Member Info for RoxburyHouse

Good to have you onboard (again) Buglet11, fingers crossed that we have got in at the bottom.

Yes Alnwick and “One in four pensioners in Britain is now a millionaire thanks to soaring property and pension values, according to government data.”

I’m one of them but would swap it all to be young again but hey ho that’s not going to happen.

Saga introducing equity release when they did was very clever and forward thinking, let’s hope it pays off.

This is a good read. Nothing new but good to hear from different sources.

https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/share-tips/605067/should-you-buy-saga-shares?amp

Ha ha Hi Batfasted not quite!

By complete fluke I sold out here last year in the £3 to £4 range and put my funds into Card.

Been monitoring SAGA throughout and decided to sell CARD at a slight loss to reinvest here because IMO this is too good an opportunity to miss.

Can’t stop myself buying Saga shares atm.

Don’t normally buy anything in the first “mad hour” of trading but that was my purchase @ 156.9445 at just after 8:15am this morning.

That was my fourth purchase this week and think at this price they are an absolute bargain.

Hope it doesn’t all end in tears! Ha ha

nm

Yes pains me to say that after 12 months loyalty CARD was a bit of a disaster for me in the end and I sold out at a loss. I still like CARD though and will go back in if they ever start treating their on line customers with respect and stop blaming them for known faults with their App.

I actually sold out my SAGA just over a year ago at over twice the current price and because % wise it has fallen more than CARD I should end up with twice the number of shares in SAGA than I would have had if I had stayed!

Hi PI and Welcome, yes I agree that this a bargain and have also bought two further lots today bringing my average down to £1.56 ish.

The current share price isn’t much different to what it was in the midst of Covid when both ships were confined to port.

As per Saga RNS Number : 2794R
Trading Update Highlights.
05 July 2022

2022/23 Cruise booked load factor at 2 July 2022 of 73% and expected full year load factor of around 75%.

EXPECTED to generate 2022/23 Underlying Profit Before Tax of £35-£50m.

This is a no brainer and I am loading up.

I have to share this because it is so good!

If you are using your phone to type these messages and are all fingers and and thumbs then it’s a pain when you have to go back to a typo like one I have purposely done above.

Simply hold your finger on the space bar below and you can move the cursor with your finger!

Apologies to all you young guys who know stuff like this. Ha ha

I have to share this because it is so good!

If you are using your phone to type these messages and are all fingers and and thumbs then it’s a pain when you have to go back to a typo like one I have purposely done above.

Simply hold your finger on the space bar below and you can move the cursor with your finger!

Apologies to all you young guys who know stuff like this. Ha ha

In my (limited) experience Company’s are normally taken private when distressed and as a result are usually welcomed with open arms by shareholders.

Saga have now turned a corner (IMO) and with almost £200m available cash (albeit Bond £) and a reported possibility of a profit in 2022/23 then to get the institutions to agree then the offer would have to be a good one.

I have no idea what the institutions averages are but I very much doubt they are in the range £2.25 to £3.75?

Banbury come back we miss you!

- Approximately 80% of SAGA’s underlying profit is from the Insurance and estimated to be valued alone at £900m.

- MCAP Today (July 2022) £212m compared to £560m in Jan 2020 (preCovid), £150m (during Covid),£2.1bn in 2014 (IPO) and its peak of £3.4 Billion in May 2016.

- On track to return to an underlying profit for the 2022/23 financial year.

- The Group expects to reduce leverage in the second half of the year and, when it falls due, repay the £150m due on the 2024 bond1 from Available Cash.

Additional reading:-
Where Saga began...
https://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/how-one-man-built-a-travel-empire-243059/

Thanks guys.

Updated brief history below - any glaring errors or anything anyone wishes to add please let me know!

Cheers.

SAGA a Brief History. 1951 - 2022.

- 1951. Founded by Sidney De Haan.

- 1984. Passed to his son Roger after his father's retirement.

- 1990. Took Private by Roger.

- 2004. Sold to his Management for £1.35bn.

- 2014. IPO with an over inflated Share Price of £1.85 (£2.1bn Mcap).

