Member Info for RuckRover

Bermuda,
Thanks for the feedback and clarification on Ichor.
My disappointment was spawned by setting my own expectations too high I guess. Apart from that, the TD report is an excellent one stop source of information all things Scancell: The science, the products, the financial case.
Recommended reading for investors old and new.

I have just had a chance to look at the new TD report. I skipped past the science mumbo jumbo and went straight to the numbers.
I must say I am a bit under-whelmed. I was expecting around 38p and hoping for 45p having amended their model with a few recent tweaks (GlyMab deal, Modi data for example)
So the changes they have put in since the April 2022 valuation are:

Increased Moditope platform NPV value from £970M to £1220M. It's not clear why as the sales and royalty are the same in their table.
Decreased Immunobody platform NPV from £714M to £562M. Again, not sure why as sales and royalty the same.
Cash decreased from £30M to £26M

Surprisingly, they only rate the Glymab chance of success at 3.5%. I'd have expected this to have improved give the deal on Glymab.
Also surprising, the chance of success of Moditope stays at 10% despite the good recruitment and positive early data.
Conversion rate £ - $ has gone from 1.3 to 1.2
I'm not sure if the Ichor share issue has been factored in.

So their revised SP 27.4 fully diluted (not sure about Ichor)
Rather conservative I'd say, it wasn't that long ago we were at 28p anyway.

Chester,
"Jean-Michel is the footballing equivalent of signing a Top Premier League Manager."
Yes, especially if you are Oxford United.

crumbs,
It's not just beyond most scientific people, it is beyond all scientific who are not specialists in a small part of a very niche field. Anyone who thinks they understand the science are deluding themselves I'm afraid. There is a big difference between "understanding the science" and merely posting what has been written about the science. LD has had the vision and drive to study the topic at an almost molecular level, backed up by years of research. What she has done is amazing. Reading what she has done in a paper and repeating it isn't.

As regards the LD proactive interview: Personally, I haven't been expecting one. As mentioned by someone earlier (and me ever earlier than that!) the news flow does seem to be managed. I expect she will wait until the Modify trial data has been released.

MattR,
"We’re you on the thread where people actually thought the interim RNS was excellent? I never posted that day because many were bullying a poster because he said thecRNS was dull. It was horrible.. He was correct.,"

I actually described the news as "neutral". I had planned to sell following news - if the news was bad, sell to protect my capital and if the news was good, sell to realise some profits on the rise. As you say, the news was so "dull" there was no point selling or buying so I did nothing. Yes, the SP has fallen but given the spread not really worth worrying about.

rigga,

I totally understand your frustration - I share it.
The only real impact of missed deadlines is that you have to wait longer to realise the profits you hope for. There is a risk the technology will be overtaken by something else but I consider this low risk as the science is extremely complex and the patent protection good.

Much better to miss deadlines and eventually succeed than to meet all deadlines but in the end fail.

So long as people have adhered to the adage "don't risk more than you can afford to loose" there shouldn't be too much of a problem. I had hoped to collect my winnings in 2013/2014 but hey ho, still waiting.

Wild,
That's a bit like asking a football team if the first 20 minutes of the match was a success. Well yes, we haven't conceded a goal but no, we haven't scored one either.
Long way to go, looking forward to the Modi RNS tomorrow.

If it was 3 patients, then 67% was the best we could achieve apart from 100%
With hindsight, we should have had 4 patients and possibly got 75% (or 50%)
Just shows how statistically meaningless small sample sizes are.

C11,
"Surely everyone knows we first have to wait for the Golden Cross to light up like the Trafalgar Square Christmas Tree."

Absolutely! Everyone knows how great charts are at predicting what's just happened.

Cleaner,
"Had a Current Covid Pharma (eg Pfizer) RNS ed Covidity success would it have moved SP. "

Yes it would. If Scancell had a partner with the resources to continue to phase 2/3 trials then the SP would have increases significantly. Obviously, Pfizer DO have such resources. They also have established contracts and sales contacts.

Wild,
In context, bad news would have been Covidity doesn't work. Good news would have been Covidity works and we have found a partner.
I guess the validation of immunobody and Avidimab is actually very good news but beyond the comprehension of the wider market.

Wait for the big reveal.
There seems to be a pattern:
Essential news - new chairman.
Negative news - Issue of equity.
Neutral news - Covidity works but no partner yet.

Next news should be stonking- Modi works (plus deal?)

Cleaner,
Yes, rather a muted response SP wise given the news. I can understand people being neutral on the potential commercialisation of Covidity but the validation of immunobody and Avidimab is huge in the context of Scancell's pipeline.

Empty,
Good point re patents - information has to be kept out the public domain until the application has been filed.

TF,
You had to ask? Lol.

Rigga,
"I wonder if anyone from Scancell reads this bulletin board."
Yes, I believe the board is monitored constantly by the Scancell investor communications team.

Two,
".after the bell. Those in the know care to confirm if it's a buy?"
Yes, I can confirm it is a buy, or possibly a sell.
I makes little difference either way. Over time, the volume of buys will equal sells. If it was a buy, there will be an equivalent number of sells. If it was a sell there will be an equivalent number of buys.
So relax and chill.

Crumbs,
"I'm not here for Covidity... is anyone else?"
Well I'm not either. There's nothing built into the current SP for Covidity but that won't stop the share being marked down on the hint of a bit of negative news.

Crumbs,
I'm not predicting a 10p drop, although I can't entirely rule it out.
I was responding to violin's comment stating he expects a big uptake following the Covidity news. I agree, if it's good there will be buying , if it's bad the sp will drop and there will be buying at the lower price (whatever that turns out to be)

Crumbs,
"What's bad"?
There are several possible scenarios.
The good:
We are pleased to report the Covid trial was a success and we have found a partner who will take it through trials and to market.

The bad (or not so good):
We are pleased to report the Covid trial was a success and we are still seeking a partner
We are pleased to report the Covid trial was a success but we will not be taking it further.
Unfortunately the Covid trial showed no greater immunity than vaccines already on the market.

So if the news is good the SP will rise.
If the news is bad, the SP will fall and then recover.
If the MODIFY news comes first, the impact of any bad news on Covidity will be lessened.
AIMO of course.