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Positive article
https://www.einpresswire.com/article/686802581/tanzania-a-prime-destination-for-mining-investment
“Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns- the ones we don't know we don't know.”
― Donald Rumsfeld
I always like this quote as it encapsulates the idiocy of some who believe they know it all and try to gaslight others into believing their version of the unknowns. We have a few ‘contributors’ here on this chat.
So what do we actually know? Well, only what the company tells us. This maybe true or false, but this is a known unknown.
Other known unknowns, to us, given the company has been truthful in what they have let us know are is the exact amount of money needed and what the financial package deal will be struck.
The unknown unknowns are off course unknown.
So if I tell you the company WILL definitely screw us all over, you have my permission to call me idiotic.
TDT,
I do agree with you that they will walk away if they believe that they will not get a return.
This , however, is exactly what we don’t know. The people on this chat, including you and I are only speculating and expressing opinion.
My opinion is bullish, due to the fact that I’m invested here and need to have a positive outlook
TDT,
To be honest I haven’t got a clue which of the so called analysts are credible or not. In reading around these, there have been a lot of differing opinions on how the nickel market will develop over the next decade. We can all extract those opinions and place links here. However, the only opinion that matters are those that invested big here, the cornerstones, banks and export agencies. They did invest here in the first place. Yes, the world has changed. The question we all want answered is, through their own analysis of the world, markets and the state of the company, do they want to invest more?
There are numerous articles about this, three below are a quick summary.
https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/nickel-investments-in-indonesia-may-slow-on-falling-prices-geopolitical-risk-2024-preview/
https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL8N3BW4WU/#:~:text=The%20country%20is%20on%20track,in%20a%20research%20this%20week.
https://asianews.network/indonesias-nickel-reserves-could-be-depleted-in-15-years-minister-warns/
Or
https://www.mining.com/web/from-green-hype-to-bailouts-the-nickel-industry-has-imploded/
I believe the Chinese are trying to break the market by using Indonesia. I also believe they will fail and any company that can weather this will be able to capitalise.
I was a bit bored so was looking around on LinkedIn.
Just another observation is that there were a few new starters at 5he company.
Some in Brazil and one in the UK. This person being a lawyer specialising in dispute resolution.
I thought it interesting.
Just an observation. If the required equity is only £50 million after other forms of funding.
Currently La Mancha have invested £77 million for their 62,297,182 shares, or £1.24 per share. 23% of the company. Currently worth £6.3 million at a share price of 10p.
Raising equity at a certain share price may set a base not withstanding the any bad news and vagaries of the market.
If they put in
£50 million @ 20p = 250 million shares
Total value £50 million + £12.6 million = £62.6 million
Or
£50 million @ 50p = 100 million shares
Total value £50 million + £31 million = £81 million
Or
£50 million @ £1 = 50 million shares
Total value £50 million + £62.3 million = £112.3 million.
So by raising at £1 rather than 20p they get back immediately the £50 million.
Just a bit of a laugh as I know very well it just a fantasy.
🤪
Https://www.barrons.com/articles/germany-s-mine-to-motor-lithium-supply-chain-takes-shape-fd8f73af
so the company survives because it’s the best option. money as i said will be **** hard to get hold of and due to the risks involved with the company, it will cost a lot. however, a balance will be worked out. i guess that a combination of a lot of different types of financial instruments will be used. for that reason equity will not be a total wipe out. so in conclusion we may lose our shirts but we will still have our vests and undies.
as a long term investor, or like some would say, a mug who is stuck with a bad investment, i’d like to try and give an honest analysis according to me.
firstly the fact is, the company is in deep ****. the world market for nickel at the moment is in the ****. money currently will be **** hard to come by. the company has three cornerstones, five banks, two export agencies, who are themselves stuck, all desperate as **** not to lose out on their investment. then comes us the private long term investors who are just desperate.
currently none of us on this chat knows **** all about what really is going on, we just speculate.
the current share price is **** because it’s rightfully priced due to the high risk that funding will not be forthcoming and the company at risk of going into administration. so, yes, any new investment here is a huge gamble. probably, but with the high risk come high returns if you win…!
if the company is saved is there any hope for those currently stuck, well i hope so. because the company has three cornerstones, five banks, two export agencies all desperate as **** not to lose out on their investment. because they don’t care a **** about us the private investors, is where the hope lies. i can see some saying now ‘what the f is he talking about?’. i don’t think they will really forget about the private investors because, as some say, they don’t want to give anyone a free ride. however, in getting the best deal for themselves the cornerstones will try and protect as much of their equity as possible. the banks and export agencies will want their money back. that’s pure speculation, but believe it to be a reasonable conjecture.
so how do they get out of this **** with their shirts?
administration
well going into administration will definitely be ****! the first thing that happens is the company looses control and everything is signed over to the administrator. their job would be to restructure, sell or liquidate. so restructuring wouldn’t happen as the company would have tried refinancing and presumably failed. liquidating i would guess that the banks would not get anything like their money back let alone any money left for shareholders. so the only realistic solution in this scenario is a sale. some on this chat have suggested that this is what the cornerstones want as they suggest it could be picked up cheap. is that feasible? remember the administrators are working for all shareholders to recover some of their money, but before shareholders in the queue are the banks. the administrators will have a duty to sell to the highest bidder. so who are the likely bidders and more to the point what are they willing to pay? the cornerstones, anglo american, vale, bhp and private equity. to keep the company the cornerstones would have to out bid the others. this i would argue would be the biggest reason why the cornerstones would not want the company to go into administration.