Member Info for rossannan

Sturm

I have better things to do than write you a lengthy essay. I am happy with the track record of my TXP PoV - what does yours look like, by comparison?

Over the last 20 months, since the attempted TRIN takeover, I have been clear and consistent in my criticism of TXP. You can say that I just got lucky, but I’ve found that the more critical I am of TXP, the luckier I get. I still don’t think that the risks outweigh the rewards, even at 9p. Time will tell whether I get lucky again.

What worries me is that you just don’t seem to see the now substantial risk of TXP going to zero (or as near as makes no difference).

And there’s the rug pull.

Sturm

“re-rating optionality” “asymmetry” “a skewed payoff”

Loving your obfuscatory verbiage!

Ab76

“Touchstone's short term success is dependant upon a good CR3 result.”

No, your last chance of recovering significant shareholder is dependent on a good CR-3 result. Only in the absence of TXP’s crippling debt pile would this merely be about short term success.

What you have here has been fairly described by others as a coin toss: unattractive either as an investment or a gamble. The reward does not outweigh the risk: 9p is about right - the market gets it even if Discord doesn’t.

Just getting the main construction underway will be a big win, but no one is even holding their breath for that, let alone takeover speculation.

But the share price action does suggest an incoming rug pull of some kind. Time will tell. Possibly too much time, knowing Roland.

The most significant risk to the price of GDP is definitely a mixed bag update this week. Everybody be sure to read the update to the end before taking a view, however good the headlines look. If it’s a “clean” update, we’re game on.

TenBagger1

The most significant risk to the price of gold is probably politicians agreeing to do hard and difficult things. So, you know…

Ayecuramba

My pleasure.

John2727

“many here have suffered in different ways after misreading the landscape back in 2021”

Not entirely their fault though, was it? That landscape was, after all, painted for them by Paul Baay. The brushwork he used for the wall of cash looming on the horizon was just masterful.

The last five years have seen Paul Baay presiding over significant operational and financial ineptitude and a pretty slippery communications strategy. If you think otherwise you are either too close to PB or have just not been paying attention. Or both. G_G_G’s ire towards PB is understandable, but he is still missing an important point. The last five years have also seen it becoming increasingly clear that Ortoire is just not all that. The money maker is looking more like a money pit (the compressor, for example, just sounds like damage limitation).

A false “poor management/great assets” narrative has definitely kept some folk hanging on in the hope that a change of management would make all the difference or that the assets would grow shareholder value despite the management. The reality though is that TXP has seen a perfect storm of poor management and marginal assets.

It’s all really down to Central Block now. If TXP cannot successfully reinvent itself around Central Block it is pretty much done and G_G_G is well out of it.

G_G_G

Good luck with it. Just be careful putting that number of eggs in one basket, and a one country one at that. No need to be a stranger though.

Tobin

Agreed - absent a general crash this should, IMO, be a better year for O&G than folk are predicting:

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=Global%20oil%20prices.&text=Global%20inventories%20continue%20increasing%20into,average%20%2454%2Fb%20in%202027.

Sturm

You could argue that AIM is a waste of time whatever your parameters. Does the recent bull market in precious metals not demonstrate that? The average AIM gold play has done very little compared even to majors like Newmont and Barrick, which have done 3x and more.

It’s often smart to sell into tips and you can see that a few folk have done this. But with what promises to be a positive update due next week, even though this is a tired ramper cliche, I just don’t want to be out over the weekend. There is risk, but a totally “clean” update should see significant further share price appreciation.

Definitely raises our profile and puts us back on the radar.

Ab76

That may be your perception of T&T O&G, but others are less sanguine, even with T&T under new management:

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/sep/19/trinidad-tobago-economy-oil-gas-fossil-fuels-climate-green-transition#:~:text=Today%2C%20with%20a%20population%20of,the%20state%2Downed%20Petrotrin%20company.

And I am sure that you are well aware of the longstanding “two-tier” approach of the T&T Government, which ensures that the oil and gas majors have very different experiences and outcomes than the independents.

As for Parkmead, it was surely a footnote in an appendix that Buffet never read. There is no comparison between the likes of Touchstone, Parkmead and the few serious O&G companies at the top end of AIM (such as Serica, CalEnergy’s new partner).

Surely what we have is FOHA…

I think he means AAZ:

https://x.com/saylor/status/2019426255268204617?s=20

This is what we await (from the FAQs):

“The exact quantum cannot yet be determined until the Company receives a Lower Tax Withholding certificate from the Indian tax authorities. The tax certificate has been applied for and should be received in January 2026.

The proceeds are subject to both withholding tax and GST. We expect the withholding tax to fall in the 15-30% range. The GST on the transaction is to be shared equally with Selan and will be an additional 9% net.

The Company will update shareholders in due course when the tax position has been clarified and it has finalised plans for the capital return.”

Laura2022

“Offering 11.6p for 250,000 shares”

You’re not getting mine!