Bitfarms is on course to mine 400 BTC this month with 1.5EH. ARB is expected to have installed hashrate of 1.7EH by Oct.
If difficulty doesn’t increase significantly over the next few months then ARB could be looking at almost 500 BTC in Oct.
I think many traders use ARB as a leveraged proxy for BTC and don’t pay a great deal of attention to the number of coins being mined.
IIs, who understand crypto mining, are already buying in significantly, and more PIs will start to understand crypto mining, and consider coins mined when buying in.
I think we’ll see 250+ BTC mined in the next operational update (so 50% more revenue), but I think there will only be a very minor increase in SP.
A lot of people are expecting ETC to be mined.
But ETH 2.0 keeps being delayed - I believe current thoughts are until late-2022 - so I can see ETH being a viable option for mining until it moves to POS. ARB could then move to mining ETC and staking the ETH they’ve mined.
I’ve been saying this for weeks…
The market doesn’t realise that BTC at half ATH, but mining twice as many coins = BTC at ATH.
I think the market believes the hashrate will come online again soon and the BTC won’t increase - this is the reasonable worst case scenario. I think the opposite is more likely at the moment.
ARB is woefully undervalued.
What a comment… ARB doesn’t need people to go to Texas… you do realise that Bitcoin isn’t mined using a pick axe right?!
Bitcoin is mined using machines… fortunately these machines don’t really care if that corner of Texas is a ghost town.
Some people really do enjoy bashing ARB.
The thick and thin of it is that if BTC goes up then ARB’s share price will go up.
$14m of debt is a great idea if you think BTC is going up; what’s the point in selling 450 BTC when you could sell 100 BTC in a few months time.
Now down to 25% reduction… ARB will be mining 2x the number of BTC compared to recent months, which is convenient given that it’s price has halved. If things stay as is, ARB could have a hodl of 3000+ BTC by year end.
But… ARB’s price will still mostly follow BTC with very few investors paying attention to the number of coins mined. And people on this board will say “ARB is fairly valued when BTC = $x”.
Amazing news! Good job we have a priority supply agreement with ePIC!!
This will undoubtedly impact the expansion plans of RIOT, MARA, BITF et al.
Looking at the margins and average cost of BTC… breakeven is around $11-12k.
But, as mining difficulty is currently down 25% and like to drop another 15-20%, breakeven will be closer to $6-7k.
Good job we’re all invested in one of the (if not the) most efficient BTC miners out there.
Really informative. I read that epic are working with TSMC and have been wondering how they, as a startup, will get any fab capacity at all.
Going with 10nm is the way forward - will be interesting to see what this does for efficiency (I think S19s use 7nm chips) but if epic design something good here, we could be looking at almost efficient as S19s but much cheaper (and can actually buy one!).
I’m looking forward to finding out more about the miner epic are developing for Argo but all sounds pragmatic so far.
And related to Argo - as a blockchain company - no, not everything can be made scarce in the digital world - that has been the problem! You can literally copy and paste anything in the digital world (a contract, a music track, a movie etc.) there is potentially a limitless supply of anything digital, which can make it difficult to extract value from digital goods.
However, blockchain tech - and the immutability of a blockchain’s content - can help to limit the supply of digital goods, thus making it easier to attribute value. NFTs are probably the closest solution the the above problem but smart contracts, crypto etc. all solve a lot of big, real-world problems, and Argo will be able to provide the infrastructure to solve these.
This isn’t a normative issue, it’s a positive one. It’s not about opinion, it’s about fact. You previously argued that hashrate gives BTC its value, it - objectively - doesn’t.
You’ve now seen the light and are saying that popularity and uptake (AKA demand) gives it value and difficulty to obtain it (AKA scarcity of supply) gives it a store of value.
Yes, the most scarce good on the planet would be worthless if nobody wanted it. BTC price wouldn’t increase if supply increased at the same rate as demand; BTC price would decrease if supply was greater than demand (or have no value if unconstrained). The beauty of BTC is that it’s supply halved every 4 years, thus constraining supply. Even if demand remained constant (I.e. No increase in BTC volume over time), BTC price would increase (double!) due to the halving. It’s no coincidence that price increases take place 6-12 months after a halving, and these price increases help to increase popularity/demand.
Hashrate doesn’t drive either supply or demand. The network could be 1EH or 100EH and there would still be 144 blocks/900 coins (on average) mined every day, so a fixed supply. Demand is driven a whole range of factors but definitely not driven by hashrate. Although, as you suggest, hashrate does serve as a good proxy for demand - but it’s a correlate rather than a covariate.
BTC does not derive value from the effort put in to mine it - yes, there’s a correlation, but it’s not a great one because hashrate has also gone up whilst BTC sentiment has been bearish/price has gone down.
BTC derives value by virtue of its scarcity - its price increases due to dynamics of supply and demand.
Bull runs ~6-18 months after a halving aren’t driven by an increase in hashrate, they’re driven by constant demand and halved supply, which in turn drives the price up, and in turn results in new investors chasing increased prices - increased demand for a recently halved supply. This is essentially what the S2F model is estimating .
Miners are perpetually chasing (not driving) increasing BTC prices but are still very early adopters relative to the population.
Difficulty is essentially just a ‘speed limit’ that ensures an average of 144 blocks are mined per day (1 every 10 minutes) regardless of hashrate. A decrease in hashrate does not mean supply is greater than demand.