Member Info for rossannan

Stag1974

I wouldn’t read too much into it. If it has now been confirmed that the Q4/FY update is dropping tomorrow, maybe it’s just going to be the Q4/FY update without any CR-3 data. Or maybe it’s folk who were only in for an anticipation trade closing out their positions.

To be fair it is certainly bucking the trend today.

I have a good chunk of this but it’s really important to remember where the operations are located and the risk that comes with those locations. The market wants to see a run of financial statements like this morning’s before it will relax and allow GDP to re-rate. And the TSF just isn’t tangible enough to get much value assigned to it yet. The more tangible the TSF becomes the more likely it is that someone will do a deal with MO, IMO.

Spudpeeler

No, invested it in yet more AAZ instead of gambling it on TXP.

Stag1974

Should be clear from the imminent FY2025 financial statements.

Rhertig

“Might be believable if it didn't happen in 24 seconds.“

You are confusing minutes with seconds.

Aligator

Enjoy your dinner and have a great trip. I only know Botswana through Alexander McCall Smith’s books, but it sounds great.

What a truly remarkable overreaction to a couple of skeptical posters. Is the investment case for TXP so fragile that you will stoop to false accusations to silence dissent? Or do you genuinely think TXP is so great that you can’t believe more than one individual could think otherwise?

The threat to your capital is what it has always been, not posters who disagree with you but the rosy scenarios peddled by Paul Baay and his willing mouthpieces on Discord.

Ayecuramba

Seeing PIs lose money on AIM because they followed Pied Pipers like Paul Baay or the Discord Crew is hardly an occasion for celebration.

CR-3 could be something from which TXP (or at least shareholder value) does not recover, but, as I said to you before, my gut instinct is that the most likely CR-3 result is one the significance of which is not immediately clear - neither a “make” nor a “break”.

The MEEI said “should all four (4) wells in this campaign be successful, production from Central Block is forecasted to exceed 50 mmscf/d” (an additional 29 mmscf/d). So a sustainable 7.25 mmscf/d or more from CR-3 would clearly be a successful first step.

And yet the figures that folk have been floating on here in relation to CR-3 have drifted noticeably down over time. I am sticking with my gut instinct.

Ayecuramba

“those that think the past will be repeated are sitting on the side to say 'told u so'”

What would be the point of that? It would achieve nothing - the damage would already have been done.

Sturm

Enjoy your weekend.

Spudpeeler

“My prediction for next week is 16/18p”

Cheers.

Kpow

Fair point. Everything is priced in, including impatience.

Ayecuramba

I’m sure he’ll let us have his prediction for next week - which could see the Q4/FY update - soon.

Spudpeeler

“you will see it [14p] this week”

Unlucky again. Better luck next week.

Andrew

Doesn’t sound to me like CR-3 is going to make the Q4/FY update RNS.

Ross

Hardolestation

“glad i wasted a lot of your day tho”

Yes, telling me that your “99% chance” was not the same as a 99% probability certainly confused me. Well done you.

Hardolestation

You said “99% chance of 2-5 mmcf”. What is that if not assigning a probability? Did you misspeak?

Hardolestation

I’m confused. What probability are you now assigning to <2 mmcf long term. Still 1% or greater than that?

Hardolestation

I thought the hope was that the new CB wells wouldn’t be like the Cascadura wells with (at their best) big flushes then steep declines? I don’t see where <2 mmcf long term gets TXP, even if you think you can label it commercial.