Member Info for romaron

Londoner 13.39 - Following major holders isn't an exact science. Morningstar have been wrong for months whilst the FT
have these (as of 2 Sept). https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=ENQ:LSE
They should mirror the EnQuest page, but they don't. Maybe if they updated on the same day but both are reliant on holders informing them. Suffice to say the top 3 holders have been remarkably patient and consistent. I imagine the other two have built up a relationship with the management by now.

O/T so you're a Spurs fan. I attended Jimmy Greaves first game. Mauricio Pochettino lives about 300 yards from me (far bigger house) and I have never seen him around. I'm not an avid fan but when pushed say Tottenham. The rugby is a bigger attraction for me. A pal still swears that we played against Glenn Hoddle in a Harlow Sunday league. We definitely played against his brother though. Where are you based now?

I forgot to add. Our highest ever rating was in March 2014, B1 outlook stable. In Dec 2014 we began the descent, B1 affirmed rating negative.

Hi ProdOpt, I liked the Sirius story but after a bruising encounter with Xcite I have stayed away from stocks with potential and dreams but a lack of cash. We had passed tilt with Kraken and couldn't stop. It will be a success story and all credit to the management for saving the company. I was out last night with two other EnQuest investors. Both ex investment banks working in structured debt. Each of us are frustrated by the undervaluation of EnQuest. A loose consensus was that debt is the reason. Debt is always the driver unless you have none. The analysts and funds have strict guidelines when running the slide rule over companies. They are almost stuck between tram-lines and are interconnected with credit rating agencies. These rules are rigid and it is painstaking to climb higher. We are still within Moody's rating "Highly speculative" and it was only in Nov 18 that we moved up to B2 from B3 CFR and the HY notes to B3 from Caa1. That meant the bonds moved one step from "Substantial risks" to "Highly speculative" so at least the CFR and bonds are together now rated in the same subset. A move to B1 would put us one step away from becoming "Non-investment grade speculative". I summed it up by saying that these priests of high finance aren't paid to think out of the box but preserve wealth.
And we think tankers move slowly!
I know someone who worked for Moody's and they said that as long as EnQuest are not "On watch" I should relax.

It's a challenge for sure and although I'm no engineer I do find this stuff fascinating. Sorry for anybody holding Sirius this morning and I thought "there but for the grace of God go EnQuest". Oil like any other business is always about money. I'm no longer concerned about our viability and happy to sit back and watch the company do what it says on the tin.

Be Lucky

ProdOpt's post made me go over some old stuff. I first invested in EnQuest because I was concerned about an investment I had in Xcite oil which meant I took a loss and exited. I lost a lot of money but saved a lot too. I had another contact (still have) whose brother is high up in BP and he wrote this in May 2015 post EnQ AGM.
"Mariner FDP was sanctioned by DECC in Feb 2013. There have been a series of contracts awarded to contractors for Mariner between October 2012 and Feb 2015. (totalling 16 so far). From what you write Neil McCulloch is saying the issue with Mariner and Bressay is that they’re not aligned with their economic requirements, which is an entirely different issue. That doesn’t actually mean they’re not making money, perhaps just not to the margins they want.

My brother, who works for BP wrote to me recently - "The field is Bentley which is a high viscosity crude. It could be challenging to produce at $60 but with estimated 250 million barrels one of the largest North Sea fields going.” His reference to $60 is the brent price. So you can see there is general skepticism in the industry at Xcite’s pricing.
API vs Centipoises
I started writing a reply on the MBB about this the other day but gave up. They are quite correct though. API is a measure of density. Oil API below 10 is denser than water, and above 10 is lighter than water. Whilst there is obviously a correlation between the heaviness of oil and it’s ability to flow, it’s not that straightforward. Centipoises (a division of poises, similar to centimetres and metres) is a measure of viscosity. This can get very technical, and is one of the reasons why my brother is as well paid at BP as he is. He’s their go to guy when they have issues anywhere in the world with this sort of stuff. (I read his PhD thesis once, it made no sense at all to me).
and this from the Canadian guy:
"The champagne reference is clearly a comparison between the bitumen that is mined or uses SAGD in Northern Alberta and Kracken oil. It resembles a plastic more than oil. I have gotten it on some downhole tools I was running when perforating gas wells. You can literally peel it off the tools with a knife in strips. But there are other fields in Alberta that have heavy oil cold production, like in the Lloydminster area where I live. Which I’m guessing is very similar oil to Bentley without the great reservoir characteristics that Bentley has. So making a comparison between bitumen and Kracken heavy oil is like comparing chalk and cheese.Was the gentlemen from Enquest saying that the oil in Kracken flows without AR(artificial lift)? I know nothing about Kracken but saying the oil flows out of the ground without the need for a pump is a little surprising. Or is he saying that SAGD or some other expensive method isn’t required? The gas pressure required to lift even a medium crude to surface without a pump is something that I haven’t seen. Typically flowing wells are very light oil. "

