focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
If a company can develop quantum computing for blockchain, then blockchain might not be a wise investment.
Obv not financial advice and DYOR - specifically on the potential impacts of quantum computing on cryptographic hashing.
I think a lot of people are waiting for BTC to break and hold $40k… then they’ll pile in.
BitDigital is on for a 100% day… and I think ARB is due a similarly large rerate if $40k breaks and holds (probably will happen after next week’s operational update).
But… longer term, many of us have been here before; rapid 30x growth to see most of our gains wiped out. Best to just rein in expectations and look longer term than to the end of the year; £20 will come one day, but I think it’s highly unlikely that it’ll be within the next 6 months.
Sorry - can see how I’ve caused confusion; I accidentally typed $150k for S2F rather than $100k.
A lot of crypto analysts mention how S2F as a regression model and therefore predicts a mean value for the phase, for the dependent variable (price). The bull run is likely to overshoot the estimate and the bear run will undershoot it, but these will regress to the mean/average out to the S2F estimate over the course of the phase.
From the person who repeatedly posts “50p tomorrow”.
…completely unsubstantiated, never supported with any evidence or analysis.
At least I’m posting some analysis. Yes, the S2F models are prediction models and have some flaws, but it’s evidence nonetheless. Better than you ever have to offer DrLong.
Found a nice chart on PlanB’s Twitter that plots both model estimates for the current bull run:
https://mobile.twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1411287372956942337/photo/1
The detail is a moot point as I think we’re both on the same page.
But, S2FX doesn’t look at years, it looks at phases, and the model is:
Market value = e(12.7598) * 56 ^ 4.1167 = $5.5T
https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/bitcoin-stock-to-flow-cross-asset-model-50d260feed12
S2FX estimates this bull run will hit $288k. Price in 2024 is modelled to be pushing into the $millions.
Anyway, ARB is a long term hold; my view is that BTC and blockchain adoption is going up in the long term, and ARB will keep expanding - with both hashrate and new value streams.
Pretty sure it all depends on the BTC price… which none of us can predict.
But if BTC reaches the S2FX estimate of $288k then I think ARB could easily be £10. Possibly even if it reaches the S2F estimate of $150k.
PW has timed this to perfection - fingers crossed that the bull run will recommence in Sept and ARB will be start trading on the NASDAQ right in the middle of it.