Member Info for RuckRover

Balerno, Ray,

You are both partially correct. The initial investment for both Vulpes and Redmile was at 5.5p. Redmile were issued loan notes at a redemption price of 6.2p.

The larger investment came later with Redmile buying a significant chunk at 13p. Redmile sold some CLNs in order to win the vote on the 13p investment which was opposed by Vulpes.

Taking all this into account, I worked out the the average price paid by Redmile was 10.6p

I don't think anything major has occurred since to alter that too much.

I make Redmile's average price around 11p. So a £1 is only 10 times.

If they are insistent on x 20 they would need £2.

March?

Is that fellow Burnley fan, magnet or

Fellow Burnley fan-magnet?

Ratty,

You can call it a forecast if you like or you draw some sort of comfort from it.

It is a conditional forecast - conditional on the passing of about 30 years.

C11,

That's very true. By the time this hits £8, auditors will have been replaced by AI bots and we will have colonised Mars.

Sorry wtp, I missed the new poster knocking Scancell. Whereabouts was that?

Interesting observation from BOJO:

"There is a percentage that get stressed out by the mere mention of a competing candidate."

Unlikely I'd have thought. The reports say they had caught the cancer "early". The Modi trial is for "late stage" patients.

Still, not completely impossible- I'll look forward to his progress reports on the MacMillan community forum.

LL,

I'd like to think the best remedies succeeded but fear you could be right.

WTP,

That was my thought as well. The examples given are where (arguably) inferior products succeed through better advertising and marketing, politics or just luck.

All drugs have to go through controlled trials. Surely, the most effective will be selected and used as standard of care so long as the cost isn't disproportionately high?

As for the market left, there will be a constant stream of new potential patients to be treated with what has proven to be best.

Dracula,

I think all long term holders need some Hopium :)

TF,

OK, did as you suggested and exited the other side. I wish I could "dance around" lol.

I think we have both known each long enough to understand each others level of knowledge and to some extend feelings. I guess I was a little unfair. It's just that the idea that patients are ignorant set me off a bit.

I did watch the video, including prof Patel. The Scancell slides referred to SCIB1 so limited the population of patients eligible. This of course changes with iSCIB - I wonder if this will be highlighted in the updated presentation.

The other thing that struck me was the sheer number of melanoma trials going on. Surely some have got to work?

Morning TF, all,

You posted:

"I see that MPC is a 'Patient' meeting - I wonder how that works? (i.e. given that most Patients have limited understanding of science). "

A tad condescending I thought. Why shouldn't patients with life threatening conditions have the opportunity to find out about treatment options and tell their story?

You could argue that patient testimony is the ONLY thing of importance. After all, drugs don't get approved on laboratory results and scientific papers. They get approved through RESULTS in patients.

I would have thought patients considering going on a clinical trial would want to know what the drugs are and how they are supposed to work.

You still don't get it do you? It's not "all about the science". It's about how the science actually works in real people and having the funding to see it through.

C11,

"Nothing interesting with the SP sub 12p!"

Too true!

A few million at £1 - now that WOULD be interesting.

I wonder how long before we see that?

Wtp,

Unusual how? What is "normal" anyway?

Bojo,

I'm glad the answer helped you. I too am a non-scientist so I may have reached the limit of my ability to help!

Other than to say.

The critical factors are number of T-cells and the potency of the t-cells. Both of these can be measured. The first measure as to potency was carried out pre-clinic in mice. Presumably the same tests can be carried out on the humans in the clinical trial.

I guess the upshot is, if they find a large number of potent cells, they can predict the chance of clinical benefit early. This could result in an earlier offer (to buy)

Over to the real scientists.......

Bojo,

Destruction of the tumour can only occur if it is infiltrated by killer T-cells. Normally these would be CD8 cells. I guess this is what you meant by "the obvious"?

If there are CD4 (helper) cells as well, even better.

Modi1 induces the production of cytotoxic CD4 cells making them killer cells as well.

So, if you can get CD8,CD4, Modi induced Cytotoxic CD4 and the checkpoint inhibitors INTO the tumour then you have an environment that gives the best chance of it being goodnight tumour.

So I guess it IS what Pharma want to see - especially before parting with big wads of cash!

Interesting thread title - well done on your purchase GF.

I hope dragon finally managed to bag a few now the spread has narrowed.

Interesting, 65648 is the zip code for Fair Grove, Missouri. Appropriately it is right next door to Pleasant Hope and only a few miles from Springfield- DOH!

Ray, punctuation is important. I read it as coffee-knowing scientists which stumped me a bit. After Jackdaws question I realised it could only be coffee, knowing.... as it is the only thing that made sense as a response to Mia's post.

Jackdaw, there is nothing wrong with Ray's sense of humour, after all, he supports Burnley! My sense of humour is better - I support Birmingham City (someone has to)

Bermuda, I agree with you, I too am surprised that Immunobody has been given a lower chance of success than Moditope. I'll do some number crunching tomorrow and post my thoughts.

Dragon,

I presume you are wanting to buy?

If you want to buy, I assume you believe in the potential here and are hoping for an exit price of 36p, 50p or even a pound?

In which case buy at 11p and wait for the gap (from 10) to close.

The (perceived) large spread will doubtless continue so tomorrow 11/12, in a the future 20/21.

I say perceived as you probably won't have to pay 11p. If you do, change your broker.

Balerno2, TF,

I agree with your views. I don't know whether there will be anything new or not at the Tuesday presentation. I don't think we should expect any and I don't think we should be surprised if there isn't.

What we do know is that there is going to be a LOT of money required to get either SCIB1 or MODI1 through trials and to market. That money will either come from:

A buy out by a big pharma. They will want to pay "fair value" currently 36p. They may have to pay a premium to that - who knows?

OR

Fund raises. This will involve further dilution. The extent of the dilution possibly being mitigated by cash generated from Avidimab and Glycans. Again, who knows?

So either way, there is no harm in raising your profile and putting yourself in the shop window so to speak. The existing news and data is compelling enough isn't it?

AIMO