Member Info for RuckRover

Dracula,

Totally agree. It should be at least the TD valuation of 30.3p (today).

It looks like people are taking the TD number as a target price. It's not - it is the price you pay today in order to reach a higher target in the future taking into account risk and time. (rNPV = RISK adjusted net PRESENT value) .

So, just holding and waiting should mean an increase in value. (since both time reduces and probability of success increases. This is what has happened if you look at the TD valuations over time - it has gone up in pretty much a straight line:

Date SP

17/11/2020 14.6

14/04/2022 24.0

15/02/2023 27.0

21/02/2023 30.3

If this rate continues, we should see a TD valuation of 40p by this time next year.

I know the actual SP has done strange things but as time and risk reduce I would expect the gap between TD and actual to get narrower.

Funnily enough, 11p was my first buy in price. I sometimes wish I had shown fear of missing out on eleven years of dead money.

Wild,

Yes they are - I thought that forgot to draw the graph!

Colorectal cancer is the 4th most common after lung, breast and prostate.

BOJO,

Yes she said that was all on the science but when the analyst asked some pretty stupid questions she did take that as a green light to let rip with some blinding science. That shut him up!

GF,

LOL.

Rigga,

The needle free delivery system is seen as a big benefit to patients but if there was a cancer cure that could only be delivered by electroporation I think most would go for it - I would! So I don't think that was a particular stumbling block for SCIB and MODI.

It would be an issue for a COVID vaccine which needs many thousands of doses, that would put pharma off covidity if that were the case.

As it is, we are well placed with Pharmajet across all platforms.

GF,

I never said that SCLP would get to 2030. The TD valuation is based on what the products are worth in 2030 in order to calculate the NPV (value today). You can draw a straight line from now to 2030, 30p to £6. As roses points out, in order to get there we will need cash, preferably non-dilutive but if not there will be dilution.

At some point on that straight line graph, a buy out may occur. If that happened today I would expect at LEAST the TD valuation plus a premium. If it happens in a year (when the cash is getting low) I would expect 60p plus a premium. We have little control over that. All we can do is hold on to what we have and buy the dips.

True, the February figures only have a 7.5% chance of success for SCIB1. If you increase that to 15% chance then the estimate becomes 41.8p (34.6 fully diluted)

Also, MODI2 value is not included, but you would need to take 1p off for the smaller cash balance.

Roses,

That was sort of my point. As the (good) data increases, the risk goes down. As we move nearer to 2030 the NPV goes up.

Plug those into the algorithm and the SP estimate goes up.

So from here, the only way is up. The only question is how long and how far up.

“ I would think that they have their valuation set a way higher than Trinity. imho”

I think we need to be clear about what the TD valuation is. It is a RISK adjusted, net PRESENT value.

So the 30p that TD factors in:

90% chance of failure

No revenue until 2030

So if there was 0% chance of failure it would be £3, not 30p.

If we were in 2029, it would be 60p.

Put the two together and it would be £6

So basically, you can choose the price at which to exit. In a couple of years, we should have more data and be closer to revenue. So with a 30% chance of success two years closer, it should be £1.

Bojo,

Could you just check you're holding the right end of the stick?

Re Patent Life

Couldn't Scancell do an exclusive deal with BMS for a Yervoy/Opdivo combination thereby rendering the patent issue immaterial?

The last TD valuation was 29p (diluted)

"Glad we have burnt some old wood here."

Can we please stop talking about lozan's logs!

"How many more clues do you need?"

I guess when t gets to 19.75p I'll believe it could make 20p.

Moonparty,

"Pre-conference hype is NEVER like this"

There are possibly other explanations apart from a leak.

For example, we know of several long term holders who have recently sold out. There may be many more who haven't publicly stated it. Perhaps this group who have previously held long term are more likely to want to get back in in anticipation of positive news at the conference or via RNS before?

GF,

Seems like you're the one with a log obsession.

Anyway, nice to have a full turnout of the happy clappy choir this morning - the harmonies were great. Congratulations to the conductor!

I will just try to enjoy the ride.

WTP,

It feels EXACTLY like the normal pre-conference hype.

possibly exagerated by rampy comments like "doesnt feel like the normal pre-conference hype"

Paul,

"Weekend tip somewhere?"

Not that I am aware of. If past history is anything to go by, the price will rise in the days leading up up the ICI conference in Milan 20th - 23rd September (this week). The rise being fuelled by optimism, expectation and FOMO.

Ivy,

That's good to hear!

WTP,

In fairness, crackin called it right as it turned out.

GF,

No, I don't think it's ok to deramp, as a long term holder that doesn't help me at all.