derisory when it was 17p. I can imagine what they would call it now at 11p!

It really depends what you call "low ball". Having some heavy weight institutions with deep pockets on board provides some protection from a stupidly low offer. This safeguard can only have been strengthened following the recent offer and take up by additional institutions.

So any price deemed acceptable will have to fulfil the return targets of these institutions. They have all invested at around 10.6p (Vulpes closer to 7p) - Vulpes and Redmile already held for four/five years.

So I'd think they would consider 60p a minimum (low ball), £1/£1.50 a reasonable offer worth considering.

Yes, we could do with larger volumes and a higher price really.

D90,

To be fully inclusive you need to include festivals of darkness!

Ray,

"What on earth is happening? "

I had a hip replacement last week so could be influenced by anaesthetic, sedation and opioids.

TF,

"even" Ruck? You make it sound like my posts aren't always fantastic!

Violin,

"Guys, I'm sorry, i may be old fashioned"

Nothing old fashioned, lack of common sense has never been in fashion.

TF has given some sound advice - read EE's post carefully. Also, read moonparty's later post.

My own thoughts:

Let's say there was no discounted cash raise. Let's say the new CEO buys a few shares in his first week at full market price? What are you expecting to happen? A leap to 25p? A lower rise but nonetheless a rise?

No, I'll tell you what would happen - the SP would DROP. Why? Because no matter how many he could afford there would be some asking "is that all".

What I want from a CEO is executing, all I want from a CSO is science and all I want from a CFO is the ability to do add ups and take aways.

Investment? I want that to come from institutions with a sound reputation and plenty of money. That or a complete takeover by a big pharmaceutical.

Empty,

" I’d suggest to you that more of the comms fault lies with the people who are supposed to be listening, rather than those who are speaking."

I'd agree with that - said so on numerous occasions.

Krusty,

As I replied to Bermuda, we are not in possession of all the facts so we don't know why the bod deemed it necessary to do a raise now. Maybe that will be revealed in time, who knows.

I did use the word "personally" so if anyone feels different that's fine.

Bermuda,

"Sorry, but it just doesn't make sense"

Well I think we just have to accept we don't have all the facts and because of this things don't always make sense. The only people who know what's going on and what ends are being pursued are the board of directors and presumably the major shareholders. That being the case, everyone on the inside supported the cash raise - the timing, the price and the amount.

Personally I find it quite reassuring that 1) Scancell don't seem to have a problem raising cash if/when needed and 2) new investors and existing ones have a high expectation of success.

I know many are surprised and disappointed with the goings on the last couple of days. I take consolation from examining the past history and data.

On 13/06/2019 Vulpes took part in a fund raise - they paid 5p. This was a small discount to the prevailing 5.3p price.

Within two weeks the SP was at 7p - a height that ha not been seen for months.

On 22/10/2020 Redmile were offered shares at 5.5p, again a small discount on the 6p previously paid. Within 2 months it was 15p - 3 times the offer price.

On 12/10/2020 Redmile were issued more shares at 13p. In the days that followed it hit 18p.

So today's drop is an insignificant blip in the grand scheme of things. Once people appreciate the significance of the extra cash, digest the SCIB1 results, understand the ramifications of the second GenMab deal, we will be back at 15p in no time and progress from there.

"Which of course means the SP should devalue by around 12%"

Not at all. The £9M will appear as a cash asset - no effect on the SP.

The discount to previous price is 20% - so could fall by that amount (and did)

Last week the share was "worth" 33p (TD estimate) but trading at a 50% discount.

Today the share is still "worth" 33p. The worth is based on predicted revenues and probability of success - none of that has changed, if anything the probability of success has increased given the funding, additional GenMab deal and recent results.

Once the shock has worn off and the shares admitted this will recover swiftly I suspect.

TF,

"Ruck - I dont agree."

It might be helpful if you explained which bit you don't agree with..

Have I mis-quoted LD?

Did I not say dilution cannot be ruled out?

Did the happy clappy club not jump all over the mere suggestion?

Perhaps you could argue the point rather than take to bed and pull the blankets over your head

"Put these away for the next 12 months"

Yes, I've done that for the past 14 years.

TF,

". BoD seemed to have been intimating non-dilutive finance for a while"

No, the BOD have been very clear - there are many different types of funding and "we are not ruling any out" - LD's words.

It is the happy clappy glee club on this board that have pushed the "non-dilutive" source and attacked anyone who suggests otherwise. My prediction a few months back was for a larger amount at a higher price. As I have stated many times, I have allowed for 100% dilution in my forecasts - so only 90% to go!

The positive from the lower amount (of money raised) is that there must be an expectation of more non-dilutive funding to come within the next year or so.

TF,

I guess when you were a kid you used to think getting in bed and pulling up the blankets made you secure from Dalek attack!

Hope those nuts are gleaming now.

TF,

Yes, there was a question mark which is why I responded. You made a statement and asked for confirmation or otherwise. In my case, otherwise.

Confident, comfortable, content - yes. Secure? No.

"Most of us, no matter how frustrated, feel secure in positions taken? "

Absolutely not. This is about as far Away from a "secure" investment as you can get. If you're looking for security you need to invest in something like government bonds or a high interest savings account. Even shares in the most solid companies carry an element of risk.

The "secure" investments of course do not offer the potential returns of a high risk high reward share. So long as people understand that it's fine. Scancell have some promising results in a handful of patients but stil face many challenges not least funding.

I think "secure" is a bit strong. If we have invested an appropriate amount and have realistic expectations I think you could say you are "comfortable". I am.