Member Info for RuckRover

TF,

Ooops, I tried to be so meticulous firstly establishing the facts and then presenting them clearly. I have edited and corrected the posts (I posted it twice) just in case anyone looks back for information.

ATB

Ray,

“ but good news for those who have faith in the science and see it as a buying opportunity.”

Since when has ANY investor wanted a stagnant or declining share price. I want this to up, up, UP. And while the SP is falling I certainly won’t be buying more.

Chelsea, I have some sympathy with Lofas stance.

I too have “written this off” emotionally. Not that because I think this is “toast” but IF the worst were to happen I wouldn’t be emotionally or financially wrecked.

"It is a great price for newbies though"

Why is it? The SP has fallen from every single "great price" called out on these boards - from 33p and down. Was 5p a great price 12 years ago? Not if you have held - doubling your money in 12 years is not an exceptionally good return. Of course, if you bought at 5p 12 years ago and sold in the 30p+ range (where it sat for three years) it was a good buy.

Stakis,

"No posts since Sunday - is the site down?"

It's a fair question. I thought my iPad had frozen so rebooted a couple of times. It must be a record for the length of time without a post on the LSE SCLP board.

As TF says, plenty on ADVFN/PoG so maybe everyone is catching up on the War and Peace plot over there.

Sorry, last sentence should read "accountant"

Ripley,

Yes, in principle losses can be offset against gains as far as CGT liability goes,

There are a number of considerations though that can make the actual calculation complicated:

There are different rates of CGT for stocks and residential property. So offsetting one type against another will affect the tax liability.

There is CGT allowance and a personal tax allowance and both may come into play.

A capital gain is taxed when it is materialised so you can't offset paper losses!

Your account will be able to advise you on your particular circumstances.

Bermuda,

I thought the same when I read the post - I'd jump at the chance of a 44% better chance of survival. (The figure in the daily mail article)

I'm not sure this halves the chances.we'd need to know the figure it's an improvement on.

TF,

I must have blocked that from my memory as half the family are big SUFC fans. UTB

"True, but it's nice to have some goals in life I suppose."

Don't rub it in ratty, some people here support Burnley.

Many thanks Ray, JonhnnyB1, bazookajr those comments are really useful.

I'll have to work out how to use the binom.dist function in Excel.

ATB

Bermuda, Moonparty,

Many thanks for the response and clarification.

Even so, regardless of whether success is 85% or 70%, where does the 90% confidence come from?

My job involves working with probabilities. To achieve a 90% confidence level (assuming a normal distribution), you would need 1.28 standard deviations. But deviation from what. I guess if we had the %responses for each individual patient in the 13 measured to date, we could work out the standard deviation and apply 1.28 times this to the arithmetic mean. We could then classify the results and work out the numbers for complete response and partial response and see if this is over 70%.

But I don't think we are privy to enough data to see how 90% confidence was arrived at.

Violin,

Yes, that would make sense. It says 27 enrolled and 24 dosed. So 3 enrolled but not dosed.

I must admit, I struggled to make some of the numbers add up.

The other puzzle for me is the assertion that there is a 90% chance that the 85% ORR in the small sample of 11/13 will be repeated in the full 43. Whilst there is grounds for optimism there is no guarantee that these results will be repeated. If the 85% IS repeated in the 24/27, then the chances of repeating in the 43 will improve. But how the 90% figure is arrived at I have no idea.

TF,

You say

"'I agree very much with your 01.42 re. the motivation behind all his posts."

Just out of interest, could I ask what your motivation in posting is?

I'm afraid Paul is quite right. If you pump $600m dollars into a company it is only worth that amount on the company valuation so long as you don't spend any of it. This can't be the case with Scancell who have far greater cash needs than they have. $600m is a drop in the ocean.

The only time revenue has a multiplier as far as valuation goes, is where that revenue stream is forecast to be maintained year on year. This Genmab is a one off apart from a single digit royalty. Maybe this will be worth $600 per year eventually.

"Fair enough RR. I just don't see Redmile/Vulpes accepting an offer that low IMO."

Why not? They would have exactly the same decision- certain 50p now or a possible £2 in x years.

Redmile don't have a controlling interest and Vulpes average is around 7.5p so 50p might be tempting.

Morning Chester,

"This is an eternal debate between those who are optimistic and confident that Scancell’s science is going to be a new breakthrough in the treatment of cancers and those that see the very real possibility that the road ahead is populated with ‘what if’s’ and ‘maybe’s’. "

It's interesting that you don't say "optimistic" vs "pessimistic". It's an important point because I believe anyone who has put their hard earned cash into this Must have a degree of optimism that it will ultimately be successful.

The difference is unbridled optimism based on blind faith versus tempered optimism based on facts.

WTP,

"Isnt the genmab deal worth £600m+ alone assuming all goes well? "

True, but that potential revenue will be over the next five years or so. So whilst an mcap of £4B is possible, it's not guaranteed, it won't be next week and the amount of dilution required is unknown.

We all have different personal circumstances and investment goals. If I had the choice of a guaranteed 50p next week versus a chance of £2.40 in 5 years, I'd go for the 50p. That's not because I don't think £2.40 is achievable but simply because my personal circumstances mean the money would be more use earlier rather than later. Plus the fact I've already held for 12 years!

Unfortunately the important investment considerations of risk, time and funding seem to be glossed over on these boards.

Morning TF, Moonparty

Hope you are well?

Interesting discussion. Do you know the original source of Inan's post? It doesn't seem to be from a Trinity Delta report.

Just a bit of a reality check.....

The Mcap of Scancell today is £89M (929M shares @ 9.6p)

If we look at the TD latest forecast from the January update they value SCLP at £304m (33p/share, 25.7p/share once Redmile have redeemed their loan notes)

If you take the TD formula and replace there percentages of success with 100% across all platforms you get an Mcap of £4.8B - so yes, your $6B is not that far off!

But to do that misses the point - you have to factor in risk. No one is going to give you odds of 10:1 on a one horse race are they. And even betting on a horse in a one horse race is not entirely without risk - it could pull up or fall.

I know there are lunatics around who still spout the "no risk" mantra but that is just not true of this or any investment.

The other fallacy comes when you try to convery Mcap to share price. Given the amount of time and resources required to get all the platforms manufactured, tested, approved, and marketed who can say how many new shares will need to be issued? Of course, that will depend on the issue price and how much this can be offset by sales or licence revenue.

So while a £4.8B mcap may look like £4.05 per share with 1.185M in issue, it is probable that this won't be the case. If another billion share needed to be issued, the price per share would "only" be £2.40.

So the TD analysis with their conservative valuations give me some comfort that my holding is really worth 30p/share right now and who knows, could make a couple of quid in the next 8 years. There's also the chance of an early bid. So possibly 50p in a shorted time frame?

ATB. AIMHO

Cleaner,

The article got truncated in your post. Here's a link....

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/needle-hay-stack-jeroen-wissink-ateke/

As you say, worth a read.