Is TXP doomed to fail in everything it does?9 Mar 2026 08:16
Andrew
“Here they are, with Paul’s answers.”
Should PIs refer to AIM CEOs by their first names? Is any AIM CEO a PI’s friend?
The Discord way is to deploy Paul Baay Q&A against sceptical commentary. But remember that Paul Baay is basically sharing aspirations, aspirations he might not get away with in an RNS.
Seriously, do you ever look back at Paul Baay Q&As and compare them to how things actually panned out? Keynes said “When the facts change, I change my mind.” Discord says: “When the facts change, we turn a blind eye and jump on Paul’s new bandwagon.”
This has been the story of AIM O&G in Trinidad. The majors get the best assets and bespoke deals while the independents are left with marginal assets that have to be constantly repackaged and re-marketed to long-suffering shareholders.
Remember how TXP was going to be all about Ortoire? Then, when Ortoire turned out to be a very mixed bag, it focused on Cascadura. Then, when Cascadura disappointed with ferocious declines and an inability to reproduce initial success (and TXP failed to bail themselves out by acquiring TRIN on the cheap), TXP was going to be all about Central Block.
Will the next transition be from TXP being all about the Herrera in Central Block to being all about the Karamat in Central Block? Or something else? Time will tell.
And where does it all end? During its spectacular campaign of shareholder value destruction, the infamous Range Resources at one point even tried to pivot to pre-school education in China. I kid you not.
The nimblest traders have made money (and will continue to make money) from the ebb and flow of sentiment in companies like TXP, but long term investors have not. Check out its long term performance here:
https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/TXP
The 15 year chart is a sorry tale of shareholder value destruction in which even the Ortoire Spring is just a blip.
Ross
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