Member Info for RorkesDrift

I'm feeling dizzy

Wait for it, wait for it...

Wonder if this will impact wider market. If Germany has to go in to more demanding lock down economic impact will be felt everywhere.

Easier to get head around when assumptions are there.

I differ in

I'm think £3 profit per test (net - given overheads will be consistent). Based on Awastairs comment that CoGs are £2 and ASP is between £10 (public) and £30 (retail)

Number of tests I have lower because

1. Testing will reduce over time
2. Improved track and trace
3. Emerging competition

In UK 30M workers. Test 20%
I now think minimum 2 tests (see yesterday) per test cycle.
Weekly

For six months.

So 12M test x 26 weeks = 312M tests

Multiply UK by 10 to get worldwide

3.12B tests.

At £3 margin = £10B

Hang on that cannot be right. I came up with £2.1B last time

Insert drunken yellow emoji

RD puts date in calendar for three years out. Considers posting link about what constitutes a variation but cannot be aresd. Struggles to think of a single example of a drug given at 20x the dose in a new chemical form (i.e. a new chemical entity) requiring radical change in PK and is the FTIM that got through on simple dose study. Thinks Thalidomide, cox2, etc etc

Lies down and wishes that if you want something to be true or say it in an authorative manner rather than with even one example it makes it true.

I thought the whole point was to avoid a massive uplift in biosavilability?

Would this study be powered to show a statistical difference either with SoC or doses?

Love it

"The Covid19 part of the business is impossible to give an accurate valuation to as it depends on multiple aspects of success and global sales. But around £1 billion market cap would be close."

You know at school when they said show your working out.....

Were the animal studies single dose or multiple dose. If only single dose then not only will there be a need for more animal work but any trial recruitment period will need to extend for the duration of total treatment. I doubt phase II of that type will be sufficiently powered either.

Show me the light

Not a medical director, can work in the grey

You think they can go to market with phase II only?

I'd like to see it and to be honest I don't know but given enteric coated tablets still needed phase 3 and that tech was known I cannot see regulatory authorities allowing a known cardio toxic drug to be used at nearly 20x the standard dose without a bit more than a phase II.

Happy to admit I'm wrong but off the top of my head other than generics and biosimilars (neither brand new tech) I'm struggling to think of an example.

Mmmm - generic data will help with the expert opinion and smooth things along but I cannot see them allowing it to go to market without phase Iii including at least 12 months follow up. If recruitment takes 12 months you are at two years and need to include study set up and one end and regulatory process at the other. I got 0 hits on Awacta at clinical trials.gov.

Will also need comparative data to support health economics and any efficacy / tolerability claims.

HL (ISA) and Diego. Latter needs 2 days to clear funds but efficient.

Earnings from covid test will not be repetitive - disease prevelance will fall, competition will arrive etc. So PE approach does not work.

However Avacta will have significant cash in bank - so no dilution required and can do a simple asset value since most of it will be cash.

RK and MM opinion is not a recognised valuation method. Nice chaps but not Warren B.

Closest biotech I can think is Vertex - one disease wonder and worth $20B.

Pre- covid + £48M gives a value but to convert to SP need to recognise it will be a weighted average between 16p and 120p. Might need to adjust for profile and sentiment

If every opportunity is brought home then yes this could be a £10B company. Bringing pro-dox which will effectively replace dox ($1B) probably adds half that - at least 3 - 4 years away and significant risk. At present cannot ignore all the risks hence SP where it is - no point painting a picture of £50 SP without also recognising that its a long way to get there.

You could build a case for any share price but probably need to model RISK and RETURN. The Board did that three weeks ago and came up with £1.20

On 5 March 2020, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) announced new Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System (HCPCS) codes for health care providers and laboratories to test patients for SARS-CoV-2. Starting in April, laboratories performing the test could bill Medicare and other health insurers for services, using a newly created HCPCS code (U0001). This code applies to all tests that were developed by the CDC. Laboratories performing non-CDC laboratory tests for SARS-CoV-2 can bill for them using a different HCPCS code (U0002). Current test prices are $35.91 for U0001 and $51.31 for U0002.

A touch late but the best I can find

https://csb.mgh.harvard.edu/covid

How much would they need to raise

How much cash will a successful covid test bring in

Is that a rather large lady I hear tuning up....?

No

Brighter later

You are on a plane. You get tested when you land.

You test negative. Can you 100% say you are not infected.

NZ insist on three tests. Why?

The App is a standard UK SNAFU.

Hopefully at the end of this we can look st the way govt and civil service do things but I'm not holding my breath.

Ventilators were an issue cause truth is there wouldn't have been enough to cope - as it was most elective surgery requiring ITU was cancelled. If you want an example of what happens when you dont put worst case scenario in your planning look at PPE.

With antigen testing they have built up capacity whilst we were all locked down. The plan to flatten the curve was in essence give us time to get our shti together. So brakes are off not cause the risk has dissapeared but because there is no choice economically. Tritrating deaths against economy - just don't want to admit it.

How did we get in to this. Off to lie down.

A single test at a single point in time only makes sense if you have reasons for concern eg symptomatic.

If you want to go on the offensive then multiple tests is a given.

If I went to see my GP I'd like to think they were testing every day. If a patient came in with respiratory symptoms again test.

HSE will be all over this - inside spaces seem high risk. Regular testing reduces their litigation risk but also enables business to protect its assets (people) and keep them at work. I bet there are quite a few HR policies being updated.

Just read your post again

Is it because their strategy doesn't need one.

Let's look at the evidence

Car parks full of people in camouflage and PPE

Govt drive to get to 100k tests and beyond

50000 people employed in a track and trace.

App reliant on +ve or -ve test.

I'm now looking for the suitable Monty python sketch.