Love your posts ProdOpt. A couple of points that may or may not be relevant. Our oil is very similar to Captain with similar cp but a lower API (14 v 19-21). Mariner is split Maureen67 cp & Heimdal 508cp (Kraken 78-161cp).
Your reference to Canadian HO reminded me of an investor in Bentley who worked with Canadian 'Tar' and wasn't deterred and Jim Buckee who famously said that Kraken is like champagne compared to Canadian HO.
HO brings its own problems and they are clearly not insurmountable but have a cost. I like that you say some of the technology is mature but has limited exposure offshore. This means that it is clearly a consideration for Equinor (Mariner) and the likes of Schlumberger. There is a lot of money and other parties interested in solving what you rightly call a 'challenge'. With OGA banging head and encouraging collaboration I feel confident an economic solution will be found.

Hi E121 - your 17.50. I agree that this is good news for shale but not so sure of the reaction. It could be temporary and lenders might like the respite to get some money back or strengthen their position. The shalers will press to invest so there could be a face off imo. Many shalers are in the middle of chapter 11 and other restrictions so aren't necessarily masters of their own destiny. They are where we were a few years back and there are few quick solutions. They may not be in the best position to maximise advantage from the situation. We on the other hand are in a good position.

Good point E121. As a producer we can effectively "take a profit" by selling forward some oil. If you're HUR , RKH or a tiny producer then you are stymied and can only watch. It does look like the damage caused in Saudi won't be remedied quickly as intelligence about the damage will have reached those who pay for this kind of information and oil is up c.12 percent astthe mom.

I was being flippant but on a serious note this is the first time she has commented on oil. Meanwhile I'm running out of storage space for toilet rolls, kitchen paper and rice etc. (she's worrying about Brexit too).

My wife doesn't know about EnQuest (she thinks i'm watching porn). She has told me to fill my car up with petrol. The Saudi news is spreading.

....until they don't. I liked the following comment from the FT.

"The key point to remember about the commodity-oriented fund world is this: ever since Trump took over and started threatening Chinese trade wars, the “smart” money has become overly focused if not obsessed by the narrative that global demand will be hit by tariffs and a slowdown in trade. This has led to massively bearish sentiment in the oil futures market over the past year.
That may sound hyperbolic but we think it’s essential that someone bluntly states matters for what they are.
And herein lies the contrast between real-world markets and virtual gambling markets. In bitcoinland a 20 per cent move means nothing at all. In commodity markets, it’s a potential signifier that we’ve reached the point of no return in terms of conflict acceleration.
And yet, those obsessing about the impact of “trade wars” may have simply missed the wood for the trees. Specifically, that trade wars are irrelevant if there’s a chance the world will go to war.
The UK might be a basket case in many Brexit-related ways but the one thing it’s genuinely got over much of Europe is energy security (at least for as long as it’s got the Scots)."

take a long time to slow down. Changing direction also need a lot of energy and the wheel starts to turn; slowly at first but picking up speed before working to plan. We are speeding up again. Moving forward will AB build or buy? I'm going out on a limb now but I reckon AB knows more about EnQuest operations than some of the posters here.

Back in 2010 ish I made my first investment in PFG. At the time it was the most shorted stock in the FTSE. I built up a shareholding at under a tenner because there was little else giving such a return and it was a simple model by a company with serious experience and branding. I calculated that I knew as much about their workings as a hedge fund trader because they provided the funds to buy my school uniform ( I had a brother collecting for the Northampton Boot co a money lender and who here remembers Blundell's) The competition seems to be dropping off but I don't see the demand by sub-prime borrowers going away.
Albemarle & Bond went last week. Associated with Speedloans whoever they are. Wonga we all know about. A good signal was the RBC raising the price target of Amigo to 235p (closed Fri 73.70) whilst even NSF has its fans. I wouldn't touch either as I believe their models are flawed with guarantor lending. Who here hasn't had friction with friend and family lending?
The FCA don't make it easy but as investors we can sleep better knowing we aren't actual loan sharks. PFG looking more solid by the day.

The St. Leger is being run this Saturday.

It's an old stock market saying and it reflects a past era but there is an element of truth in it. Mainly because of the dog days of summer. The stock market was operated by the aristocratic and wealthy in the past who basically closed up for summer and enjoyed meeting up with other privileged people at sporting events like Ascot and Goodwood as owning a racehorse was also another way of showing off one's wealth. There are 5 classic races in the UK and the last one is the St. Leger. It gave rise to the saying: ""Sell in May and go away, and come on back on St. Leger's Day."

