Member Info for rossannan

Stag1974

Indeed, timing is everything. TXP has arguably had its unicorn moment, but anyone who timed that perfectly did 15x in not much more than a year.

Interesting chart:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cy0dp1l57nxt?post=asset%3A272afeb6-8b30-495a-8c54-8493d253f424#post

Spudpeeler

“speak on Friday when it’s another 20% up”

Hope it works better for you than last time. The next news that’s due is the FY/Q4 update in two weeks, unless you know better.

Sturm

The ER?

Spudpeeler

What catalyst are you expecting by the end of the week?

Spudpeeler

Right here - apologies for not posting for a whole 36 minutes,

But perhaps a short-lived sale event.

Azerbaijan sharing a border with Iran is not working for AAZ today (also, copper is weaker). The risk that comes with a one country play.

Stag1974

Risk is overrated. A guy on the CAML LSE BB this morning made a very good point: “I think if you waste time searching for unicorns, you miss plenty of decent horses”.

I made a similar point on ADVFN last May:

“If anyone becomes interested in AXL on the back of ashkv's ramping, remember that he used to ramp TXP all day long using exactly the same format and reflect on how that turned out. Always DYOR and remember that BB rampers (even more so Telegram and Discord rampers) are bad for your wealth. No one should ever commit a significant amount of capital to shares like these. Even my beloved PTAL, as a single country play, is not for widows and orphans. Stock selection should really just be a question of choosing between Newmont and Barrick. Or you could have both. There you go - job done, PF secured - now you can go outside and play.”

In the ten months since then that PF has more than doubled.

Stag1974

The companies that tend to get the “benefit” of this sort of thing (you can also see this in my own sector when the gold price is rising) are the ones that have significant production, something TXP currently does not have. Maybe someday though. Or not.

Sturm

I’m waiting for the FY/Q4 update in a couple of weeks.

Sturm

“it’s skew”

If it was the market would likely have adjusted to correct it by now. The current share price is the market warning you to manage your expectations. It is up to you what you do with that. If you are well diversified and haven’t invested money you can’t afford to lose, it doesn’t really matter.

Sturm

You keep making this point about living in the past, but basing your analysis on audited accounts, confirmed production figures etc. instead of optimistic projections is not living in the past. It is simply a recognition that in AIM O&G projections/aspirations rarely materialise and historical data provides a better guide to a company’s trajectory.

This has certainly been the case since I started looking at TXP again nearly two years ago. You may believe that this is all about to change, but you are basing this on projections and aspirations rather than a trajectory, which is why I am saying that I would not bet on it.

As is the current share price.

Andrew

“It doesn’t seem very likely, but if CR3 fails to produce anything or enough to have made drilling it worthwhile, there will likely be some more share price pain.”

That is an understatement. Can you not see how all the way down from the 40s (and probably before that) the scenarios that haven’t seemed very likely to Discord have happened nevertheless?

Paul Baay has said specifically that “the ultimate deliverability [of CR-3] will not be known until the well is completed and tied into the facility”. That puts you on notice to think very carefully about the balance of risk and reward here, to factor in the debt mountain and be wary of making the same kind of assumptions about CR-3 that you made about Cas-5.

As does the current share price.

Ross

Sturm

Enjoy your weekend.

Andrew

“2P reserves with a net present value of $315 million after tax provides a lot of protection against short-term drilling disappointments.”

The first rule of AIM O&G is that theoretical future production doesn’t protect shareholder value from a cash flow/debt mountain pincer movement.

Ross

Andrew

“I hope to see 30p quite soon”

And where do you see the share price if CR-3 is not commercial?

Ross

TDT

Cheers.

Strange slow burner effect here this week. What has happened today? A tip or new coverage?

Spudpeeler

“This week is the start, expect 10s by wed/thurs”

What went wrong? What catalyst didn’t materialise?