Member Info for rossannan

Sturm

As I said, I’ll stick with you, on the off chance that you actually say something about TXP.

Neversellshell22

Helpful summary. It emphasises the attractive diversification that has seen this become my biggest O&G investment (though the less diversified Serica is a close second and the not diversified at all PTAL is pretty chunky too).

Sturm

No, I’ll stick with you, on the off chance that you actually say something about TXP.

Sturm

“already answered”

Answered by Ab76? I missed that.

But staying over $5K is good too.

Deedee1

Just don’t put all your eggs in this basket. The risk/reward looks good, even allowing for country/political risk, but if the latter materialises you could lose the lot.

Sturm

The “fact” is the trajectory of non-CB production, which these TXP-derived figures both set out and back up:

7,015 boe/d (Q1 24)

6,223 boe/d (Q2 24)

5,211 boe/d (Q3 24)

5,287 boe/d (Q4 24)

4,317 boe/d (Q1 25)

2,924 boe/d (Q3 25)

What I was (and am still) asking Ab76 was what sort of compressor-driven change to this trajectory he expected and how quickly he expected it to materialise.

The “opinion” I offered was this:

“My best guess at the most likely outcome is stabilisation of non-CB production at its current low level, at least for a time, creeping back up to 3K boe/d at best. In other words, TXP will remain binary around CR-3 and the compressor is not going to help significantly.”

I am always interested in other opinions - when down the line it becomes clear what effect the compressor is having we will be able to see who had too much, too little or just the right amount of faith in PB.

Bit more volume needed here for further progress.

Give it time.

We don’t need that, we just need it to loiter in the vicinity.

Ab76

So once again you don’t have your own view but are happy to rely on PB’s take, even though he is a share promoter (that’s his job) and not an objective third party. How is that working out for you?

Ab76

Yes, but what sort of change to non-CB production do you expect and how quickly do you expect it to materialise?

Ayecuramba

Q4 in about 4 weeks. Important that they keep presenting the information in a way that identifies, or at least allows you to calculate, both CB and non-CB production.

Ayecuramba

My best guess at the most likely outcome is stabilisation of non-CB production at its current low level, at least for a time, creeping back up to 3K boe/d at best. In other words, TXP will remain binary around CR-3 and the compressor is not going to help significantly.

Ab76

“The compressor will support all the wells flowing through the Cascadura natural gas facility.”

So you will be looking for the compressor to change the trajectory that non-CB production (mainly derived from Cascadura) is currently on:

7,015 boe/d (Q1 24)

6,223 boe/d (Q2 24)

5,211 boe/d (Q3 24)

5,287 boe/d (Q4 24)

4,317 boe/d (Q1 25)

2,924 boe/d (Q3 25)

What sort of change do you expect and how quickly do you expect it to materialise?

Sturm

Tough crowd.

Seriously, just filter me if you don’t like my PoV.

Sturm

It was a joke! Don’t get me wrong: I certainly do not like TXP; but my post was about the thread getting diverted into politics.

Ab76

“It’s not a new field though. It’s second hand. You are waiting to find out whether you overpaid for it. Time will tell. If CR-3 disappoints, you did overpay for it (and that will have been the last throw of the dice for shareholder value here). The sceptical posters are not calling TXP down to zero, they’re just encouraging folk to recognise the gamble they’re taking and consider the possibility that the odds are not nearly as favourable as Discord would have them believe.”

Looks like discussion to me.

That is a very good point. When did Roland get the first clear indications that Selan were likely to walk, I wonder?

Sturm

It’s not a new field though. It’s second hand. You are waiting to find out whether you overpaid for it. Time will tell. If CR-3 disappoints, you did overpay for it (and that will have been the last throw of the dice for shareholder value here). The sceptical posters are not calling TXP down to zero, they’re just encouraging folk to recognise the gamble they’re taking and consider the possibility that the odds are not nearly as favourable as Discord would have them believe.