Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
PipeDragger
Agreed, I think they are further behind than they are admitting. Hardly a surprise. But I do not agree that 300 bopd would be a great result. 500 would, but not 300 - it would take them ages to get their money back at 300 bopd and declining.
Ab76
“If you don’t think a company is any good, what basis do you have to believe that others will invest and raise the share price.”
What happens on AIM every day? In particular the history of TRIN and other AIM oilers?
Ab76
“Trinity have maintained production at around 3,000bopd for years, despite normal depletion rates of 10%.”
Yes, but (as you know from their recent presentation) they have admitted that they will not be able to maintain it in future.
SuperRoty
“a big discounted placement to flow test and bring the well into production”
Not sure that even the most sceptical folk on here think that, and there are few on here more sceptical than me. Folk sell for a rainbow coalition of reasons.
PipeDragger
So what? TXP’s last Royston production test “produced light crude oil, with wellhead shut in pressure up to 2,450 pounds per square inch. Production flowed to the surface at non-commercial rates. This section of the formation appears to be a low permeability reservoir, and further testing will not be conducted.”
The Royston wellhead figure could presumably have been 3,500psi with the same result. And Jacobin’s production tests could presumably still be as disappointing as Royston’s have been thus far.
Https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/trinity_exploration/news/rns/story/xp865mr
Ab76
If lower level oil is not found, that will be a massive blow. How long would Jacobin have to produce from the shallower levels to pay back its cost? In fact, could it ever? If no lower level oil is found - or even if just no commercial lower level oil is found - will you be saying “Bring Me the Head of James Menzies”? Maybe you should be. Maybe it will finally be time to use your substantial TRIN shareholding to drive management changes.
All the best
Ross
63%. Let’s assume that when James Menzies arguably put his job on the line with that figure and his appraisal comment, he had a sound basis for doing so (such as data from older analogous wells). But what does a CoS figure actually mean? Is there a 63% chance here of a transformational, share price popping result from Jacobin? No. Any CoS figure covers a range of outcomes, from marginal commerciality to the kind of best case figures that lead retail punters astray. What is the percentage chance of a transformational, share price popping result from Jacobin? Much lower. Even James Menzies, if pressed, would have to admit that.
Ab76
Perhaps Cenkos did not miss anything but simply felt that 33% was realistic. They have of late been injecting such doses of reality, another example being that revised 2023 production estimate.
So James Menzies has indeed made a bold statement about Jacobin. I would point out that TRIN are in share promotion mode here and that you might therefore want to take that figure of 63% with a pinch of salt.
TRIN have form for making aspirations sound a bit like forecasts - stay cynical.
Ross
Ab76
A genuine 63% CoS below 5500 feet probably translates into a near 100% chance of finding oil below 5500 feet. So why even contemplate the possibility of a duster?
Why does the Jacobin CoS keep changing? We have had 50% then 33% and we now have 63%.
Do you know enough about the migration of oil from source rock to reservoir rock to say that “the presence or absence of oil in any one reservoir is unlikely to meaningfully increase or decrease the prospect of it being in another”?
ATB
Ross
I remember that from The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time. I guess this is more observational than mathematical - the CoS for exploratory drilling, stacked targets or not, is typically no more than 30% or 1 in 3. It is like they are telling us we are getting three exploratory drills for the price of one. I just won’t buy that until an independent geologist, who can give us chapter and verse on oil migration, for example, tells us otherwise, namely that they can multiply up the probabilities like that.
Ab76
That does not answer my question, which is whether it is correct to say that what is actually found at one level in a given well makes NO difference to the CoS at any other level in that particular well. Unless that statement is correct, TRIN would appear to me to be using misleading methodology.
As I said before, if there is a geologist out there your answer to my question would be most welcome.
ATB
Ross