Member Info for Rover62

They are most certainly waiting for the ‘Dear John’ letter!

I’ve been going through the construction update RNSs, to try and get a handle on what’s needed for completion. If you believe in what you’re reading in the RNSs, then the latest are not as bad as the doom merchants may imply.

Increase in CAPEX of 35%. $537 million plus 35% is $725.

As of the 10th November RNS. The Araguaia Project has a current spend of $429 million and total liquidity sources of $169 million. So the baseline funding requirements will be $725 - $429 - $169 millions = $127 million or £100 million. The probable figure is likely to be more, but not the $200 million suggested by some. Given the spend to date it also suggests that the project is only 60% complete.

So the funding options range from full equity raise to full debt package. Is the company in a position to handle this fully by debt? Probably not. So for argument sake a debt equity split of 50:50. So again for argument sake £60 million raised by equity. At 20p a share that’s 300 million new shares. That could easily be funded by the cornerstones and a rights issue. So there would be approximately 600 million shares in issue. Given that A1 has in itself an NAV of approximately £1 billion say 80% of that the share price would be £800 million divided by 600 million which is £1.33.

They’ve nailed the lid shut, dug the hole and about to lower the coffin in.

Do I hear a tap from inside?

Alas, no, it was the echos of hope from the PIs.

Some more figure to speculate about.

Currently La Mancha have invested £77 million for their 62,297,182 shares, or £1.24 per share. 23% of the company. Currently worth £5.6 million at a share price of 9p.

So does La Mancha protect its current investment by putting more money in?

In the first scenario they would need to invest another £66.8 million to get a total of 30% of the company or 396,000,000 shares or (£77 million + £66.8 million) or £0.36 per share.

Pre crash target given that A1 has in itself an NAV of approximately £1 billion say 80% of that would be £800 million. 23% of the company would be £184 million and after 30% is £240 million. Plus dividend from FCF.

So the answer is Yes.

I know that this is only one of multiple options. The likely one being vastly different and most likely a combination of equity and debt.

The point is they will not walk away.

At this point I believe the share price and MCAP are irrelevant to the financial deal being negotiated. The deal is all about the cornerstones and their investment. They will want as much from the deal as they can. So with the assumption that we don’t go into administration or that there is no takeover and a full equity agreement then it’s all about percentages. So to maximise that they can only go for a split of 30:30:30:10. The 10% being the rest of us. If there is no retail offering then that means there are a finite number of new shares that can be created. Current shares in issue 270 million. (Not including all share not converted, as this is just an illustration). 51% is currently the cornerstones. So 49% (the rest of us) of 270 million is 132 million. If this is then 10% then the new total amount of shares that could be in issue is 1,320 million. 1,320 - 270 = 1,050 million new shares. That is I believe is the max number that could be issued. At the minimum of the 20p issue limit the that would raise £210 million. Given that A1 has in itself an NAV of approximately £1 billion say 80% of that the share price would be £800 million divided by 1,320 million which is 60p.

The second option is La Mancha increase to 30% with Glencore and Orion increasing proportionally with no retail offer. Simplistically it would mean La Mancha doubling their current number of shares from 62 million to 124 million. The total shares in issue would need to be increased to 410 million shares. Total new shares issued 140 million. To raise £210 million the raise would need to be at £1.50. Given that A1 has in itself an NAV of approximately £1 billion say 80% of that the share price would be £800 million divided by 410 million which is £1.95.

This is intended to show two scenarios where a finite number of shares would be issued and the consequences of that. In both cases La Mancha ends up with 30% of the company the maximum without a takeover.

In the first La Mancha would have to buy 334 million new shares at 20p, £66.8 million. Glencore 348 million, £69.6 million. Orion 368 million, £73.6 million. Here retail are only left with 10%.

In the second La Mancha would have to buy 62 million new shares at £1.50, £93 million. Glencore 48 million, £72 million. Orion 28 million, £42 million. Here retail are left with 32%.

So what best for each company? I’m sure that each will win at our expense. I’m sure someone could work out what each has invested so far and hence what they would loose if no deal or what the gain with a deal. I’m sure that each will win at our expense. I’m sure the mine will be financed and built. I’m sure that each will win at our expense. But, I’m hoping that at least we still get some scraps. If we get the first I’ll be disappointed but resigned to mitigate a bit of the lose, 60p a share with a 4 to 5 pence dividend. Not too good for the long term holders, but a good punt for a newbie.

Didn’t take long to find a new job

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/11/28/2787395/0/en/Churchill-Resources-Appointments-to-Board-of-Directors-and-Grant-of-Options.html

Well I said I’d look at this Chat when the next RNS had been released. I have and it’s taken less than a day for the usual rampers and doom merchants to make the a very toxic place, so again it’s bye until the next RNS. I just hope for all of the real people it’s more positive. Bye!

Https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/board-of-directors/

https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/leadership/

Let’s face it. The board were moved aside. Why? The cornerstone investors lost confidence in them. Why? In short mismanagement. You cannot ask for as much money as they did so close to the project end.

This change opens up a plethora of possibilities/opportunities good or bad. The mine will be financed and built. However, will the company now take a different direction once the dust settles? A2 & A3 acceleration, V expanded? ESG and discretionary spend thrown out? This bb is all about speculation so here’s the starters for 10 beyond the dust.

What will the company look like?

There are of course worse cases than below, but, this is a possibility.

£200 million raised by equity to the cornerstones. One billion shares at the minimum allowed 20p. Before all this blew up the target price for shares was between £2-£3. So with dilution target price could still be 50p to 75p. AIMOHO

Looks kid the cornerstones are now an absolute total control of the company.

How they take this forward with us small investors is what I’m interested in.

The mine will be financed and constructed, it’s just if they let us still have a morsel.

Any chance any of you know who he is and what he’s done?

Looks like some on here have got their wish.

AMC —> ACP

Sorry

Below is the Tanzanian mining portal

If you search for Graphite Advancement you will see the AMC licenses

Just above is the Blackrock license under the name Faru Graphite.

https://portal.madini.go.tz/map/

5th December 2023

Https://www.miningreview.com/battery-metals/mahenge-a-tier-1-graphite-project/

This is exactly why after today I’m off this board.

I feel like I’ve been hung drawn and quartered then shedded for good measure.

I’ll wait for the RNS!

I’m going to take a break from this board, starting tomorrow, until the next RNS. I would also suggest others to do likewise. Although I’ve found this useful and entertaining and even enjoyable at times it’s becoming extreme. I acknowledge that all outcomes are possible but to have the extreme negative and unrealistically positive outcomes shoved down your throat post after post by people taking pleasure in the misery of others and dreamers, is too much. I would suggest that those posters reign back their rhetoric and try post something constructive. (You know who are!)

FWIW I believed in this project because it was being done in the right way and not just the money. Maybe I’m a dreamer. Obviously something in the company has gone horribly wrong. I’m hoping the report will identify the problem and provide solutions.

Until the next RNS bye!

Spike,

It’s actually a moot point as we weren’t suspended, but you obviously believe that protecting the investors capital is wrong. If the share had been suspended at the price of £1.20 then the company may have been able to raise the funds by equity at between 60-80p. Maybe a 100% dilution. The shares could then be re admitted at 60p. Shares currently at 10p with potential total loss. I know what maths I’d like to do.