Member Info for RuckRover

Dracula,

"What % exactly is partial response 1% ....10% ?."

A partial response is classed as a reduction in tumour size of 30% or more. A complete response is no detection of tumour. The ORR is measured as a percentage of patients who have either a complete or partial response. In other words what percent have shown a 30% decrease in tumour. (so a percentage of a percentage)

There is not a lot you can deduce from this. For example, those with stable disease could have had anything between a 20% increase to a 29% decrease in tumour. The information available is sketchy at best so I wouldn't draw too many conclusions or make comparison (for reasons explained by Bermuda earlier)

EE

"Who knows, even Inanaco’s £8 a share may turn out to be conservative?"

I think one of the biggest restraints on SP growth is the unrealistic predictions/promises from the happy clappy brigade.

There is a very limited supply of investors who can be convinced that they can turn 14p into £8 in a short time scale. This group will be limited to the very greedy money for nothing brigade or the extremely gullible brigade.

What we really need is a substantial group of investors buying at 14p and selling at 20-25p then people buying at 20-25p and selling at 30-40p etc. This will give stability and growth.

Don't forget Inan's famous £8 prediction was made when there were a fifth of the shares in issue so equates to £2 now. Perhaps that is conservative and £3-£4 is possible in time - possibly another 10 years?

Drac,

"Ruck, Would Sclp not benefit from a placing at at least 20p instead of the paltry 11p If the Co wasn't being traded so much."

Honestly, the paltry 11p has nothing to do with people trading the share. If everyone just bought and held we'd still be at 5p

Drac,

"What value are Investors to a Co that hold shares that are accumulated through trading and a free carry"

What?????

Once shares have been issued and funds paid to the company it matters not who sells and who the share is ultimately held by. In fact, there are numerous positives from having a wide range of investors with a good spread of average purchase price. Someone with a free carry is less likely to be panicked through fear of losing money.

As EE says, different people have different attitudes to risk. So someone who is not prepared to risk money on a potential 100 bagger with a 1% chance of success may well be prepared to invest in a two bagger with a 90% chance of success.

Like many LTHs here, I have supported every open offer. I have also taken profit on occasion when I have needed funds for a big purchase. Whilst it is satisfying to think this is a good cause it is after all an investment not a charitable donation.

Ah yes, I remember now. It was 17p half of the TD valuation of 33p

Remind me, how much was derisory? I can’t remember.

No, but we've all been Biden our time.

Well 21p, 33p, 40p, 50p, £1, £2, £3 have all been suggested by someone at some time.

If any of these are to be achieved, transitioning through 14p is inevitable.

What I'm looking forward to is the day a decent RNS is released and the share price doubles and from there continues to climb.

GF,

"Will we see 14p as suggested????"

Suggested by who? Oh, it was you!

Moonparty,

Good analogy. It applies to the delivery of any product as well as projects. As it stands, the quality is still being tested and the pricing to be decided when we eventually have something to offer. When we do, the decision to purchase will be mainly determined by quality (effectiveness)

All Scancell have said is that their drugs are cheap to “produce”. They haven’t said anything about the selling price. :)

Chelsea,

"Or Ruck, that they do see significant progress that will raise the SP but realise if they wait (hence relax the timeline), they might do even better."

My thinking was (and still is)....

IF Redmile knew there was a big chunk of funding coming in, for instance $100m from GenMab, they would wait and either convert the loan notes or get their money (plus interest) back. No need to wait for 2027.

Empty,

" the extension is to maximise negotiating leverage in deals by making the option to self-fund developments much more realistic and flexible."

fair point.

burble,

"I wonder whether a decision has been made to go at the Phase 3 trial alone"

I think that was made plain by the recent LD interview. The plan is to take it all the way (unless an offer they couldn't refuse came in)

Violin,

I understand your concerns - that is a scenario that COULD happen. In this instance it probably won't.

"forced to bid". As pointed out earlier by a couple of posters they are required under aim rules to make a bid for the entire stock. The shareholders who own the other 70% are not obliged to accept.

" in affect getting control of the company for 13p ???"

No, they can only convert the number of outstanding loan notes at 13p. The bid for the rest will be based on the average price of the share over the past ... (12 months from memory). So it could be higher or lower than 13p.

The only slight niggle for me in today's announcement is that Redmile (as the major shareholder being close to the BOD and privy to information from the horses mouth) are not expecting significant funds to come in in the next two years.

Anyone see on the news the haemophilia treatment- $3.5 million per patient!

Hope Scancell have got their pricing model right.

The question is “nearly there” as in getting the science right or “nearly there” as in finally proving that they have already got the science right?

Thoughts?

Halifax just offered 10.5 for similar amounts.

“ I doubt you'll see the word 'promise' in any clinical trial or expectations of a bio company”

I’ve already said that “promised” was perhaps the wrong word. What do you want me to do - fall on my sword as well?

Interesting take you have on ramping though:

If you de-ramp you’re de-ramping but if you ramp you’re only doing so to make a later de-ramp have more effect!

It’s a strange, warped world you must live in.

Moon,

OK, so “promised” may be a bit strong. But certainly expectation that data will be published in the periods specified have been set. These dates have come from the company or their appointed channels.

Surely they must have enough knowledge to be fairly confident of delivering what they have said within what is after all a wide time window.

Maggie,

You are right, apologies for the oversight.

H2 starts mid day on 2nd July normally and 00:00 on 3rd July on a leap year.

However, we are really interested in when H2 and Q3 END as that is the time we have been promised data.

"I do believe we’re on the cusp of entering H2 2024."

Yes, H2 normally starts July 1st. I don't believe that's changed.