Member Info for Rover62

I haven’t got a clue and absolutely know nothing about the internal goings on within the company.

What I will say that in my experience I’m not surprised that the new management team have put in the CTC estimate they have. Although a lot lot higher than I expected. I know that when I was called into helping projects in distress, I was always clinically forensic in identifying all costs and this usually meant estimates on the high end. I always brought in those projects to time and budget. I think that’s what the new management team are doing here. The previous management team, in hindsight, were too optimistic with their estimates.

The new management team have only got one chance with the begging bowl and they need to get it right.

With publishing such a high figure they will have an initial idea of the financial package being put together. With the high figure they must believe they can get it. It all depends on the confidence the new investor(s) and banks have in the new team and their estimates. I had hoped that they would announce this in a few weeks, but if new investors are involved they will have to do a deep dive due diligence which could be a 2-3 months. All outcomes still possible.

So a guess at the financial package.

£200 million equity raise at nominal share price of 20p is 1 billion new shares.

Rest through debt or other.

Total shares at nameplate about 1.4 billion.

New NPV a guess at £700 million.

Or 50p a share.

Pure speculation and wild guess but some rational behind my figures.

LawrenceH

I truly believed in Horizonte and still think it’s a worthwhile project. I’m still invested and have not sold a single share, nor will I, as I don’t want to consolidate the substantial loss I have. In hindsight, a wonderful thing, I would have sold after 3rd August RNS, and waited for a lower entry point. However, I had confidence in management that they were telling us the truth and the share price would not decline too much. From a high then of £1.70 to today 8.5p, I’d call that a shafting, as that value will take a very long time to recover if at all. Why I’m bashing this is the fact the previous management got the estimates to complete wrong. At 70 to 75 percentage completion, you could expect a little overrun, 10-15%, but not what the new management are saying now.

Now that the funds required are known they are back to trying to put a financial package together. If they can then for a new investor this will be a good opportunity once the funding has been agreed. For a really wild guess I’d suggest a fully diluted share price at nameplate production in two years would only be in the region of 40-50 pence.

I’ve been extremely bullish about Horizonte up until now, but there’s no sugar coating this, it’s bad. We have well and truly experienced a good shafting. How on the 3rd August 2023 the RNS stated that all was progress on schedule and to budget with an estimate of 65% complete to get to the 2nd October 2023 RNS and this one today. 87% cost increase with a 2 year delay. Now regressed to 48% complete. How this will be funded in the current market will defy the laws of physics. I have now assign a value of zero to this.

Https://bnnbreaking.com/finance-nav/horizonte-minerals-invites-proposals-for-araguaia-nickel-project-feasibility-study

I could have bought that argument with Jair Bolsonaro but not with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

What value does the Brazilian government and the State of Para put on Horizonte and it future economic benefits? Would they get their hands into their pockets to help?

Https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2020/aug/03/solved-is-sarcasm-really-the-lowest-form-of-wit

Make up your mind 😂

This article from a couple of weeks ago does really give an answer, but an interesting take on the subject

https://www.afr.com/world/asia/indonesia-s-poll-frontrunner-doubles-down-on-nickel-boom-20240131-p5f1ek

Indonesia has just had a general election which looks likely an ex military general will be voted in. Apparently an unsavoury character. Maybe this nickel price movement is a consequence of that.

The reason I ask is that the company needs to repay 2400 oz of gold by 29 June.

We last heard of a gold poor of 379 oz back in October, I’m worried that we’ve not heard anything about what production is like and if it is on schedule to cover the loan requirements.

Is there any?

He may have meant Brazilian Reals. Lol

Out of interest I’ve just looked back a the nickel price in 2021. The range of price in the first six months when the financial deal was being negotiated was between $15k/t and $20k/t.

Positive article

https://www.einpresswire.com/article/686802581/tanzania-a-prime-destination-for-mining-investment

Or we could just cut out everything and go to the chaos theory and save time over the discussion.

I’m not an idiot!

😎🤪

“Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns- the ones we don't know we don't know.”

― Donald Rumsfeld

I always like this quote as it encapsulates the idiocy of some who believe they know it all and try to gaslight others into believing their version of the unknowns. We have a few ‘contributors’ here on this chat.

So what do we actually know? Well, only what the company tells us. This maybe true or false, but this is a known unknown.

Other known unknowns, to us, given the company has been truthful in what they have let us know are is the exact amount of money needed and what the financial package deal will be struck.

The unknown unknowns are off course unknown.

So if I tell you the company WILL definitely screw us all over, you have my permission to call me idiotic.

TDT,

I do agree with you that they will walk away if they believe that they will not get a return.

This , however, is exactly what we don’t know. The people on this chat, including you and I are only speculating and expressing opinion.

My opinion is bullish, due to the fact that I’m invested here and need to have a positive outlook

TDT,

To be honest I haven’t got a clue which of the so called analysts are credible or not. In reading around these, there have been a lot of differing opinions on how the nickel market will develop over the next decade. We can all extract those opinions and place links here. However, the only opinion that matters are those that invested big here, the cornerstones, banks and export agencies. They did invest here in the first place. Yes, the world has changed. The question we all want answered is, through their own analysis of the world, markets and the state of the company, do they want to invest more?