Member Info for RuckRover

DeAar,

Yes, I'm hoping deal will provide the necessary funding. Let's hope they do better than 1% up front though.
You still have to consider the possibility of low or no deals and the effect on the SP.

LL,
Redmile will go over the threshold when they convert the loan notes, so that issue will need to be addressed anyway.
But as you raised the issue it made me think. It would be better if a NEW investor came in. That could dilute Redmile enough to keep them below the 30%

C11,

"To those who Rec’d Crackin’s 09:41.
Why are you invested here?"

I am invested as I believe these shares are worth at LEAST the revised TD estimate of 30p (fully diluted) , preferably 80p and possibly £2.
If you consider £2 a possibility then you must also consider 15p a possibility. What if there is a hiccup? What if extra funding is needed? In this case, the funds will likely come from Redmile. I can't imagine them been too happy having to pay a lot more than they already have (10.6p average)

I was initially disappointed at the MODI RNS. But once you begin to understand the circumstances and terminology you realise that in reality the news could be a lot better (or worse) than it seems. Until more data (more patients, longer time period) is available we won't know just how good (or bad) it is.

So make you own judgement as far as investing goes. Ask yourself, can I ride it out if this goes to 15p? Because it might.

"Stable" means anything from a 20% increase to a 29% reduction.

I think they ring a bell

GF,
Yes, I thought the response was "muted". Didn't like to say for fear of being called gloomy!
You are right - 11 years ago we hit 60p on Modi news. Now, 11 years closer to market with really positive efficacy data from human trials we are a third of that. I was expecting 25-27p today at the very least. Nice to see TD getting closer to my 40p valuation though :)

Nice to see an increase in the TD valuation - they have upped the chance of success for Moditope from 10%to 12.5%

Now might be a good time for that Proactive interview.

Yes I was trying to be helpful. It would help the board if the title of your post bore some relevance to the content rather than always posting under "incredible news for Trish"
Whether you accept the advice is entirely your choice of course.
You state:
"Likewise I have made mistakes reading posts here ."
But not half as bad as the mistakes people have made reading yours.

Ripley,
It may be an idea to respond to a current thread or start a new one of your own with an appropriate title.

You may want to look at the difference between “thread view” and “message view”. message view will show you all latest posts regardless of thread.

Violindog,

". I have slowly built up my holding over many years and to finally see a handsome profit evaporating is disheartening."

Sadly this is a story I have seen numerous times in the 13 years I have been invested here. You could included my own story in this. I have seen my investment drop to virtually nothing when we were at 3.5p. Fortunately, along the way I have taken some profits and used them to pay for my wedding, a honeymoon and new car.

What I have found is that in order to make informed investment decisions there are a number of popular (on these boards) myths that need to be recognised. Some of these are:

This is a no risk investment (it isn't)
Buy and hold is the best policy. (It isn't, buy the lows and sell the highs)
It's about the number you hold (it's not, it's about the difference between what you buy at and what you sell out)
The science will see us through (there's far much mor too it)
This is worth £8+ (maybe but many years and much more dilution)

Those are my thoughts - they have kept me sane the past 8 years. So take them or leave them - your choice.

Personally I wouldn't set a fixed time period. If they hit £1 sooner you may consider selling (or a portion) if they are still languishing at 20p in a year you may consider holding longer. Consider the facts and act accordingly.
Whatever you decide, I wish you the best of luck. Hopefully, for both of us, there will be a bid of £2 in the next 12 months.

Empty,
"The reason that the valuation is irrelevant is very simple: Scancell aren’t selling the company in 2023"

The TD "valuation" isn't a price tag inviting big pharma to purchase. It is an indication of what the share may be worth in the next few years in order to help potential investors to decide whether it is something for them. It sets a range of values representing possible outcomes 27.4p being fair value today, £4.72 being a possibility if everything were to succeed.

Surely, at 18p this is a good buy even at 27.4

Bear in mind, not one single variable that goes into the formula can be predicted with accuracy so it is as stated an "estimate".

Palpable = palatable

Earlier in the day I asked:
Who was it who said "you can never guarantee results in mice will be replicated in humans"?

Crumbs correctly answered Lindy Durrant. Obviously crumbs HAS been paying attention.
It struck me that many on the board either don't pay attention or pay attention to the wrong people. It seems that the views of people with relevant knowledge (burble, Bermuda, ivy and Prof Durrant herself) are largely dismissed in favour of the more palpable but erroneous views of self proclaimed "experts"
Just an observation and IMO.

Wiggy,

"But it is not what Scancell think they are worth."

You really are confused today.
There are multiple "worths" - what they are worth today (current SP) , what they should be worth TODAY (according to TD), what they will be worth in 3/6/12 months (depends on results, data, sentiment and takeover bid), what they COULD be worth if all goes well at an undefined point in the future.

Honestly, my personal view is that Jean-Michelle and LD would consider 33p what SCLP are worth TODAY. That doesn't mean they would sell the company for that TODAY, they would much prefer to sell at £2 in the future or £3 in the further out future. I also don't think they would want to hold out another 6 years for £4.72. They will want to monetise assets for the benefit of themselves, shareholders and patients.
AIMO.

Wiggy,
"I think we are in danger of mixing TD’s view with Scancell's view. Would LD recommend a 33p offer today?"
Of course not!
As has been explained, the TD valuation is what they estimate SCLP are worth TODAY considering the risks.
Any PI, has the opportunity today to buy at 18p. It appears, there are people willing to sell at this level. There certainly wouldn't be enough idiots selling at 18p for a company to buy the lot. Most PIs would no accept 33p either.
This is NOT a price tag for a company wishing to buy the lot. Even the most grumpy, pessimistic holder is hoping for more than 33p.

Kash,
You make a valid point. Regardless of the scientific merits of the different companies, they are all chasing the same market. 20 companies (21 if you include Scancell) can't take 100% of that market each.

Crumbs,
"Ruck, I'm sure it'll be Lindy? "

Yes it was, on the AGM recording.
Well done, you have been paying attention.

"Until those phase I/II results are in, nobody knows, not even Scancell to what degree the unprecedented results in mice will be replicated in humans."

Here's a question:
Who was it who said "you can never guarantee results in mice will be replicated in humans"?

Just to see who's been paying attention.

Bermuda,
"I think we're in danger of mixing the valuation and potential valuation here. The TD valuation is as of today - what TD believe Scancell are worth right now"

Spot on!
All TD have enumerated is the question:
"How much is a company that has a between 2% and 10% chance of being worth £4.72 in 6-7 years time worth today?"
Answer: 27.4p

Empty,
"The reason that Trinity has to note that the “current share price does not reflect potential” is that their understandably-cautious risking gives no clue as to the upside quantum in the success case"

Actually there is a big clue. All you need to do is use the TD revenue and royalty figures as published and remove the (or reduce) the risk element.

So if you use a 100% success figure across all platforms, the 27.4p (fully diluted) becomes £4.72. You still have to factor in time, so given that TD are estimating revenue from 2029/2030 an NPV would be £2 (using the TD 12.5% discount rate)

So as crumbs says, 33p (27.4p diluted) today does seem fair value taking into account the risk and length of time. The current SP of 18p represents a fair old discount to that. So it is up to the individual investor to decide whether or not it is worth the risk. You can back an odds on favourite (like Sainsburys) for a few % or a 20/1 outsider.