Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
SeisNav
Very good post - you wouldn’t get away with insight like that in the ARCM Telegram Group. Majors basically have exploration subsidised by the long suffering shareholders of junior miners - they know how to sweat outfits like ARCM. If a deal does appear in the very near future we will be the exception that proves this rule (and will therefore do very nicely indeed).
“This is a terrible disappointment for Trinity and the poor share price performance this year won’t be made any better by the delay. Having said that when the company does decide to return to drilling there should be considerable upside.”
Not sure Malcy’s take adds much value.
LuckCounts
“His opinion that the TGAL FID would take place in 2020 was clearly predicated on SPT reform.”
Exactly my point. His take on the timing of TGAL FID turned out to be (way) wrong because his take on SPT reform was wrong. What I am saying is that you and posters like Pavey Ark and Ab76 need to consider the very real possibility that your current take on SPT reform is again wrong. In fact it seems to me more likely than not that either no news at all will emerge in June or no news will emerge on which commercial decisions can be made. As for successful tax reform at the end of the day, my sense is that the momentum has been lost. I am unimpressed by what sounds like increasingly empty rhetoric.
As I said before, I bet TRIN now wish that Galeota was in some other jurisdiction.
As for the opinions that you list, look again at what I actually said. It was mainly in response to the rampy takes of posters like Pavey Ark and Ab76 on these issues. Whether you like it or not, they were wrong. I do not recall predicting dramatic falls in production - more likely I was simply querying the uplifts that they were predicting. SCADA has certainly not been a game changer. Again I do not recall predicting dramatic uplifts in costs, although you have to admit that I did predict the cost uplift revealed in the most recent update. And when have I ever said that TRIN is not generating cash? All I have done is pointed out that it is not generating nearly as much cash as the rampers would have folk believe.
LuckCounts
1. To be fair, the only posters I describe as “rampers” are the rampers.
2. This is true, you cannot be sceptical enough about cash generation under the current fiscal regime.
3. Check again - I was referencing Pavey Ark on TGAL FID (Final Investment Decision).
4. The classic ramper mistake - treating aspirational management statements as all but bankable (see e.g. 3. above). And, of course, we will shortly find out what happens (or not) in June.
5. Just wrong - I am consistently sceptical.
6. By calling people rampers? Hardly.
7. And yet I have generally been right to be sceptical about TRIN when the supposedly well-researched Pavey Arks and Ab76s have generally been wrong.
8. All contributions to the debate are welcome (even from rampers).
LuckCounts
“You have been inconsistent - go back to your post where you claim that TRIN can only fall back so much due to value situation... and than turned tail...”
No, I was perfectly entitled to modify my view on the back of that last, rather disappointing, update. I had certainly thought that the value case significantly limited the downside, but as I pointed out at the time:
“Reflecting on yesterday’s update, particularly the financials, I don’t think anyone can now talk with a straight face about TRIN throwing off cash - it really does seem that the current fiscal regime has TRIN running to stand still. I am now less convinced that there is a value case here, not without significant fiscal reform anyway. The worry has to be that TRIN is being strung along on fiscal reform.”
The downside is not unlimited but it certainly seems bigger than it did only a couple of weeks ago.
LuckCounts
It doesn’t sound as if you are actually taking the time to read what I post. You should. You will find that whether or not I have been invested at the time I posted, my posts have been (a) remarkably consistent and (b) generally right. You and the others who talk their TRIN books on BBs can certainly claim (a) but you certainly cannot claim (b) as the RNSs demonstrate.
“It is clear your agenda... drumbeat roll of negative TRIN troll spin in a low volume share and than pick-up shares cheapily at these ridiculous prices due to low volumes to sell into news..... cunning little troll....”
Do you genuinely believe that BB posts have traction on the TRIN share price?
LuckCounts
Sorry, I would rather talk about TRIN. You crack on though and if you include anything about TRIN I will address that. For example, your “but TRIN is currently valued for a worst case scenario”. Really? Even if in June there is neither fiscal reform nor even any signalling of fiscal reform? Good luck with that.
LuckCounts
This BB is about TRIN, not about me. You can try, as did other abusive posters like Pavey Ark and Ab76, to make the conversation about me. You would obviously like me to go away, but that is not going to happen. The fact remains that I have called this better than any of you and was right to sell up after TRIN doubled from single figures and, in the absence of any immediate prospect of fiscal reform, concentrate on trading it. If you all stop talking your books and look at TRIN more objectively, you will do better.
LuckCounts
Again, name calling is pointless. Any number of posts, however abusive, are not going to make a blind bit of difference to the outcome here - this one is all down to whether or not meaningful fiscal reform happens.
No AIM share is worth getting that attached to. At some point the people involved let you down, or there is a problem with the jurisdiction the company is operating in, or both.
The people are not the problem here, but the figures in that last update, bad enough for me to put even the value case under review, illustrate that Trinidad and Tobago is a toxic jurisdiction - TRIN takes the risks but the rewards are forever withheld.
PipeDragger
What would they pay a special dividend out of other than their cash reserve? Would that make any sense?
They are certainly not making enough of a profit to justify a dividend, not under the current, rather toxic, fiscal regime. Yes, the Government make encouraging noises in the direction of TRIN and other oil companies from time to time, but I doubt that these are the same noises they make in the direction of their base.
The Government have a small, but distinct, window of opportunity to do the right thing.
Time will tell what they do with it.
In theory, yes. But it is interesting to explore this idea.
Right now, under the current fiscal regime, TRIN looks a bit like a hamster in a wheel - and it looks as if the powers that be like it that way. Employment is created, both directly and indirectly, and very significant amounts of tax are paid. There is certainly enough revenue left over to pay some substantial BoD salaries. But I am not seeing significant shareholder value being generated and, more importantly, neither is the market.
So can Galeota generate significant shareholder value without meaningful fiscal reform? Well, what has been negotiated on Galeota certainly contains some useful sweeteners. But without substantial changes to the SPT regime, any potential farm down partner will still see a fiscal regime that remains unfriendly and will perhaps wonder how much profit they will actually be allowed to make over time. This will not help TRIN’s bargaining position and, if the farm down does go ahead, it will likely then be on terms that are significantly less shareholder friendly.
So if no meaningful fiscal reform emerges, will the TRIN BoD, undoubtedly a cut above the usual AIM suspects, go into bat for their shareholders? They could threaten to shelve Galeota and to start deploying TRIN’s capital in more friendly jurisdictions, for example. Or will they just get Galeota done to grow the business but without anything like the kind of uplift in shareholder value that the folk invested here are hoping for?
Time will tell.