Member Info for rossannan

Yes, 362,500 shares. GDP has done okay for me but my focus is on much larger companies like Newmont, Barrick etc. which have been great - GDP has been frustrating by comparison. It all comes down to next week’s announcement for me - if it is not a “clean” update and is in any sense yet another “mixed bag”, I will be looking to move on.

G_G_G

Time will tell. CR-3 is so material either way that PB is arguably obligated to report on it as and when and not wait for the next quarterly update in about 6 weeks. But my impression is that he buries or at least delays bad news if he thinks he can get away with it, so any early CR-3 news will likely be good news.

We’re not really a producer though, and DRD are probably happy enough with the current arrangements. If they did make a move it would probably be as lowball as MO would let them get away with and basically share for share, with maybe a small cash component at best.

VernetLes

You have to agree that today’s RNS is badly timed though - classic AIM. Maybe entirely outwith their control, but maybe not.

Highlandmatt

You kindly provided a link to the presentation and I looked at the particular slide that you highlighted - do you not accept that that slide is mainly comprised of forecast production that did not pan out, rather than actual production, particularly bearing in mind the wells shown on it that had not even been completed at that point?

Ayecuramba

“or we can just say we think your wrong and leave it at that”

That might work for you, but not Johnoxxx, I suspect.

VernetLes

To be fair though, if we do get a “clean” announcement next week it would be reasonable to expect a bit of a buzz, some coverage and possibly even a tip, making 15p+ a distinct possibility. But in the meantime the market is waiting to see the whites of GDP’s eyes.

Johnoxxx

As I said, if you think I am wrong and that there is in fact a TXP presentation that has stood the test of time, by all means post a link to it and we can all have a look at it.

Johnoxxx

As I said, if you think I am wrong and that there is in fact a TXP presentation that has stood the test of time, by all means post a link to it and we can all have a look at it.

VernetLes

“15p easy first target with a buyer in the market”

Nothing is easy right now. There’s a lot of inertia and frankly distrust to overcome here. Those familiar with GDP will be waiting to see what is bundled with the good news that we’ve been “warned” about. For many, many others, this one is not even on the radar. So the first target is getting a “clean” announcement next week. Then we’ll talk.

Johnoxxx

If you think I am wrong and that there is a TXP presentation that has stood the test of time, by all means post a link to it and we can all have a look at it.

Johnoxxx

Time has definitely not been kind to TXP’s projections for the Cas A wells, projections on which the thoroughly discredited “wall of cash” thesis was built!

G_G_G

It’s sensible to think of it as a bet rather than an investment, but I think that debt pile will dictate a fundamental reassessment if CR-3 fails, even if potential positive catalysts remain down the line. Similarly, even moderate success at CR-3 is not going to result in the kind of share price appreciation that some are talking about, not with the drag of that debt pile. Only a very robust result from CR-3 will put TXP on the “rose petal path”. Time will tell, but I do not like the balance of risk and reward (in case you hadn’t guessed).

G_G_G

“what i don't agree with is the existential threat to txp if cr3 is like casc 3-5 i.e. poor to very poor. they can manage debt easily from cashflow”

When I talk about an existential threat, I am talking about an existential threat to shareholder value, not to TXP itself which will undoubtedly rumble on in some form and continue to fund PB’s lifestyle.

Highlandmatt

Yes, but that slide is mainly comprised of forecasts that did not pan out.

Johnoxxx

“admit you've been caught lying”

Please elaborate, I’m not following you.

Sturm

“The market pricing CR-3 near zero today reflects uncertainty”

Which is entirely rational. The market is looking at the debt pile and assessing what success at CR-3 would look like on that basis as, on the flip side, the debt pile means that failure at CR-3 would be an existential crisis for TXP, or at least for shareholder value. It is all about the balance of risk and reward.

Highlandmatt

“The Cascadura wells decline then settle to steady production”

The figures that have been RNSed suggest otherwise. If there is going to be a “long tail” there is no evidence of it yet (and if there eventually is one, it is going to be very thin indeed). What would be interesting would be the production profiles of individual wells. The only such slides I have seen have been aggregated, masking the behaviour of individual wells.

John2727

“Cascadura, Central Block and legacy production are all real, producing and cash-positive, and together they cover debt service - albeit without much slack”

Yes, barely, on the latest figures we have, but my whole point is that the decline trajectory in non-CB production continues apace so that, contrary to what has been said on here, without success at CR-3 or a substantial Cascadura turnaround (compressor-led or otherwise) they will no longer cover debt service going forward.

Sturm

“On conservative assumptions”

People can assume anything they want and characterise those assumptions however they want. The usual suspects said similar things about Cas-5, another apparently perfect well (until it wasn’t). If you were genuinely making conservative assumptions the share price would reflect them.