Member Info for RS2002

LESS than 7% according to analysts:
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/CINE.L/Probability-Of-Bankruptcy

If you were trading debt securities, not equities trading, debt at Grade B (Fitch) is around 6-9% risk of default, so the link is accurate.

Regardless, read the H1 report. They have sufficient liquidity to keep them going as-is (all open) to September 21.

2021 will be Cineworld’s big recovery.

Everything now is mitigation and cost reductions and awaiting covid to pass. My prediction is March 2021 we will see Cineworld back to 80-85% admissions. More than enough to sustain itself and turn over profit.

Johnht even posted this himself quoting S&P analysts.

1. No one will afford you the best advice. You need to consider all the facts and read the communications that Cineworld release.

2. This has dropped before in March when Covid was completely new and little was known about the virus. A vaccine wasn’t even contemplated.

3. The financial situation was unknown and how long the closures would be.

4. The share price found its ground between 35-48p and this has been a common trading ground.

There are a lot of desperate derampers spamming this BB with “woe is me” “my sons, girlfriends dad has shares” and “5p-15p predictions” worse, “I’m not invested but this looks awful” “not sure if this has been posted but it looks like Cineworld may be closing” threads after threads.

You need to ignore the noise and the desperados. Look at the fundamentals, this is high risk but also high reward. Fundamentals show this is a precarious play with high debt and limited liquidity for another year. They are banking on recovery. What recovery? Covid and footfall and the two are not mutually exclusive.

My advice is wait for tomorrow 0700, sleep on this and wait for the news tomorrow. If the recovery play is too high risk for you, exit and accept a loss if you’re nervous and can not afford to lose any money. If you can assess the response they strategy and accept the amount invested is something you can lose, look to average down or hold your shares for a longer recovery which we anticipate being Q1 2021.

Personally? I see China as the case study. They have recovered well and restored cinema box office. I won’t post the merits of cinema it’s been done a million time’s but it’s a model that works and will continue to post Covid.

Good luck and don’t be emotional and don’t even reply to the circle jerk threads. Let them entertain each other in their echo chambers of 15p predictions.

Media outlets are reporting the ****tail of Remdesivir steroid drug and Regeneron's antibody drug has worked wonders. Regeneron's antibody drug is still in trials but it bodes well for treatments for such a high profile patient.

If Mooky and the BoD can advise they are doing this and this will contribute to a covenant waiver and avoid fund raising, I’m sure shareholders and investors will be happy, as will the market.

We are in Q4 already, this year is drawing to a close quicker than you think.

When you have a number of aces up your sleeve, you certainly can play with a good hand:

1. 10 years of profit and performance to demonstrate a sustainable business model (pre-covid) in contrast to companies who reported annual losses pre-covid.
2. A Paramount decree elapsing opening studios and media giants to take over and form their own cinema group; in turn up-selling merchandise and other packages to manipulate marketing presence during trailers as well (Disney holiday packages anyone?).
3. 2021 with the largest listing of movies and for Universal, their biggest year in history ($4bn box office in the making).
4. Vaccines significantly ahead of where we were in March when closures were about.
5. Sufficient liquidity to perform as-is to September 2021 (11 months).
6. 20% family stake and option to go private if need be.

Play your hand carefully.

As others keep saying, PVOD doesn’t work. It’s not enough to sustain margins let alone profits. What was once a dodgy camcorder copy, will now be 4K 5.1 rip from PVOD to streaming sites within hours.

The common man won’t justify spending a £20-30 premium for a living room experience when they can get the same a few months later. VOD is a decade old and these days with piracy, studios reclaim most of their costs and profits from theaters.

“Back in my day it was half a shilling to gain admittance and we used to get up to much shenanigans” *places hand on Johnnys knee*

Who else is envisaging Johnny going into care homes, asking residents for their opinion as they read this? Microphone and cassette recorder, in hand.

Once the share price opens out of auction, how will people make a position when the recovery could come very quickly? Dangerous and I would advise caution reading suggestions on shorting when it can spectacularly backfire.

The guardian and daily mail have readers over the age of 45. The average age of the Mail is 58 for example. The peak demographics for cinema are under 45s with 15-24 the biggest. In short, stop asking pensioners for their opinion. Look for the main demographic but that will mean having to go into schools and colleges which will land you in trouble, so no, don’t do that either.

This is indeed a clever poker hand being played by Mooky. He has the attention of Hollywood. I believe he will commit to this closure if studios continue to be uncooperative. I’ll await fact and refer to the RNS rather than Billy Bob telling me this will be 5p tomorrow.

If the RNS is logical and well thought out with news on the recovery plan, I don’t believe it will drop as much as some are saying. If, a big if, the debt covenant waivers are in their too, perhaps explaining the rationale this could remain flat or even go up.

I.e lender 1 told us they would waive the covenant test if we preserved cash flow. Ergo we are hibernating until Feb 2021 (3 months). At which point we will open up again and will have content for you. This way we can asses winter and mitigate the uncertainty of more cases.

I know Saihajj is a fake cloned account but that did make me laugh! I love North Indian food so I’d also take you up on that offer.

Sorry if it’s been posted before lol

I would respect these posters more if they said, “I’m looking to drive down sentiment. Here is another log for that fire. “

Wait for the update, tomorrow 0700. Read it carefully. Understand the rationale behind the closure to preserve cash flow. Where their conversations are at with lenders, landlords and studios. Assess the recovery plan and decide. Sell at a loss or hold for a recovery. If funds permit and the sentiment on the recovery is good, average down. Either way, it’s your decision and it’s your money you chose to invest in this recovery play. Ignore the parasites who have never posted here before giving you suggestions. They have a narrative.

I see we still have so many new posters with their words of wisdom and wild predictions. The RNS on Monday will reveal what the position is, but to suggest a closure now means no guarantee of reopening when 2021 has BILLIONS of dollars worth of movies lined up, is just noise.

If this company had no strategy, they would remain open. This is about survival and a reason why so many are invested in this RECOVERY play. Many accept that 2021 is the real year this will improve and turn over significant admission.

Our resident shelter even confessed to this himself, citing 80-85% of recovery of admissions to 2019 levels in 2021. This is something many investors would grab with both hands.

Ignore the ramps and certainly the deramps with their wild predictions. This went 28p and then quickly found ground at 36p when it was closed in March before additional finances were disclosed. This will find a bottom in the 30s but it is entirely dependent on the news we receive on Monday.

It’s been quoted before, Zoro. The companies you draw comparison to have all seen losses year on year pre-covid. Cineworld doesn’t fall into that camp. They have seen profit and each year, following the take over of Regal, net debt reduce. Of course, post covid is a different world but lenders look at recovery. Cineworld have little assets so it would be a far bigger loss to lenders if they defaulted loans. They will want to see the recovery. This is a change in strategy and I believe we are back to March as we await further updates on vaccine and what this “second wave” is all about. Will it be a fizzle and will we see significantly less hospital admissions and mortality? If Italy is anything to go by, which saw some of the worst, the suggestion is it will.

I don’t believe we will see a share suspension. It didn’t happen last time they closed. As I said in another thread, the irony is they had a higher share price when they were closed. This is about demonstrating the rationale behind their decision.

Don’t discount that. It’s all about the RNS and the logic it presents. This won’t be received well by the deramper posters who are busy spamming this BB.

Lol yep these are the derampers hoping to spam the BB so their post remains at the top. Desperate tactics.