To whom it may concern28 Jan 2024 16:49
as a long term investor, or like some would say, a mug who is stuck with a bad investment, i’d like to try and give an honest analysis according to me.
firstly the fact is, the company is in deep ****. the world market for nickel at the moment is in the ****. money currently will be **** hard to come by. the company has three cornerstones, five banks, two export agencies, who are themselves stuck, all desperate as **** not to lose out on their investment. then comes us the private long term investors who are just desperate.
currently none of us on this chat knows **** all about what really is going on, we just speculate.
the current share price is **** because it’s rightfully priced due to the high risk that funding will not be forthcoming and the company at risk of going into administration. so, yes, any new investment here is a huge gamble. probably, but with the high risk come high returns if you win…!
if the company is saved is there any hope for those currently stuck, well i hope so. because the company has three cornerstones, five banks, two export agencies all desperate as **** not to lose out on their investment. because they don’t care a **** about us the private investors, is where the hope lies. i can see some saying now ‘what the f is he talking about?’. i don’t think they will really forget about the private investors because, as some say, they don’t want to give anyone a free ride. however, in getting the best deal for themselves the cornerstones will try and protect as much of their equity as possible. the banks and export agencies will want their money back. that’s pure speculation, but believe it to be a reasonable conjecture.
so how do they get out of this **** with their shirts?
administration
well going into administration will definitely be ****! the first thing that happens is the company looses control and everything is signed over to the administrator. their job would be to restructure, sell or liquidate. so restructuring wouldn’t happen as the company would have tried refinancing and presumably failed. liquidating i would guess that the banks would not get anything like their money back let alone any money left for shareholders. so the only realistic solution in this scenario is a sale. some on this chat have suggested that this is what the cornerstones want as they suggest it could be picked up cheap. is that feasible? remember the administrators are working for all shareholders to recover some of their money, but before shareholders in the queue are the banks. the administrators will have a duty to sell to the highest bidder. so who are the likely bidders and more to the point what are they willing to pay? the cornerstones, anglo american, vale, bhp and private equity. to keep the company the cornerstones would have to out bid the others. this i would argue would be the biggest reason why the cornerstones would not want the company to go into administration.
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