- 2017 RNS. Profit warning.

- 2019 RNS. Results showing a huge loss.

- Jan 2020. Covid.

- March 2020. Travel business suspended operations.

- April 2020. Losses were caused by Impairment of Goodwill and the Management losing its way. Covid created the perfect storm resulting in the Company losing 95% of its value.

- Early? 2020. Arrival of new ocean cruise ship Spirit of Discovery.

- Sept 2020. Arrival of new ocean cruise ship Spirit of Adventure.

- Oct 2020. Prompted by a failed PE bid of 33p (Old money) valuing the Company at roughly £370m Sir Roger on his white stallion re-entered the affray and came up with the following 5 point rescue plan :-

1. Rejoining the board as Chairman & implementing a new strategy for sustainable growth & profitability. All other directors also taking up pro-rata entitlements.
2. Share DILUTION at a rate of 5 new shares for every 9 existing to raise £140m (net) swiftly followed by a 1 for 15 share CONSOLIDATION.
3. Paying off the full £40M drawn on the revolving credit facility (RCF) along with £64M of an existing £134M loan and extending the balance of £70m to May 2023. Available cash £36m.
4. £100m undrawn revolving credit facility remaining available until May 2023.
5. Investing £100m of his own cash in the fund raise at a premium (£2.78) to retail share price.

- June 2021. Resumed Cruise Operations.

- Late 2021. Arrival of new River Cruise ship Spirit of the Rhine.

- March 2022. Arrival of new River Cruise ship Spirit of the Danube joining its sister ship, Spirit of the Rhine.

- June 2022. Restarted repayments of ship debt.

- Additional notes:-

July 2021 issue of a new five-year £250.0m bond2 (due 2026) and use of the proceeds to repay the balance of £70.0m term loan (point 3 above) and £100.0m off the existing £250m bond1 due 2024. The remainder of the new bond2 (£76m after costs) held as available Cash.

31 Jan 2022, net debt was £729.0m, £31.2m lower than at Jan 2021. Available Cash £186.6m, and an undrawn revolving credit facility of £100.0m.

June 2022, simplified revolving credit facility with reduction in commitment from £100m to £50m.

- Cash 'burn' for the Travel businesses during Covid when both ships were confined to dock was £5.9m per month.

- Two mid size cruise ships, each capable of generating £40m EBITDA per year (£80m pa total).

- Mainly over 50's customer base, with strong loyalty, & fastest growing & most wealthy component of the population.

Cont’d

Good evening everybody or morning if you are reading this on Monday!

Well, rightly or wrongly I am back invested in Saga, just couldn’t resist at this share price.

I am keeping everything crossed that it was a good decision and having jumped back in at a smidgen over £1.60 have bought as it dropped and as a result are now the proud owner of 100,000 shares with an average of £1.57. That’s it I’m putting no more in and praying that this is the bottom!

I have dug up the following info from my notes but it is a little out of date so if anyone (Banbury?) would be kind enough to fill in what’s happened in the last 12 months I will update it accordingly - Thank you.
——————————/—

- 1951. Founded by Sidney De Haan.

- 1984. Passed to his son Roger after his father's retirement.

- 1990. Took Private by Roger.

- 2004. Sold to his Management for £1.35bn.

- 2014. IPO with an over inflated Share Price of £1.85 (£2.1bn Mcap).

- 2017 RNS. Profit warning.

- 2019 RNS. Results showing a huge loss.

- April 2020. The losses were caused by Impairment of Goodwill and the Management losing its way. Covid created the perfect storm resulting in the Company losing 95% of its value.

- Oct 2020. Prompted by a failed PE bid of 33p (Old money) valuing the Company at roughly £370m Sir Roger on his white stallion re-entered the affray and came up with the following 5 point rescue plan :-

1. Rejoining the board as Chairman & implementing a new strategy for sustainable growth & profitability. All other directors also taking up pro-rata entitlements.
2. Share DILUTION at a rate of 5 new shares for every 9 existing to raise £140m (net) swiftly followed by a 1 for 15 share CONSOLIDATION.
3. Paying off £40M of revolving credit along with £64M of an existing £134M loan and extending the balance of £70m to May 2023. Available cash £36m.
4. £100m undrawn revolving credit facility remaining available until May 2023.
5. Investing £100m of his own cash in the fund raise at a premium (£2.78) to retail share price.

