Member Info for RuckRover

Lofas,

You make a valid point. Also, they may be keen to ramp up the trial. If they have 1 partial response out of 10 , 4 out of 40 would be more statistically significant.

Yes, great video but why is Peppa Pig’s head upside down?

Shiitake for me

WTP,

Apologies, £8 hasn't been mentioned for a while. I guess that's off the cards now.

Let me reword my post...

To be fair, we are a lot closer to 5p than £1.

To be fair, we are a lot closer to 5p than £8.

TF,
I'm sure violindog wasn't suggesting vulnerable to a bid at 15p. But when the sp sinks so long, a bid at a premium may be lower than many of us expect or hope. Four times current price would only be 60p.
You say there are enough canny characters around to stop this happening. Not canny enough to prevent a slide to a bargain basement sp.

LL,
"For me, this means that a straightforward fund raise is already off the table. "

A number of people have made this point but as Chester points out, if it was a new investor it wouldn't be an issue. If Redmile did want a piece of the action, they could take up to 30% of the new shares without hitting the threshold.

Jamboian,
What large holding?
If someone had bought at 16p a few days back, a 25% profit in a matter of days is pretty good. So taking profit is never an "odd time".

Familiar pattern regarding the price though. Stock up with cheap shares and get a good mark up on Monday.

Konar,
"One thing I am certain of, after many years invested in Scancell, is they rarely do what you expect them to do"

Similar to when Dick Fosbury approached the bar I guess. And far from being a flop, set the standard for all that followed.

Krafty,
The BioNTech valuation is underpinned by actual sales of their Covid vaccine. Yes, they are competing in the immuno-oncology space but that is not where the market cap comes from so not really a fair comparison imo.

Ratty,
No. The revenue figures are facts. Vulpes use those figures and go through a series of what if scenarios. This is exactly what I have been doing for years. It is up to the individual to use the "what if" scenarios they feel are likely/possible.
So if you think Scancell will grab 100% of the market and make 100% net profit, you can easily get to some eye watering valuations. I choose to use more conservative estimates.

Ratty,
"Surprising that nobody has dismissed Vulpes' potential income forecasts as 'mad ramping', even though it is quite in tune with inanaco's expectations."

Tbh, when I started reading the Vulpes report I thought it was very Inanesque.
But I don't think there has much disagreement on the "revenue potential" - the market value of the Scancell targets is undeniably billions of pounds.
Interesting, Vulpes haven't attempted to translate this into an estimated share price. This depends on many variables that are impossible to forecast - market share, royalty, gross profit, net profit, further dilution etc. So rather than predicting a fanciful £8 per share, Vulpes have merely stated the improved chance of success and growing target market would result in a "tick-up" in the Sp or give a "Philip" to the sp.

Bankfool,
"But not sure what's caused this jump."
Look at the title of the thread.

Chester,
Yes, very positive but a more "real world" assessment than TD.
TD use a formula based on risk. So they only ascribe 15% of the value of Moditope as they only give it a 15% chance of success. Some of the other products have even lower chances (according to them). Combined, they come up with 29p (fully diluted)

Vulpes have taken a different approach: This is what Scancell would be worth IF SUCCESSFUL.
This seems to have caused a bit of a stir. Imagine what a stir there would be if we had confirmation of success!

Falsedawn,
Great write up. Comprehensive like TD but with less of the Uber-cautious approach.

Bermuda,
I too have reccd your post.
I do appreciate and acknowledge the tremendous contribution RG has made to Scancell.
My comment was tongue in cheek, based on a quote by I can't remember and not even for this forum.
Apologies for any offence caused.

WTP,
LOL!
It wasn't meant for this board but the cat's out of the bag now.

"@PaulBrains - I take it you're selling your holding in here and buying back cheaper later?"

Maybe he already has? Half price to a few weeks ago.

WTF,
I'm not sure, you may well be right.
All I remember was the report that she was upset.

Wild,
When patient information was first aired here, I was a little uncomfortable. I did look for myself but refrained from commenting myself or posting further snippets. I was saddened to hear the patient was very upset on learning of the sharing of data. Even then, I accepted there were two quite valid views. I think the saving of lives due to the publicity is a compelling argument for sharing but it is an individual choice.

My stance has changed since then, for the following reasons:
1) The patient has continued to post on the MM forum, presumably in the knowledge that this is being read and shared to a wider audience.

2) There is a real sense of "community" on the forum with fellow cancer sufferers, former cancer sufferers and relatives. This, as confirmed by posters here, adds real value and support.

3) If you read the tone of the posts from the patient, it is clear that they have become part of the Scancell community as well. As we too are part of that same (Scancell) community I feel justified in joining in a discussion involving them.