Member Info for RuckRover

You can buy a hat that says "one size fits all" this means it fits different shape and size heads, not that you could wear it as a pair of pants.

So I'd say "universal" applies to the population it treats and not to cancer types.

All IMO so if you want to wear your hat as pants feel free to do so!

TF, Burble,

Like you, I have been invested for many years (since July 2012)

However I disagree with "we're waiting for something transformative to happen" statement.

There have been a number of transformative events, just that none of them have resulted in a permanent transformation in the share price.

Thanks Bermuda,

I think the inability to hold in an ISA would be a major factor in deciding whether to hold or sell up.

Bermuda,

IF Scancell were to go down the delist and privatise path, what would happen to current private investors. Would they be made to sell and if so, at what price?

Violin,

“ .I can't understand why it wouldn't get snapped up by a major”

You have asked this question many times and people have told you exactly why.

1) current shareholders wouldn’t accept a low price

2) big pharma won’t pay a premium price until there is reduction in risk.

The latter will only happen when there is more trial data and progress.

It really is as simple as that.

Empty, I'm not sure about "clearly" but it was certainly one of the three possibilities I posted on the other channel earlier.

1. In the spotlight as in "prime time TV"

2. As in "priming" the immune system

3. Becoming the primary or first line of treatment.

I think it could be any or all of the above. Perhaps this will become apparent in the presentation?

Dracula,

" I thought Big Pharmas would be all over Sclp with the amount of very good progress they have made In the last two years."

This has been explained numerous time on this board and by the Chairman JMC.

Pharma have loads of money. They would much rather pay £4 for a near certainty than a "cheap" price for a high risk investment. So what's "cheap"? If they could buy for 11p they probably would but (as again been debated many times here) that's simply not going to happen.

You do highlight the point that the definition of "cheap" is relative to expectation. When I first invested in 2012 (at 13p), my expectation was £3.20. Today, with 4 times as many share in issue, my expectation is 80p. Anything below this is "cheap". For those who had an inflated expectation in 2012 and have failed to factor in dilution, anything under £8 will be cheap.

The term "cheap buyout" keeps popping up without actually defining what "cheap" means.

As many have already stated there is absolutely no chance of a buyout at the current share price (11p) which has been described as "derisory" by our second largest shareholder.

The share has been valued at nearly three times that (30p) by Trinity Delta. This takes into account the likelihood of success (risk) and when returns will be materialised (time). Both of these have been on the Conservative side. Any bid would HAVE to be at a premium to current value (not price). A 50% premium wouldn't be unreasonable (45p). Even that may be considered cheap by Redmile, Vulpes and some private investors.

So to those worried that Scancell are vulnerable to a takeover I'd say they are but a a price most shareholders would be happy with, certainly not 11p!

Violin,

If nobody sold, nobody would be able to buy - chill.

Bob,

"They have Immunobody at 5 to 10% success. I think it should be a bitt higher than that!!! "

Fwiw , so do I. But therein lies the problem - it's anyone's guess. Hopefully the opportunity to buy at 11p will pay dividends when it reaches 100%. The risk takers will be rewarded.

Bob,

"People can say your nuts but a fair valution is £10b to £40b"

That may well be a fair valuation once trials are complete, approval granted and the treatment being taken up by the major health care bodies. That is a long way off.

Sadly, the valuation today has to take into account 1) risk and 2) time to be revenue earning. TD take these factors into account and have come up with a value today of 30p.

This should automatically increase with the passage of time.

Ciaskin,

Yes, that’s the one.

Just do a search using "Modi" and sort by most recent.

Nice write up on the MacMillan forum.

Violin,

I can’t imagine many have held tight for ten years and have now decided to sell at 10p.

Violin,

"makes one wonder why on earth one of those companies don't snap up Scancell while we are sitting at a miserable sub 100m market capital."

It's because there aren't enough shareholders stupid enough to sell for a "derisory" 10p. The price is an irrelevant figure representing what a fraction of a percent are desperate enough to sell at any price. The majority of these sellers probably shouldn't have invested in the first place - due to lack of research or an inability to hold long term.

I have found it quite amusing following the "under valued" thread. It isn't "undervalued". It is "valued" by Trinity Delta at 30p today, and multiple pounds by 2030 (if trials are successful). We need to be viewing this as "underpriced" rather than "undervalued".

I'd be fairly certain that any bid under £1 would not be considered by enough holders to effect a takeover.

As Oscar Wilde said, "there's a man who knows the price of everything but the value of nothing"

" It's good to see Lindy Durrant being given the opportunity to present those results at one of the biggest scientific confences in the World and at a time when there is renewed hope and interest surrounding the whole field. She deserves this moment and I hope she enjoys every second."

Well said Bermuda, totally concur.

Matt,

Firstly, thanks for the welcome dose of reality. I was beginning to think my recollection of LD saying don't expect any significant funding from Genmab for five years was a false memory. So thanks for confirming it wasn't.

But, she did not rule out smaller payments being made for milestones that may happen in a shorter time frame. I took that to mean similar to the upfront payment. Hopefully this will mitigate the need for more dilution.

Secondly, I don't think being sold short is a significant worry. 1) because Scancell wouldn't accept it and 2) because no big pharma is going to make a low ball offer. JMC at the AGM said big pharma were awash with cash but very risk averse. So they would rather wait for data, reduce the risk and accept they will have to pay more ultimately.

So no danger of a 30p offer next week but perhaps a chance of a £1-£2 offer in a couple of years if all goes to plan in the trials.

Lastly, you talk of shareholders being 'hammered' with dilution. Unfortunately, getting a drug to market takes a lot of money so dilution is an inevitability. This is why the pie in the sky valuations of £8, £10, £12 were never on the cards.

I'd have to understand it before I could get annoyed.

SP Static for months then up 10% on no news.

Anyone else get the feeling the SP is being carefully managed?