focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
This bb is, by far, the best on lse.
Some incredible contributors, with incredible knowledge, that many are incredibly grateful to.
The trolls have been out in force for the past few months, but I know the good times will return and the incredible insight will be in free flow once more.
Just to set the record straight, I wrote:
“ I’ve estimated about $250m.”
You even quoted it - verbatim.
You do realise that estimate ? fact, right? I even wrote that it’s my estimate, so it could never be fact.
You might be a cantankerous ****e but that’s no excuse for poor comprehension.
Of my entire post, you pick out probably the least important, most tangential, element - the $250m.
It could be any number and the points I’ve raised would still stand.
Anyway, $250m comes from;
- ~3EH worth of machines will cost of about $120m (as per the recent Mara order)
- Construction of the facility will cost ~$20m
- I’m assuming the immersion
And the worst part about it all - and I’m surprised nobody has mentioned this yet - is that PW will be looking at the IPO as a capital raise. He’ll have a $ figure in mind for what is needed to get Texas operational - I’ve estimated about $250m.
If the SP is sitting in the doldrums at $2 a share, then that’s 125m shares or ~33% dilution. If the SP is $7.50 a share, that’s 33m shares or ~9% dilution. My $250m may be wrong but the same logic applies whatever figure you estimate.
PW needs to be doing whatever he can to get the SP up so that he minimises dilution from the IPO - otherwise we’re going to be well and truly shafted.
I’m writing this and I’m realising how annoyed I am about how the machines/ePIC situation is playing out. Machines are bitcoin miners’ bread and butter - Mara have just announced they’re buying 30,000 machines, yet PW hasn’t announced any new machines (above 1.6EH) for 6 months and ePIC are clearly well behind schedule - it’s Mr Bean-esque.
Regarding the point about ARB keeping its plans/news close to its chest… I completely disagree.
Look at Bitfarms. Mara, Riot etc. even the faintest sniff of positive news is released. It’s because they realise that investment is competitive.
As more people look to invest in bitcoin mining (which is already happening, and I’d say we’re still at an early adopter stage) they’ll be looking at news and fundamentals in order to make a decision.
As things stand, ARB’s recent news has been poor (cancelled orders, allegations of fraudulent behaviour) and it’s fundamentals are slipping*.
Therefore any potential inflow of investment into the sector is going to go to Bitfarms, Mara or Riot. Yes, some people will trade and switch between miners, but the vast majority of capital will be invested and remain where it is invested. If PW doesn’t pull his finger out then Argo will miss all of that investment. There was a time when people were talking about Mara, Riot and Argo - this is no longer the case because PW hasn’t bought any new machines and seems to have been dragging his feet over a NASDAQ listing.
I sincerely hope PW doesn’t share the mentality that Argo should be keeping its news close to its chest.
(*As other miners buy more machines and eat into ARB’s share of total hashrate. Yet, PW is letting (our diluted) $5m sit completely unutilised in ePIC’s accounts when it could be used to generate a return by buying Bitmain machines right now.)
That’s not what I’m saying. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect hard evidence - he’s the CEO of a publicly traded company. If he and his team lie, he and his team get in big trouble.
I think he’s a decent guy, and I don’t think he’d mislead investors.
What I am saying is that there have been some major changes to previously RNSd plans and these have been poorly explained by a CEO who appears to take pride in his transparency. The explanation he offered earlier in the week was, in fact, not transparent.
Confidence in the sector has taken a huge beating recently.
Yes, PW has done a sterling job of PR, but I’d argue that’s benefitted other miners rather than ARB. He can keep selling the sector, but it’s highly competitive and unless he sells ARB, new investors will just look at RIOT and MARA.
The machines situation is farcical too - his cosmetic response just isn’t good enough. Proof of work is competitive, MARA’s 30,000 new machines and Chinese miners coming back online will just eat into ARB’s share of hashrate, meaning fewer BTC mined.
Yet, PW appears to be completely relaxed about the ePIC machine situation going completely tits up.
This week hasn’t been good for PW. I actually don’t find his video response very helpful.
It was papering over the cracks at best; no real details on the ePIC decision, just a cosmetic explanation of new technology. He should be explaining what has changed since the ePIC RNS earlier in the year and why. That was a formal announcement of news, and if something has changed then we should be told why. Also, why keep $5m deposited rather than use this to buy new machines from Bitmain now prices have dropped - that $5m could be used to mine a lot of BTC before this bull run ends, which could then be used to buy ePIC machines.
The Texas purchase wasn’t really explained well either; “We think it was a good deal” and “Shovel-ready project” just isn’t sufficient. Why exactly was it a good deal?
What happened to the $100m debt facility too?
Transparency isn’t really transparency if you aren’t really explaining things properly - some detail is needed, especially at times like these.
And Dr Long, you’re a toxic individual - as soon as you get involved, this board just descends into farce.
Respectfully, can you just leave this board to those who are invested rather than pop in to just decimate any chance of reasonable discussion or debate.
As above, go and do something productive with your life rather than waste it by constantly arguing on here.
This is the second night several people in this thread have spent hurling abuse at each other…
Do you lot have nothing better to do? We get 80*365 days on this planet if we’re lucky, and you’ve wasted 2 of them.
I was thinking that; a few very silly shorters would likely have lost their shirts today if not for that report.
I think it was released purely to suppress the SP so the shorters could cover their positions.
It’s pure market manipulation and it’s shocking; hopefully the FCA will investigate this report but I suspect it’s shady/borderline anonymous so that tbd author can’t be tracked.
Not sure I’d echo your sentiments re not much has happened.
The ePIC partnership/order seems to have gone tits up - and I’m not sure it’s due to chip shortage (I’m sure that would have been mentioned).
A research report has been released that suggests some shady dealings re the Texas land purchase.
I’d like PW to provide some explanations re both the above when he wakes up.
Do we have any indication as to precisely when the NASDAQ listing will take place yet?
Or is it Q3 (I think) still?
I’m slightly concerned that ARB could miss the boat if not early Q3 - there will be huge amounts of capital flowing into BTC and miners in the next few months (it has already started). Many II’s can/will not invest in companies traded OTC and these II’s won’t wait for ARB, they’ll just put their money in a competitor.
PW’s timing has been impeccable thus far, but the next few months could be some of the most important in bitcoin’s history (and thus ARB’s).
Or to sell BTC which both PW and Seb also said…
They said that selling BTC at good times can allow them to reinvest that in new miners which will return multiples of the initial investment.
ARB will probably be able to sell half their hodl towards the end of the year for at least $100m.
You could probably see some sort of financing arrangement where MS would give ARB $x to get x% of Bitcoin mined, for a period or for a portion of the miners.
When BTC hits $100,000, $500m would buy you 5000 BTC, but this would also drive the price up, so you’d probably get far less.
Spend $500m on S19s and you’d mine 5000 BTC in <2 months, but you’d keep mining thousands more BTC following on from that.
I think Saylor will be putting future money into miners and expecting returns in BTC.
I’ve been getting a similar impression.
I thought that ARB offering some Texas space/capacity to Chinese miners was pretty much common knowledge as as it’ll likely take a couple of years+ to fill out the facility with their own equipment.