Member Info for Rover62

How about some from the Brazilian government.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/lula-unveils-60-billion-plan-to-revitalize-brazilian-industry-1.2025012

Unfortunately this RNS is nothing more than a proof of life.

Corrumpo

Don’t waste your time trying to de ramp this share. It’s suspended.

Some may say it was imminent, 😂

May I suggest that you all re-read the RNS. After the initial revelations and headline figures, and a week of discussion here, some of the interesting content may have faded into the fog.

The key element for me is, other than the headlines, is the engagement of G Mining Services (“GMS”), a specialized mining construction and engineering firm.

They were engaged to undertake the review process, delivering the re-estimated of cost to completion and achievable schedule estimates. They seem to have completed this process using a different programme/project management approach. This has obviously exposed the weaknesses of the previous methodology, leading on to the project execution going forward being implementing with tighter more focused management using better methodologies and tools. GMS employees will be directly employed overseeing this. It seems the previous management suffered from obfuscation by their contractors and staff. They hadn’t got a clue things were going wrong until it was too late. By the new team controlling directly each work stream, with a less aggressive timeline with fewer workers, will let them identify issues earlier and mitigate them.

Using new productivity data has I believe inflated the CTC, but will prove to be a more reliable estimate.

In the long run it will provide a more secure environment to succeed.

As always they do caveat with whether they can raise the money.

Stow,

I would agree and hope that will be the case.

Rob,

As has already been suggested, I think you need to do a bit of homework on the financial state of the company. Your calculations are flawed as dilution is regarding current shares and new shares. Maybe you need to go back school. For a start the amount needed to be raised is the $454 million but with $131 million already raised. That by simple calculation is $323 million. You could assume a similar equity:debt ratio from the original financial package of 1:2. $633 million raised of which $197 million was equity the rest debt, however, that’s unlikely, Maybe more a 2:1. I would suggest $200 million equity raise rest debt. Lets round that to £s for argument sake. There has been plenty of debate on here as to whether that can be done and at what price point. Without some underhand manipulation the raise would need to be done at at least 20p per share. So one billion new shares.

We can all read about what’s going on and cite various sources to advance our own agenda, so I’m not.

Maybe we could all agree that the market is uncontrolled and volatile, and has been for some time.

Maybe we can all agree that the demand for nickel will continue to increase over time.

Maybe we can agree to disagree how much and how fast this will be.

Maybe we can agree a baseline will be the stainless steel market.

Maybe we can agree the battery market will drive the vast majority of any increase.

Maybe we can agree the EV battery market for ‘The West’ at least currently uses nickel and cobalt in their chemistry. This could change with a change in attitudes or a new battery chemistry turns up.

Maybe we can agree that Indonesia with Chinese backing it’s attempting to control the nickel market, successfully, I may add.

This has resulted in oversupply with nickel prices hitting a recent low.

A few questions.

Will they sustain their supply over the medium to long term at the current price?

Will the LME split the nickel market into ‘clean’ and ‘dirty’?

Will governments legislate for ‘clean’?

Will there be a price difference ‘clean’ and ‘dirty’?

So what will the nickel market look like in five years?

I know this doesn’t address the Horizonte position directly but it shows some of the questions those involved will need to answer.

Maybe we can all agree the mine will be built.

How about I call and say that evidence shows that the have already raised $700 million on this project so it can be done.

Stow,

Sorry, when I used ‘ apparently’ it was with its ironical meaning. I was trying to draw out if they had any real evidence other than their bear outlook. They, as I suspected, have none. They may well have been stung previously with AIM miners and are just applying their ‘expertise’ here. Yes, there have been failures but also successes. I have no idea if a solution will be found, but I’m not willing to believe P&C. They have only talked about two scenarios, dilution and administration, both discussed at length on this board and both found to be wanting. The stakes here are too high and too many entities involved for there to be any kind of underhand deals.

P&C, I’ve given you your own thread and a chance to explain with evidence. You hove NOT.

