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Last time BTC was at $32k ARB was mining 25% fewer coins than they are at current difficulty levels. That will be 30-40% fewer next week.
As your post suggests, people are using ARB as a proxy for BTC - and not valuing it based on all relevant variables.
Whilst all the whales are accumulating BTC at low prices before they let it run, ARB are doing exactly the same.
I’d be interested in peoples thoughts about ARB’s potential share price increases as BTC price increases…
The expectation is that BTC will reach $150k during this bull run, but will likely exceed that and could hit $300k.
That’s a 5-10x increase in BTC price. Given that ARB is a leveraged play on BTC, what do we think ARB’s price increase could be?
Personally, I think ARB is undervalued at current mining difficulty - assuming 250 BTC monthly and a hodl of 2200+ by Oct - BTC at $150k would equate to $300m+ on the balance sheet with ~$35m per month revenue. A P/E of 10 would put ARB at ~$4bn market cap, so a ~6x increase.
But, with FOMO (and a NASDAQ listing), I can see that going substantially higher (~8x). And if BTC starts
I think the only risk is that people generally don’t understand Bitcoin, and Bitcoin miners even more so, and struggle to value it effectively.
Any thoughts?
Anyone else spotted the massive fall in total BTC hashrate recently? Down by a half on it’s March/April highs.
BTC hashrate often precedes it’s price so let’s see what happens there…
But, difficulty is expected to drop by 5% on Sunday, meaning ARB should be mining 25% more coins than the past few months - 200+ coins per month - and that’s without taking into account new machines.
Total hashrate is down at the moment - probably temporarily - but there’s a chance it’ll be longer-term if the Chinese govt truly are cracking down on mining.
If total hashrate stays as is, and ARB’s hashrate increases to 1.7EH, then 300 BTC per month isn’t out of the question. If BTC takes off again then transaction fees will add a decent amount to that too.
On the transaction fees, these have tended to be higher than the value of the BTC block reward during the height of historic bull runs.
Seems like some serious fretting going this eve due to the SP.
If you think BTC is going up long term then why are you worrying? The next week or so is probably a good time to consider buying more.
If you think BTC is going down long term then why on Earth are you invested in ARB. Why are you even on this BB? Perhaps you should do something more productive with your time, especially while the weather is so good.
Too many day traders looking for a quick fortune these days - some people on here would be better off at their local bookies with their expectations of investing.
To buy Ethereum at a relative low, and stake it for POS returns - which I think are ~7% per month… bigger than BTC growth for the next 4 years (until the next halving and bull run). Also, I think we’ll start to see ETH growing faster than BTC in future bull runs - in the current one ETH has grown from ~$200 - $4500, BTC has grown from $10,000 to $60,000.
POW mining Bitcoin et al. will still be taking place on top of those ETH POS returns too.
Agreed. PW keeps mentioning that ARB are a blockchain company.
I think primarily ARB will end up
Pricing blockchain services for other companies - lots of companies are looking at blockchain and decentralised ledgers as a way to store/manage data. Web 3.0 will make blockchain and decentralised ledgers the norm.
I think POW mining will still be a long term focus for the business too (why else buy all that land and mining machines), but with a shift towards POS too.
I’d like to see ARB sell all their BTC during the height of the next bull run (hopefully end of the year!) and buy Ethereum a few months after the bull run starts and stake it all. BTC (and whatever else) mining will still be taking place in addition to any Ethereum POS returns.
As always, timing and execution will be key to ARB’s success.
Sorry for those that lost their money. Shame they couldn’t see the solid fundamentals.
…but it’s much better for those still invested as ARB now has a much stronger base; there will be some strong support levels for future drops going forward.
Depends on how many new machines have been installed this month - isn’t the plan 1.7EH by end June?
Difficulty was down for the first half of the month and up for the second half, so broadly similar to last month.
ZEC price is down on average throughout the month so less BTC equivalent. Although difficulty is down too so may have mined more.
I’m going for 185 total - dependent on how installation of the new machines is going.
The $2 requirement also requires the price to have been above that for 90 consecutive days.
Closing at $3 will be enough to meet one of the other listing standards for the Capital Markets tier. Closing at $4 will be enough to get on the Global Markets tier.