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82% of cinema audiences are under the age of 45. As you say, Steve, the over 60s are the risk group and it isn’t just cinemas they will avoid if they are worried. They will defer all activities.

I find it interesting that it’s only the derampers who bring up “100p by Friday”

It’s an easy, lazy approach to deramp to present a straw man argument when it just doesn’t exist.

The BoD can make that decision. Investors aren’t involved in decisions to close if the purpose is to preserve cash reserves and now force studios to re-evaluate their strategy to defer releases and content.

We need to keep in mind, Cineworld was completely closed and reached hights of 100p. I’m not suggesting we will see that but this is about recognising value in the strategy and importantly the long term sustainability of a business model that has turned profit year on year, pre-covid.

Will be interesting to read the news from the source and what their play is. Mooky is a shrewd business man who’s family has seen cinema through the Spanish flu, two world wars and a number of recessions.

The problem is Alok Sharma has given a hall pass to tenants to defer rent and supported them with eviction bans. It’s why we have seen Hammersons hit so hard.

This is a valid alternative view.

We need to remind ourselves, the share price was HIGHER when Cineworld were closed. Why? Because they demonstrated an ability to survive and recover. If this is a strategy to preserve cash reserves and appease lenders, it should be welcome. It will also send a clear message to competitors and to studios, you need cinemas just as much as we need content. Studios are too nervous to put out a big budget movie on PVOD. It’s been tried twice and didn’t work.

Don’t forget these cinema were all closed for 6 months and the share price ironically was higher. This is a lot a recovery play and if that means changing the strategy because of studios unwillingness to put out content then, as some are saying, this is favourable.

I do have sympathies with the 5000 staff, who will be let go, ahead of Christmas.

IAG did something similar letting 9000 staff go.

Good post, Solar Steve. Sorry your thread was hijacked by the parasitic. Agree that this is a postponement and as for closures, we need clarity which the RNS will afford.

I believe Cineworld lease all of their cinemas. They sold the last few and leased them back.

This was favourable as they now have the ability to negotiate rent or defer it.

As for repurposing cinemas, this will be hard for landlords as they are often in retail parks with busy car parks and traffic to restaurants and I don’t see permission being granted.

*upsell merchandise
*living room experience

Good luck, Louie. I hope the strategy works for you.

I’ve had awful luck trading as I tried it a few times with shares; selling at a loss, and then got back in higher as the share was in auction and recovered quickly after. It taught me to either remain invested or look elsewhere if the fundamentals didn’t support long term recovery.

I see cinema surviving long term and I believe this decision by Cineworld will be a shock to studios as it’s going to see a lot of rival cinemas contemplating to do the same. Studios need cinemas to support big budgets, attract big talent and help market and upset merchandise like toys etc. It’s about the brand and cinema promotes this which the loving rock experience just can’t replicate. This has a huge downstream and supply chain impact and then throws Hollywood as an industry into question.

I’m keeping my eyes open for Monday 0700, along with everyone else. For now, I’ll remind investors not to panic, not to get emotional and avoid engaging the derampers who are set about to instil worry and irrational decisions. Look at the facts and make the decision best for you when you have all information at hand.

Couldn’t agree more.

Many new posters, some as transparent as 1 post begins d their history are now coming out with their words of wisdom, to long term investors, saying that cinema is no longer a viable business and that have been lured in my the rampers.

Investors got in because:

1. Cineworld prior to 2020 has never reported a loss. It’s a proven money making business.
2. Debt levels reduced from $4bn net debt to $3.4bn and their presentations made it clear that following the buyout of Regal they incurred debt, but they were making money and paying this debt back.
3. Studios have an opportunity to go PVOD. Why didn’t they? Why can I not watch Bond on PVOD or Top Gun 2? Because piracy is rife and the PVOD model won’t generate revenue when the experience in the living room is the same after a few months on cable. The consumer won’t pay a premium it’s a psychological thing and they yearn the experience.
4. Leisure and hospitality got hit the hardest and many see this as a long term recovery play.

Let us see what Cineworld have to say. The market and sharesholders willasseas their strategy and rationale behind this. If this avoids share dilution then that will be welcome news.

Investors should take comfort that new posters, who have never posted here before, are flooding this board with sell recommendations.

They are keen to see an overreaction. Some have cited that the market may see this as a strategic play to reduce cash burn and close markets where outgoings are higher than incomes. This is now secret we have seen some U.K. cinemas close because they were not viable and remain closed for this reason despite the government approval to reopen.

