Member Info for rossannan

Hardolestation

“glad i wasted a lot of your day tho”

Yes, telling me that your “99% chance” was not the same as a 99% probability certainly confused me. Well done you.

Hardolestation

You said “99% chance of 2-5 mmcf”. What is that if not assigning a probability? Did you misspeak?

Hardolestation

I’m confused. What probability are you now assigning to <2 mmcf long term. Still 1% or greater than that?

Hardolestation

I thought the hope was that the new CB wells wouldn’t be like the Cascadura wells with (at their best) big flushes then steep declines? I don’t see where <2 mmcf long term gets TXP, even if you think you can label it commercial.

Hardolestation

You said “99% chance of 2-5 mmcf”. Is less than 2 mmcf still commercial?

Ayecuramba

As I said to Hardolestation, I have no idea. My gut instinct is that the most likely result is probably one the significance of which is not immediately clear - neither a make nor a break. I am also interested in the Q4 global production figure - if after CB optimisation this is no lower than the Q3 figure, that will be a modest positive.

Hardolestation

You are assuming that the chance of CR-3 being non-commercial is 1%, so you would think that.

Hardolestation

To point up the kind of assumptions on which they are basing buy/hold decisions, such as your “99% chance of 2-5 mmcf” or ab76’s apparent 75% chance of 7 to 10mmcf. My argument is that on AIM there is always time to wait for the actual data and then make your decision on that basis. It’s the difference between investment and gambling.

Hardolestation

I have no idea, which is why I don’t currently see TXP as a good bet either way. I would argue that the smart thing to do might be to wait until you have that information before taking your long or short position.

Hardolestation

Indeed. Let’s see what happens.

Maybe for once Paul Baay has had the sense to lock the dog in one room and the homework in another.

Hardolestation

“99% chance of 2-5 mmcf”

There we go.

Andrew

So you’re saying that you think there is a 75% chance of 7 to 10mmcf?

Ross

Sturm

Wait and see.

Andrew

“Prospects of a successful CR-3 result: 75%”

What is your definition of “a successful CR-3 result”?

Ross

“There’s not long to go now until we’re due to receive news on Central Block”

Make or break: place your bets. Or stay well away (recommended).

Boomerang180

Like I said, the majority of the posts on here are just noise.

Aligator

“Has there been an exchange of information on CR-3 which has elicited this increase?”

That would be very wrong.

Cornstar

True dat.

Boomerang180

“So a lot of time checking in and reading and answering posts”

You flatter me. I don’t read the majority of the posts on here, which are just noise. I am certainly interested in posts from the Discord crew because they tend to do the most damage, but if you look at my responses to those I am just repeating the same basic points. No significant time or effort is required. This all leaves me plenty of time for a healthy work/IPA balance.

Boomerang180

“I don't get why your spend your life here”

How long do you think it takes me to write my posts?