You apparently called this correct. You absolutely have the right to air your views on any chat. However, the reason why nobody listened was the way you delivered those views. Both of you have used words like imbecile, deluded among others. When opinions are expressed with the arrogant and condescending manner you both have shown, no wonder people respond negatively towards you. I listened and seriously considered an exit. I didn’t, because neither of you presented evidence to convince me to think your views were valid. Your evidence was circumstantial at best. That weighted against the fundamentals and ‘facts’ from the company, you should understand why shareholders stayed invested.

Going forward you’ll try to make your point, but again you’ll deliver it in a way that really winds people up which makes them ignore you. That way you’ll only fail.

You have always said shareholders will be wiped out. I’d be interested in how you see this panning out. Please take this opportunity to put on record the actual mechanism you the company will use to transfer the PI assets to themselves. Illustrate this with substantive evidence that we can actually identify with that relates directly with Horizonte.

Given that this interview was four months ago just at the start of Horizonte’s problems there was absolutely no panic about the project, all the while recognising the varying difficulties that are coming. The then increase in CAPEX didn’t seem to come as a surprise to him, and he would have had more detail than us, and he casually put it down to a few factors. Doing it for the first time, inflation and financial costs. It’s strange as I almost got a sense that he was excited about getting in there and sorting out a solution. Had he already been tapped up? He also mentioned that the project had value and longevity and was worthwhile. The term snowballing came up with respect to other investments as a characteristic in opportunities they look for. Horizonte has that. They invested here in the first place for a reason. What’s happened here doesn’t phase them one iota, they are here to stay and find a solution.

AIMOHO

Lfontes posted this earlier.

I thought this important enough to note and deserves its own thread.

Cheers Lfontes.

I’m following this chat room for a while and would like to ad something about the Brazilian Law.

One of the main arguments for scaring investors is related to the Co going into adm, bankruptcy.

That option is not so easy to the main shareholders, because according to the Brazilian Law, several licenses, like environmental , local, state, federal, have been given to an entity (Horizonte Minerals), and if that entity ceases to exist or becomes financially unable to conclude the different execution steps on the project, there is a real risk of going back to the planning phase from scratch. Which means that an important part of the asset (licensing, permits, environmental studies presented to obtain those) may become invalid. The thing with South America, and Brazilian Laws in particular, are they are so complex that any move to cease HM as a viable entity may incurs finishing off the multiple licensing processes so far obtained.

What’s the Value

So how do you define the value of the company?

MCAP, NPV, assets or another measure?

It all depends on why you’re asking, as the perceived value will depend upon why you’re asking.

An example would be.

A few stones on a hillside. What’s their value?

Set the stones out in a room. What’s their value?

They happen to be marble slabs. What’s their value?

They have been carved with figures on them. What’s their value now?

They happen to be quite old. What’s the value now?

They are in the British museum. What’s the value now?

If you asked a Greek politician you’d have a different answer than if you ask someone who is trying to feed their family.

A few stones in a room. What’s their value?

The point I’m making is that everyone involved will be looking at this from different perspectives. A person who has no alternative but to live next to the road carrying all the construction traffic, which is making their life hell. The town council desperately trying to get investment and employment into the community. The list goes on up the food chain all with different goals.

Nice!

Did anyone else find it strange that the company doing the review changed?

At some point it’s changed from Reta Engenharia on the 2nd October to G Mining Services yesterday. Obviously La Mancha is dictating the show now and wanted their own trusted partners on board. Was this not key information we should have been aware of?

Only a small matter.

Quite a few late reported trades today, all fairly large.

The question I was asking really asking is whether the institutions are in in the buying and/or selling today given that some of the trades today if they had been done back in August/September would have been over £1 million.

Any views on who’s buying or selling?

The share price opened down and went a bit further, but has remained relatively flat since. The volume is also outstripping October’s volume.

Not all the buys can be attributed to the short closing, and there’s a few large buys. Some large sells as well.

Like me, those that didn’t sell in October will most likely sitting on their hands.

Obviously there’ll be a lot of trading gamblers cutting their losses and exiting, but that counts for the sells.

Does anyone see any sign of the intuitions exiting?

It’s a vast gamble, but there does seem to be some appetite from some traders.

The question for me is whether the larger buys are institutional or just a big gambler?

Just interested in people thoughts.

.. not as high as I expected.

Any sell are possible being bought but the short position closing.