Member Info for RS2002

After your clumsy RR share price prediction of 90p, I don’t think you are a credible poster. (RR now 123p)

Stay, Johnht. Your input and appreciation for global cinema is appreciated. I want to see you join investors on the 2021 box office recovery you cite will see 80-85% of 2019 admissions. We will have the champagne on ice and a lamb balti ready for you, when we reach that milestone.

*knock on impact

Cineworld have a subscription service it’s called Unlimited. For $23/month, you can watch as many movies as you want and you get a subsidy on concessions. It’s so popular they have 300,000 members in the US alone.

I too tire of the streaming vs cinema argument, it’s been discussed to the end of earth and it is widely accepted that it co-exists and is recognised as a secondary revenue stream. By removing box office, you introduce risk of piracy and remove a lucrative revenue generation that up sells thanks to merchandise and advertising deals that are with billions. Remove that for a living room experience and the k pick on impact is tremendous beyond the theatrical experience that many rightfully counter with.

His family has been in the movie business for 90 years....

Try the sofa; I have much luck there...

Great post, Moola.

Mooky (CEO) is being pragmatic. This hibernation will servce four purposes:

1. Reduce cash burn and see them preserve finances beyond the original September 2021 date they gave (perfoming as-is).

2. Address the abiguity with studios on releases and ensure they remain committed to support cinemas/theaters.

3. Engage with Governments (UK and US) on support, grants and further tax reliefs.

4. Assess the covid cases - observe if indeed hostpital admissions and mortality remains low during autumn and then assess when to re-open (with a catalogue of movies before the huge 2021 year with so many on offer).

I'm avoiding banking on the basis their insurance arms will be facing a lot of litigation and potential remediation, worse if there is mis-selling akin to PPI or Interest Swaps.

Car dealers are already putting goether a class action on "interruption insurance" for example.

Source: https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/businesses-forced-to-close-by-lockdown-may-now-be-able-to-claim-on-interruption-insurance-policies-thanks-to-high-court-ruling/202655

It's always good to have a balanced portfolio.

Good luck with your decision.

You have to do what is right for your risk appetite, Laidback.

Good luck with Tullow Oil; I too am invested with them. They make profit on the basis crude remains above $40/barrel.

Let us hope as winter approaches demand for crude increases and in turn crudes gradual recovery sees the share price much higher.

With all cinema chains suffering losses, lenders won't default all of them. They will work with them to review their cost saving measures and work with them to support a recovery into Q1 2021.

I have to say the shutdown was voluntary by Cineworld and to me, as an investor, they are making decisions to preserve the viability of their business into next year.

Will await further updates from the source.

Good luck to all investors.

If Cineworld (pre-covid) had a failing business model, reporting losses each year, even just one year, I'd be inclined to say the writing was on the wall - streaming is going to seal its fate.

Alas, not the case.

It's not just me or the board of directors, or Avia, HSBC and the other majority shareholders who make-up 70-80% of all shares, leaving just ~20% for the private investor to trade.

The studios are the one who have recognised that because of piracy, streaming just doesn't generate the revenue - Mulan and Trolls 2 both reported losses, despite the initial uptake, they then ALSO stole revenue from those streams as secondary.

This is a recovery play along with aviation and hospitality like IHG which was 3150 back in March, it's about patience and recognising long term value.

We just saw Mooky on Sky News, the CEO of the company state he could see a re-open in 2 months.

This would time nicely with Wonder Woman 84 and Dune and a bunch of Xmas movies that should see folks on holidays/school leave turn up in droves.

Not that I discredit your rumour, Mallys83, I'm sure you're just as credible as the CEO of Cineworld when it comes to these matters.

Why aren't you back at RR telling everyone it's going 32p?

You are a very considerate poster, warning so many strangers on how to invest.

Very altruistic of you...

The more noise the better; Mooky was on Sky News saying he is in talks with the government about support/relief.

Stay tuned.

Saw the interview on Sky News, go to YouTube and stream Sky News and use the rewind feature to pull back. I forget the time-stamp but it was between 10-12.

Mooky has provided me with the confidence, he knows what he’s doing and going into hibernation mitigates the risk of share dilution.

This is logical, they declared in the H1 report, they have enough funds to PERFORM AS-IS to September; by closing now and awaiting movie releases (or to put in his words, having a supermarket open without food) he will see Cineworld preserve more cash.

“The Group’s forecasts and projections, taking account of reasonably possible changes in trading performance, show that the Group should be able to operate within the level of its current facilities for at least 12 months from the approval date of these interim consolidated financial statements”

This is all about a recovery play so I'm happy to be patient. I'm not out to be millionaire overnight rather I have my expectations set at realistic targets.

Page 6 - Source: https://www.cineworldplc.com/sites/cineworld-plc/files/reports-presentation/2020/interim-results-september-2020-v2.pdf

Johnht you may be able to make some chums to discuss this on the Indian/Bollywood forums.

You'll be pleased to know that India is progressing with the re-open of its cinemas at 50% capacity. A lot of Indian patrons are elated at his news as I don't need to tell you just how subscribed cinema is in their culture.

Source: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/cinemas-can-reopen-with-50-seating-from-october-15/articleshow/78416766.cms

As for their performance, pre-covid, they demonstrated growth adied by Hollywood films like ‘Avengers: Endgame’ and ‘The Lion King’, for the first time the gross box office collection in India crossed Rs 10,000 crore mark ($142m) in 2019, witnessing 11.6% growth over the previous year.

Just imagine, each year, seeing ~10% growth not only attractive to global box office but plenty of enjoyable conversations for you to have with these patrons.

Source: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/media/entertainment/indian-box-office-crosses-rs-10000-crore-mark-in-2019/articleshow/74139131.cms?from=mdr

Cineworld is not an exclusive victim of covid. This won't support the narrative from others; it's a recovery play amongst other cinema operators. Those who believe the likes of Vue, Odeon (AMC) will sweep in a take out Cineworld's cinemas are delusional. They too are facing difficulties and now is certainly not the time for expansion. This is about restructuring and tightening finances and from what I have witness so far, Cineworld are the only one who are putting these aggressive measures to practice:

Suspended all unnecessary capital expenditureKey Liquidity Actions
Secured rent relief and deferral with most of their landlords
Discussed with all key suppliers to reduced costs and implement payment plans
Furloughed the majority of our part time, hourly cinema employees and head office employees
Deferred salaries for most of the HQ and full time employees and deferred full salaries of Group Executives and Directors
Accessed government support programs: US CARES Act, UK furlough scheme, Business rates relief
Suspended quarterly dividend payments
Secured $361m additional liquidity
and now... set about to hibernate their UK and US cinemas.

The case studies were done.

Streaming is rife with piracy and the psychology of paying a premium for the same living room experience, when the same content will come a little later, means studios won't be able to recover their budgets.

2019 may have seen a reduction of ~4% of box office admissions, but it was one of the most protfitable for studios.

Do your own research.

The question you should be asking is, given VOD is a decade old technology, why did the studios defer their movies 2021? Why is 2021 absolutely jam-packed with big blocksters when they could go streaming via VOD?

I'll let you ponder that as I head into a meeting.

Thanks for the concern gents, I've got a balanced portfolio.