Scampdoggydog, not much has changed since last year. The several billion already invested was just that, already invested and the 1.8b hasn't been spent yet.
Not much has changed with the business from a year ago when the SP was 500p. Shares can go many times their value either way. Maybe they were over valued at 500p, maybe not. That doesn't mean that they can't be 500p again in another years time.
The SP can stay here for the next 10 years for all I care. I will just collect my 15p+ dividend every year. However in imho the SP will be over 400p at some time.
Royal mail can never do badly. It can just do okay like last year and reduce the dividend to 15p, which is still a 6.85% return at today's price or it can do well and pay a much bigger dividend. Why? Because RMG are protected by OFCOM who's number one priority is to maintain the USO. They can do whatever it takes to keep RMG healthy.
There are already some 4 day duties in some mail centres. Its the postie's who want them so it makes sense to create more with the reduction in hours. They will be advertised internally as all new duties are and won't be compulsory.