Lithium prices are falling, but the golden times are yet to come7 Aug 2025 08:05
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Lithium has fallen more than 80 percent this year, mainly due to oversupply and cooling demand for electric vehicles. However, the market is showing signs of stabilising, and demand for batteries and renewable energy should grow in the long term.
The decline in demand for electric vehicles is also affecting demand for lithium. The high prices of electric vehicles and the lack of charging infrastructure are slowing their wider adoption. Although electric vehicle prices are falling, they still remain more expensive than traditional vehicles. In addition, the EU's lukewarm approach to mandatory electromobility is being added, with some countries preferring a more balanced approach that takes into account not only environmental but also economic factors.
Causes of the fall in lithium prices
The fall in lithium prices in 2023 and 2024, when prices fell by more than 80 percent, is attributed to oversupply, which outpaced demand growth. Mining capacity has expanded rapidly, especially in South America, Australia and China. The result was a significant oversupply that pushed prices down. In 2024, global lithium production increased by 22 percent. “The market was unable to absorb this despite the ever-increasing sales of electric vehicles,” says XTB analyst Jiří Tyleček.
This surplus on the market is one of the key factors that influenced the decline in lithium prices. “The lithium market has become one of the most closely watched segments of the commodity market in recent years. Long-term fundamentals remain strong thanks to global electromobility and the development of renewable sources, but in the short term the market is experiencing turbulence and a significant decline in prices,” adds Tyleček.
The Cínovec treasure
In the Czech Republic, lithium mining is still in a phase of uncertainty. The big topic is the Cínovec deposit, which is one of the largest in Europe. The area in the Ore Mountains could represent a significant source of lithium for Europe, but its mining is still only talked about.
Despite the great potential hidden in Cínovec, the value of the lithium found there is currently declining. This is a result of the current lower prices on the global market, which make it difficult to make economic sense to mine. The current low prices complicate the economics of mining, which hinders decisions to launch projects and invest in the necessary infrastructure.
The future of lithium
In 2025, lithium prices recovered slightly, but they still remain well below previous highs. However, analyst Jiří Tyleček believes that the market is returning to balance, with the excess supply that has pushed prices down in the last two years decreasing. An almost balanced supply and demand balance is expected for this year, which is a positive sign. Strong demand for batteries, especially for electric vehicles, should further support consumption gro