2021????

2022????

Additional notes:-

- Cash 'burn' for the Travel businesses during Covid when both ships were confined to dock was in the range of £6m to £8m per month.

- Two mid size cruise ships, each capable of generating £40m EBITDA per year (£80m pa total).

- Mainly over 50's customer base, with strong loyalty, & fastest growing & most wealthy component of the population.

- Approximately 80% of SAGA’s underlying profit is from the Insurance and estimated to be valued alone between £1bn to £1.6bn.

- MCAP Today (July 2022) £212m compared to £560m in Jan 2020 (preCovid), £2.1bn in 2014 (IPO) and its peak of £3.4 Billion in May 2016.

Additional reading:-
Where Saga began...
https://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/how-one-man-built-a-travel-empire-243059/

Hi Harrybarker not sure about saying it was good! but yes I have mentioned it over here before but please do plenty of your own research before investing in any share and never go on the recommendation of a stranger!

My heads all over the place atm with every share and I’m seriously considering selling everything and getting out for good!

My average here is 60p ish and after 12 months of averaging down I have only ever seen blue very briefly when it went to 65p and have sold a large part of my holding at a loss to switch to Saga to balance out my portfolio because that has gone down more and still a recovery play.

Does anybody actually know what they are doing because I most certainly don’t! Ha ha

With the greatest respect Diandto you haven’t stated any facts!

The only one I can find is you stating that the max capacity is 75% and that’s not true!!

I like different viewpoints on a discussion board though and I give you credit for guessing correctly that the share price was going to drop to £1.50 because like moolacoaster I am loading up as it drops.

Please remember though Diandto, it was just a guess and bearing in mind the state of the World atm its hardly surprising.

The million $ question that we would all like to know though is what price is the bottom before this bounds back?

IMO (see what I did there - my opinion only) it’s going to be soon.

Ouch ouch ouch.

So hard to do but IMO this is the time to buy not sell.

Hi Jedclampit yes true I hope I don’t regret it but I was too heavy in Card.

You may recall a few weeks ago that I bought into DDDD a few days before they went into administration?

That was the wake up call I needed.

I had to get some of my eggs out of the Card basket immediately and balance my portfolio and since Saga had dropped over 60% since I sold last year it was the obvious choice.

Card is still my biggest investment but I now have my fingers in 3 pies (Card, Saga and Wrks) and I have freed up some cash.

All very sensible for me but how long it will last I don’t know. I really do love being “all in” one share it floats my boat.

Saga is an absolute steal at this price though don’t you agree?

Won’t show yet but that 6338 @ £1.568576 is mine.
One of us will be right - hope it is me!

Morning guys.

The 3 standout sets of figures from my tables above are :-

£168.0m 120p << Feb-Oct 2020. (Average/Covid).
£370.0m 265p << Rejected PE Offer (33p old price).
£221.0m 158 << ** TODAY ** (20/7/2022).

The Mcap today at £221.0m is not that far away from what it was during Covid (£168.0m) when the ships were confined to the dock with 0% capacity!!

Right in the middle of Covid a PE offer of £370.0m was rejected by the management instead opting for a £100.0m cash injection by Sir Roger.

IMO this is a screaming BUY.

The Upside vs Downside of Saga at this share price is massive again all in my opinion.

Yes Pc and the comment was “tongue in cheek”!

Depreciating asset of course, well that is what was the norm before the world went mad.

Who knows what’s coming next?

Bye Buglet11 close the door on your way out mate.

Since you won’t be adding at 150 or indeed “any other figure” I doubt you will be posting on this board anymore so take care mate.

I am doing the opposite and buying.

Those £10 grand buys at £1.614 and £1.591394 this morning are mine and I see Saga as an absolute bargain atm.

Could be wrong but hey ho.