Member Info for RuckRover

WTP,

Please and try and read the posts a little more carefully.

1. I never said I was "convinced" there would be a placing. I merely suggested it was a "possibility"

2. I never suggested a placing would have a devastating effect on the SP. In fact, I suggested 15p which would secure a firm floor (and is higher than what it currently is)

3. It is always a dangerous game selling in the hope of buying back cheaper and a tactic I have NEVER deployed. The spread on SCLP is typically too large to make that pay. There is also the risk of news breaking having the opposite effect.

Personally, I don't think a placing of 200M shares would have much effect on the SP. We are already undervalued - Panmure say 23p, TD say 33p (and we are at 15p!) I think with the pipeline we have, the data available and £30M in the bank we should get somewhere between the two estimates quite quickly.

You probably don't remember but the biggest movement upwards in the SP (after the Moditope serendipitous discovery) was the Redmile investment (large dilution). Think about it.

And don't call me shirley!

WTP,

"You'll be selling up then Ruck I take it?"

Why on earth would I be selling? I originally invested 12 years ago in the 13p-15p range and have taken part in every open offer since then. I have held even when it went down to 3.5p

You are showing incredible naivety if you can't understand that drugs take a long time and a lot of money before they come anywhere near producing revenue. So you can dream about NASDAQ listings, take overs and deals all you like but a fund raise IS an option (and not ruled out by LD)

Ask yourself - would I give up 20% of the value of my shares (at 15p!) to guarantee enough funds to see TWO extremely promising treatments to market? You'd be a absolute fool to say no.

Well the RNS states:

"Professor Lindy Durrant, Chief Executive Officer, and Sath Nirmalananthan, Chief Financial Officer, will host a virtual analyst briefing at 13:00 BST on the day of the results"

So possibly a placing?

I suspect (reading between the lines) that the data is spectacular. The only missing piece of the puzzle is the funding required to see it through phase 2/3 trials. Once this hits 30-40p it becomes less attractive to big investors who want to be in early and maximise returns. So a placing of 200M new shares at 15p would raise £30M. That should be enough for the next 3 years.

It would also solve the problem of the Redmile percentage holding when the CLNs are redeemed.

Matt,

If you have held these for over 12 years as I have, you'd be very reluctant to sell just to break even. So, in answer to your question I will hold as long as it takes. Like, violin, I do have some reasons to sell a few in the not too distant future so hoping for 25p in the short term. Even then, I will only sell a fraction of my holding.

I think with what's going on in the clinic, the positive data coming out the days of living from hand to mouth with a stagnant share price are behind us. I'd probably be happy with £1 for half my remaining shares and then see where we go after.

I think dilution has always been something we need to take into account, and I have factored in a fairly large dilution amount in my own projections.

Rob,

Yes it has been a long time coming. But you can trust me - forecasting is my game lol!

Ciaskin,

I agree.....

RuckRover

Posted in: SCLP

Posts: 5,471

Price: 10.75

No Opinion

RE: TF

24 Jan 2024 10:51

So if you combine this latest revelation with previous analysis we can predict with a fair degree of certainty that the bombshell news we have all been waiting for the past decade (or more) will land on a Tuesday in October!

Violin,

"Well if that RNS tells you the SCOPE Trial is meeting expectations.....brilliant !!"

I'm not sure the word "if" was necessary. How clear do you need it spelling out?

They are preparing for a phase 2/3 trial and "commercial use"

The results in 13 patients were "brilliant". The implication is that these brilliant results have been replicated in 60 patients.

Just a thought...

If we have been promised an update by Q4, there's little point in Scancell reporting earlier than promised. If, as we all hope, the data has been as good as the first 13, what's to say the data won't be even better by Q4?

Like I keep saying, a Tuesday in October.

A little harsh but true!

Konar,

Well we can hope. By then, another six months will have elapsed. Surely in that time there will be something to "update" us on.

Busy times indeed.

So SCLC still on the agenda I see.

This is interesting:

Title: Clinical update on the DC targeting melanoma vaccine, SCIB1 and the Modi-1 vaccine targeting citrullination

Date and Time: Wednesday, 16 October at 5.30pm CEST

I did predict the mega-RNS would be Tuesday in October. Looks like it might be a Wednesday after all.

Morning TF, All,

Yes, just a mention but positive nonetheless. The actual program on immunotherapy was very in testing and well worth a listen.

I tried to find a link between Dr Lee and Scancell or Dr Lee and Lindy Durrant but couldn't find any other than they are both in Oxford.

I'd be interested if anyone else can find a link.

Evening Bunsie,

Welcome back - it's been a while.

Just to reinforce the ASCO poster, the Simon stage 1 and 2 thresholds are mentioned on the January 2024 interim results presentation.

https://www.scancell.co.uk/Data/Sites/1/media/fininfo/2024/scancell-interim-results-fy-2024.pdf

Also on page 11 it states there is "Very little risk of iSCIB1 not working as it is the same as SCIB1.

I don't think anyone doubts the fact that SCIB1 "works". Really good news for patients.

Bermuda,

Thanks, another really helpful reply. Good to see there are at least some willing to engage in conversation pertinent to the issues.

Thanks BOJO, a nice helpful reply.

Ray,

Thanks, I'll check them out.

WTP,

"Nice try RR"

If you mean nice attempt to open a sensible discussion on the research paper concerning targeting fucosyl-GM1 as a target for SCLC and what the advantages and opportunities (and dare I say disadvantages and r**ks) are for Scancell to pursue then thanks.

"You'd think BMS would be more interested in SCIB1 anyway, no? "

Well yes I would think so, I can't imagine a scenario where they would want to do a deal on SCIB2 for SCLC when they already have a treatment in trial. But does that mean they would do a deal on just SCIB1? What if they put in an offer for the whole company - would they bin Scancell's approach to SCLC? Would they replace BMS-986012 if Scancell's is better? Could they approaches be used in combination to make it even better?

I believe these are legitimate questions to debate with an open mind. You should try it sometime - it can be quite enlightening.

Ray,

Correct, I haven't attempted to answer any. I wanted to solicit the thoughts of my fellow learned BB members.

I wouldn't waste LDs time.

It would be useful if you could refer me to where LD said that. That would be reassuring to see.

.

BMS have been conducting clinical trials targeting fucosyl-GM1 in SCLC since 2014 with some encouraging results.

This raises a number of questions:

Will Scancell be able to catch up on BMS's 10 year start?

What are the hopes/evidence that the SCLP approach will be better?

Does this rule out BMS as a potential buyer/partner or will the addition of Glymab improve the BMS treatment?

Are there any patent issues?

Wouldn't the research time and funds be better spent on the MODI platform which is well protected by patents?

So overall, what is the clinical (and financial) case for progressing a SCLC treatment?

GF,

"Now see it as an investment opportunity"?

I saw this as an investment opportunity in July 2012. That's why I invested then and why I have stayed invested these past 12 years. Back then, my expectation was for £3.20 per share in a fairly short space of time - a 10 bagger. Today, my expectations are a bit lower. It would be tempting to off load a few in the 40p - 60p range and keep some to see what happens. I think £1-£2 is not beyond the realm of possibility.

The question asked was "what do you think big pharma would pay?"

Given the stage of development, the data so far, the deep pockets and the impending patent cliffs I can easily see £1-£2. This doesn't mean that is what Scancell is worth today WITHOUT a bid. It's what they are worth to a big pharma IF they wanted the company (or part of the company eg Immunobody)

That is why 40-60p would be tempting. Don't forget, the market values it at 17p today, TD 33p so 60p would be nice (for a few 😀)

ATB