Member Info for Rover62

New today. I thought just interesting to look through.

https://blackrockmining.com.au/investor-presentation-sharecafe-webinar/

-111,

Well we are all gamers here, and that’s the point. Some are slightly more risk averse than others due to being burnt. Even yourself, but you came back and got burnt again. Each of us has to learn. Some are more thick skinned. You have learnt and now have retired from AIM. I too have learnt and when in a position will exit to. Sure others here will follow at some stage, but that’s up to them.

AIM is an investment. Well that’s a laugh. It, like a lot of activities, is a pure gamble. Putting a bet on horse running in the Grand National at 100:1 is throwing money away so why do people actually place that type of bet?

So is Horizonte a gamble, and what are the odds? I couldn’t myself work these out as it’s a combination of a straightforward gamble, accumulator and spread betting.

The market itself hasn’t got a clue, hence the current share price.

For those that like throwing in an odd £1 or £2. Well it’s 5heir money.

Now that the new CAPEX is known and financing cost, the new OPEX cost could do with being published. I’m presuming that those will be known by the company and shared to the privileged. I would also suggest that these have to be solid to be believable. The shutters haven’t been brought down yet so maybe the mine will still provide an adequate level of profitability.

I invested in Horizonte the first four years ago on the open market look long term income though dividends. (Yes. Bad decision! But I’ll have to live with that.)

I did all the due diligence I could and bought. That was looking through reports, presentations and any other information I could get. My decision to invest was verified by the funding being realised.

Although everything has changed, somehow I feel we’re are the beginning again. The same questions, the same forecasts, a different but same bearish market. The decisions taken then were full of risk and uncertainty. Some may say that as time has passed and what’s happened has happened that risk and uncertainty has diminished a fraction or two.

So to conclude is the case for investment by the majors now stronger?

I’m always amazed at people commenting on the share price movement on the TSX.

Yesterday someone mentioned it was 75% up at close trading at an equivalent 3.5p.

Now we have comment on a 25% drop with only one sale of 35k shares.

Are they really a barometer, given the small volume?

For clarification the 28th March states:

… conclusion of any such solution is unlikely to lead to a positive outcome for existing shareholders, noteholders and creditors of the Company.

Sorry meant to put the link in

https://x.com/goldstoneres/status/1775443108068557050?s=61&t=iGwN06MTvXMFS5Z_VwueBg

New message says doubling gold production and that they are selling gold each month.

Please let us see some evidence.

T, I would think that if you tried to buy 50 million shares tomorrow you wouldn’t be buying them for 1.5p.

Over the past five weeks there has been some activity at the mine site. Check out these two sets of images.

20 feb

https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=15&lat=6.32846&lng=-1.62512&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2024-02-20T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2024-02-20T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22

Yesterday

https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=15&lat=6.32846&lng=-1.62512&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2024-03-31T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2024-03-31T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22

For a laugh! I wasn’t going to get the calculator out again, but feel the need to do an extreme simplification. This is in agreement with mv01’s calculations.

If the new investor ends up with 20%, 50% or 80% of the company.

200 million shares initially in issue.

Resulting share numbers

@20%, 250 million

@50%, 400 million

@80%, 1 billion

This shows that the relative dilution increases substantially as you give more away.

What would this mean for new and existing shareholders if the new investor was investing £100 million and the future company value being £1 billion. Well the new investor would have a 2, 5 or 8 bagger. The existing holder would be at a value 0.8, 0.5 or 0.2.

Or if you actually want to put this imaginary company in terms of share price then.

Pre deal it could be anything, conceivable 1p. Post deal is want the new investor paid, £100 million for 50 million shares £2, or 200 million shares 50p, 800 million shares 12.5p. Future £4, £2.50 or £1.

At this point it’s getting beyond simple so I’ll stop.

In the end it will all come down to how much of the company the cornerstones are willing to give away to the new investors for a given amount of investment. That will be the negotiations and the result will be the share price. So I’m agreeing that the current share price isn’t actually important in the negotiations. If the raise was via an open placing to the market and private investors then the current share price would absolutely be marker.

the point in asking was not to get an answer but to try to put you in the shoes of glencore, la mancha and orion. part of successful negotiation is knowing who you’re negotiating with and their motivations. what is it they want and what are they willing to come to the table with. these players are not *****cats, but the key is, they will want a deal. they absolutely know the value here and will not be giving it away. they will want to maintain their position with as much equity as they can.

Something that won’t happen but helps the thought formulations.

If Glencore were to offer a buyout what would LM and O be willing to take?

Maybe one thing we can all agree on is no one is here to loose money. I don’t know, but surely if this goes to admin, everyone currently involved looses to various degrees. So those at the negotiating table will be trying to find a solution (you would hope). The evidence is that we are not in administration at this point. There are a thousand books out there on the art negotiating and even the odd course or two. All will say knowledge, preparation and planning are key. However, some will say plans are the first to disintegrate on initial contact. Flexibility and compromise are needed.

The analogy I thought of was the UN trying to formulate a resolution. Virtually impossible!

Back to the thread title.

It seems all types of negotiations go down to the wire. This being no different. All we know about the negotiations is that the company needs to secure a lot of money. Other than that we don’t have any clue about how or what is being negotiated or with whom. We don’t know how much all of the parties are willing to get a deal done, that all would be happy with, or are they just looking out for themselves.

We may get an insight this week as I expect an RNS to be issued about interest deferment / wavers. If granted there is still some hope as a deal is being struck. The RNS after that would be about interim funding. Again if available then hope is alive. If the company is still alive then the BIGGEST RNS, the full financial package. That’s when we find out the we have all been thrown out of the plane without a parachute.

You have to admit that JM and SR are extremely brilliant financiers in that they have managed to deceive five banks, two export credit agencies and three cornerstones not to mention institutional and retail investors, you and I out of a vast amount of money. They magnificently pulled the wool over all our eyes. Or do you like me think they were just out of their depth and were blind to what was happening in front of them. We will never know the true story as the embarrassment would be too hard for all the parties. I know that I was blinded and am know embarrassed that I’m still holding.

Bistromathmatics!

Since 2nd October, everything anyone has done has made this situation worse. The company’s mismanagement is staggering. Hats off to those fickle shareholders in recognising the mismanagement, but in them leaving it crashed the shares. That’s made the new management’s job harder. The old management rushed to the market with the bad news having no quantifiable figures, other than a finger in the air, of the true shortfall. The new management had to revise the figures prompting another share price crash. So they’re trying to negotiate from a woeful start. Impossible! The mine will be finished but the terms now will be dire. I know that I haven’t got a clue what the negotiations will produce. The key has always been what the cornerstones are will to give away. Currently any new investors will be getting this for a song. I’ve put my calculator away for now as I’m just hoping for the company survival.

I’m still holding.

Mv01,

I’ll counter that with my own example. Your example is on/off, which is fine. My example would be empty/full.

Take a glass and fill it. Empty or full. In between neither empty or full but just a transitional state from empty to full.