Member Info for Rookie1

Hi robrennie,

What is it about the housing market you think is lagging? I think it’s stalling.

I honestly think the reason for allowing so many illegals into the country is an excuse to keep house demand up and keep the whole system functioning. Because as soon as that demand stalls and house prices roll back, there is a huge amount of first time buyers with zero equity and infact in the red in some cases for up to £50k on help to. It schemes. The system cannot afford to let demand faulty (which it is imo) because when it goes we will see such a huge crash imo.

Agree,NAVMIKE.

I also don’t want to see HBR becoming a bigger company but with bigger debts and more dilution.

I think we have enough to deal with now, let’s maximise production and get this debt brought down. I don’t care how cheap it is, it’s off putting to investors and in a volatile world with trump at the helm it makes us a mid/high risk investment.

And do not waste money on buybacks. Theres always someone selling into them and then Llog holders win again.

I know it’s an extremely simplistic view and totally different levels of risk investments, but BP and shell both have around market cap 8-9x their FCF. At current prices we are around 5x.

Give HBR 12 months and hopefully a year of $70 oil and we need a serious re rate. Theres 100% upside here without lifting the EPL and Llog increase in production.

Back to double digits by close hopefully.

I only want 35-40p for my shares Harry, just take us private and get the falklands dream on the road.

Hi Mr A,

I was going to ask everyone’s opinions on Lloyd’s results because as far as I can see they looked solid so expected Barcs to push on.

My thoughts are similar to Robrennie, I wonder if everything is already priced in? There is a hell of a lot uncertainty in the markets aswell, is trump going to bomb Iran and kick off a major war? Is the EU openly snubbing trump by making deals with China? Are we heading for a recession? Ireland reporting they are officially in a recession and the economic fall is gathering pace.

From a TA pov Minor Support at 4.80 broken (again) so maybe time to push lower?

Next Support around £4.55…

Who knows…

Trump won’t not attack. He is completely owned by Isreal and will act in their interests everytime. I don’t think Iran will take further attacks with no retaliation this time either so it could get nasty. Although I hope no civilians are caught up in it all.

The whole “Iran nuclear programme” narrative is getting a bit old now. I’ve listened to it for the last 20 years and only 6 months ago trump claimed he had completely destroyed it all.😂 he’s an absolute clown and a danger to humanity.

Thanks,rumpel.

It’s either conviction or am just a very stubborn fool,Lol.

It really could be either.

ATB

Saying that, 2026 fcf would end up looking very attractive even if debt was still $6B and then the year after that we would have production ramping up from llog and then 2028 the windfall tax expires. So from that perspective the debt will start to look extremely manageable even if these prices persist long term.

I don’t see HBR going anywhere fast in 2026 but long term she is starting to look solid.

Back to trading it in the mean time for me.

Minus the $215 from tuna and will the $350m cash released off Waldorf not go against debt straight away? Plus whatever we pay off over the year? $6B is a little worrying for me if prices stay as they are?

So next year we are looking at a bumper fcf due to tax relief on North Sea production. I’m guessing the plan is the extra fcf from UK will deal with the $1B bridging loan?

Then when we take the $215 from tuna and $350m freed up off Waldorf deal, that leaves net debt at $3.8B then plus $1.7B bonds.

So next year we can expect a bumper fcf but will have a debt pile of around $5.5 B - whatever we pay off in that year.

Possibly debt at $5B?

Hi mr A,

Yep the bond situation is frightening. Obviously if we start to dump bonds there will be chaos and we will be hit hard aswell, but trump needs reminding it would be the end of the dollar imo.

Now starmer is looking to build relations with China trump is going to throw his toys out of the pram very soon.

This is what I mean when I say the reality of the world really is not reflected in Barcs share price. It’s pretty delusional to reality actually. The risk v reward here is now severely out of balance and actually an extremely high risk hold in my opinion.

But what do I know, I’ve been wrong so far.

I feel like those guys from the big short, they opened their shorts 2 years before the crash.

Anyway, I’m rambling.

GLA all.

There she goes! Barcs ignoring absolutely everything and rising off..well I’m not actually sure what it’s rising off anymore😂.

Well done all longs who have done very well here. Personally with an average of £4.60 on my short, I feel a lot more comfortable being short than I would being long. Just my amateur take.

Why would I be concerned when a deal is going to land any minute now?

If there’s no deal by March then I’ll start asking questions..

The only question I’m asking right now is why someone with apparently 1.7m shares spends 24/7 on here trying to talk the share price down?…

The only desperation I detect is yours,OTM.

It’s sarcasm,Dsrt.

Meaning Barcs has been rising regardless of anything all year.

For example if there is no shut down, Barcs will rise 5% like its good news. Buy backs absorb any bad news, but it’s unrealistic now. Barcs share price is delusional in comparison to the reality of the state of play.

The buy backs really kick in hard everytime this tags 4.80, coincidentally that’s the 20 day SMA acting as support as well. A close below could signal a reversal in trend. But as it stands it’s holding strong. This seems to be a real tipping point.

Forgive the rookie question, but what does $11 mscf average at in terms of therm pricing?

Don’t worry it will get pumped up.

Talks of a U.S. government shut down again over the U.S. shootings has to be a positive for Barcs…😂

So, we have banks chronically over bought, we have the US economy grinding to a halt. We have the U.S. isolating itself from Europe, we have Canada looking to trade more with China. We have Europe saying it wants to decouple from US dependency.

The U.S. has NOONE buying long term bonds because the world is waking up to the fact they are gangsters and cannot be trusted. We have US debt about to hit $39T and adding 10% a year with no bond selling to service it.

We have a push for 50 year mortgages to try and prop the housing market up, we have similar incentives here…

Nope, looks like a blue day for Barcs! Onwards and upwards, all is well in the world apparently.😂😂

You shoot anyone down for stating numbers like £500m which are backed up by numerous examples of lesser company’s, yet spout random numbers with absolutely zero evidence to back up your claims. You can’t even apply any reasoning to your claimed numbers because you haven’t got a clue.

OTM you talk out of your arse.. so you think a deal for £5-10m but have 1.7m shares apparently? 😂😂

And What rise would you be expecting of a deal like that?

And what do you base your £5-10m on?

Just picked a number out of a hat?