I’ll keep an eye open for 0700 RNS. My advice is to do the same and watch the threads and circle jerks from new posters as they “lol” each other and give their 5p predications.

We need to keep in mind that re-opening was always a staggered strategy.

If the news being leaked that they are closing again, we need it verified by cineworld, which regions and for how long.

One merit of closing the U.K. and Ireland is that their terms with U.K. landlords may be less favourable than the U.S where rent could be totally deferred for a year. This is just a hypothetical.

My point remains, we are speculating unless of course you have inside information, which we are not privy to.

I believe we will see some comms from Cineworld on Monday to set the record straight. If not, then I would also agree as a long term investor, Cineworld have done themselves a huge disservice.

1. Explain what they are doing. What their strategy and plan is.
2. Where they are with landlords, lenders and studios regarding content.
3. What their next steps are and when they will be communicating next.

Everything else is just conjecture.

I also see the parasites coming out. Some citing they have been posting for some time when they have had no presence here.

Ignore the noise and wait for the news from the source.

Good luck, all.

That is comforting as I believe only ~20% of cineworld is actually traded. The rest is held by the family trust and institutional investors.

Releases* plural

In shorty, they are not banking exclusively on Bond.

I also appreciate that Cineworld are not just seeking waivers for December 2020 debt covenants, rather, seeking them for June 2021 as well.

Good post, Mark.

We know Cineworld citied they can perform as-is to Sept 21. They are indeed banking on the recovery in 2021 to see cash reserves build up before they consider any additional fund raising.

I cited that March 2021 is the right time to take this checkpoint. This will be seeking clarity on vaccine and where case are at.

Evening All,

We need to remind ourselves the share price was 51p prior to the H1 results. It dropped to this level because Disney deferred Black Widow. The share took a drop to 43p following these results and then made its way back up to 51p again. Since then we have seen a gradual drop to 39p. On what news? Funding was there to Sept 21, remaining open and performing as-is. We knew that debt covenant waivers had not yet been received for December. News that Q4 had a number of titles pushed. WW84 to December 20 and I too believe, Bond uncertainty was factored in this drop as well. I was banking on Bond remaining set for November and the debt covenant waivers taking the share price back to the 60s. I predict we will see a drop on Monday, but nowhere as dramatic as the H1 results. The uncertainties and cash burn is all news we have received and has all been factored and the big battle is the recovery to 2019 levels, which Johnht even posted will come in 2021, albeit at 80-85%. This is something an investor will gladly take.

I agree with others, studios are short sighted that 2019 attendance will come immediately in 2021. They won’t. I can see 80-85% like Johnht posted with his S&P analyst forecast, but there needs to be expectations set and give and take with studios.

I still like the marathon and not a sprint pace, Warner Bros touted with Tenet. Given they have now reached ~$300m now and factoring Thanksgiving and California opening more, should eventually see $400m.

For now we have to keep in mind, Jonny posted a great thread about comparisons with Rolls and INTU. Both have not had successive profits and being in the black, like Cineworld. Granted this year has been a mess, it demonstrates their business model, when covid is out of the way, does work and is profitable. They have not failed earlier covenant tests and lenders, scored 62% higher at 3.4x ND/EBITDA when they needed 5.5x will all look favourably at this and consider long term prospects. The biggest vote of confidence is studios maintain theatrical release and avoiding PVOD. It has failed twice. Trolls 2 and Mulan and not a strategy they want to employ again, for big blockbusters.

Personally, I’m looking forward to see Open Roads Honest Thief; a Liam Neeson cat and mouse thriller which is a tried and tested formula.

For those considering dumping to buy in cheaper, ask yourself, did you achieve this last time? Or did you end up selling at a loss and then witnessing a recovery and buying back in higher than your earlier exit? This can be frustrating when the best thing to do is ask yourself, why are you invested and do you see a recovery in 2021?

Good luck to all.

Good post, Khan. I agree, this isn’t a cancellation of the movie in favour of PVOD. This sends a further message, the theatrical exhibition is just too important to throw away.

There is going to be continued volatility with this share until we retrieve positive news on the vaccine and Cineworld’s finance position.

Despite being a shareholder in Cineworld, I sympathise with a lot of independent cinemas. Cineworld can weather this storm. The independent operators will really struggle and I can see them now requesting guarantees from studios - maintain the slot or advise us now and we'll close the cinemas. Their cut needs to be higher from movie takings to cover losees incurred during 2020.

We are due other good news - debt convenant waivers and vaccine news. So it's not a lost cause.