It's always interesting to see how quickly the summer ends and the leaves blow around you. it also indicates that people are now returning to work. We haven't really seen interesting volume with EnQuest for some time.

I was having a drink with a pal who makes his living (now) out of supplying “institutional level market intelligence” in FX. As the evening progressed the chat moved into “old school” traders before algorithms took over. Apparently a few of these dinosaurs (aged over 50) had survived the frequent culls and had even been at his last bank. He told me this amusing anecdote. He was doing research and newsletters and sat in the dealing Room along with traders and sales. Most days were the same. Traders hiding trades from the sales desk and everybody trying to find out what the big hedge funds were up to that day.
Then mid-morning the Swiss removed the peg of 1.20 Swiss francs per euro on 15 Jan 2015.
Chaos ensued. Enormous amounts of screaming and shouting (think chickens without heads) and everybody trying to pounce on a wrong price quote or even just get a price.
When the dust settled heroic battle stories were recounted. There were also complaints. Smaller banks complained that my pal’s bank hadn’t fulfilled a responsible role and was often not quoting and out of the fray. Image is everything and there was a mini-enquiry. Mostly it revolved around electronic prices, frozen screens and not honouring a price (cardinal sin in FX). The two dinosaurs were now having to defend themselves. One was for not supporting an offer at 0.92 along with not feeding prices into the electronic widget. This came from a European bank that makes its money from running a platform for small investors/traders. The two traders basically answered that small amounts were of little concern to them and they had quoted non-stop for several hours. Rather than being questioned they should have been awarded battlefield medals. They proved that at the time they were in fact buyers at 0.94 so a 0.92 offer would have helped them but the screens were unreliable. Perhaps they could have informed colleagues that it was a wrong price by tapping on the window with a sponge? Only a cynic (cough) would suggest they were aware the price was misleading. The real killer though was the answer to the complaint that the traders were unavailable electronically. The traders replied that other banks and traders used the telephone and got through and were quoted. In fact common sense says that of course they wanted access to clients and would not have gone AWOL. In a busy market a simultaneous mine/yours is magic and panicking traders are meat and veg to an experienced trader. Imagine youngsters not knowing how to use a landline? You can also snipe electronically but as far as I know algorithms can’t use a phone either.

*the two veteran (past it) traders made their annual bonus by lunchtime.

There are a lot of reasons for the professionals sitting on your hands in these markets and the St. Leger hasn't been run yet so a lot of smaller punters are having a bigger effect than normal. They move funds around as they chase the latest action. It means that with their limited funds they have to sell something to place a punt; maybe a few hold EnQuest?
Today Hurricane volume was 20 times the EnQuest volume. Just saying.

Hi BTFATH1 20.46 - I respect your post and 12,000 plus posts mean you're not a troublemaker under a new guise. I did 27 years of day trading in Forex (you get less for murder) and have a basic low opinion of some day traders for the following reasons.
1. You need L2 and to be in constant touch with the market.
2. You need icy discipline.
3. You need an edge (bit like banker in blackjack).
4. You need to go home with a fairly flat book to avoid overnight large movements.
The last point means you run the risk of picking up halfpennies in front of a steamroller. However, as you say, if it is easy money why turn it down. I could day trade but the rewards don't compensate for the freedom I have (I'm retired). Most likely I'd get distracted and fail P.2. I certainly don't have P.3 but did when I traded FX. Not always but often enough. I wouldn't chain myself to a computer for £200 a week. Go much higher and it starts to become more of a job more than a hobby. I will say that there are some people who adapt well to day trading but they are a minority. You get large noisy crowds at race meetings but the only regular winners are the bookies. Many here are trying to build a nest egg and some like me run their own SIPP (I still have Fundsmith though). I have nothing against shorters but I don't like gloaters or boasters on either side. Once I think they're just promoting their position or tr*lling then I have little interest in them and move them to Filter. Let them talk to the ether about their ability to trade tops and bottoms. There are some good researchers on this BB and I hope you hang around. There is a nucleus of genuine investors on this BB some of whom I've had the pleasure of meeting. They bring valuable insight and alternate views.
If it's quiet tonight I will post an amusing story which is kinda relevant.

Be Lucky

It is ridiculous that we contribute to a title like 'Down again'. I did and now regret it. Prices always move and if they bother you that much on a daily basis then maybe investing isn't for you. Of course day-traders, fluffers and shorters like a bit of background noise as they punt their exaggerated amounts. Perhaps I suffer from confirmation bias but as expected this was started by someone on my Filter list. I don't claim prescience but my Filter list awfully accurate. They are a mixture of makebates and billy-liars. Some might even be shareholders but doubtful.

*EnQuest is down 1% today. Don't slash your wrists.

It's not a Trump announcement. OPEC cuts oil demand forecast for 2020. Reuters