Member Info for romaron

“Both optimists and pessimists contribute to the society. The optimist invents the aeroplane; the pessimist, the parachute.” — George Bernard Shaw
“An optimist is a person who sees a green light everywhere, while a pessimist sees only the red stoplight … the truly wise person is colorblind.” – Albert Schweitzer
Both great men but I think Schweitzer's performance in The Terminator edged it.

I'm going with you two. “The optimist sees the donut, the pessimist sees the hole.” ? Oscar Wilde

Who to believe?
“the shale industry, weighed down by debt, lack of profits and increased investor scrutiny.” Epiphany 121
or
“the US has cleanest water in the world. The world wants to punish US producers and enrich foreign polluters – Paris Accord promoters are blinded by ideology and want to enrich the people of Paris – New York won’t allow pipelines or fracking, idiots – drilling permits up 300% in this administration - US No. 1 by far and ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia – A new world of US DOMINANCE in energy”
Yesterday – Donald Trump - Shale Insight Conference, Pittsburgh

The US is different to many other countries in that a lot of natural resources belong people and not the Government. Trump would love to breach federal land protections and also boasted that impact assessments are now down to a year instead of four years or longer. Listening to his diatribe yesterday (that’s an hour I won’t get back) I imagined SA and Russia listening with a wry smile. The truth is always grey in oil but to boast of making an already rich country richer will feed into US hegemony fears and its greed as seen by poorer countries. Trump is a bully that has the backing of the biggest gang, the US military. There will be a reaction and one might be SA buying weapons from Russia. An aircraft carrier is mighty potent when facing Somalia but another country with BrahMos anti-ship missiles is a different story. Economic retaliation could be to buy weapons elsewhere and the thinly masked mercenary element of the US will be replaced by (Trump would love this) CHEAPER mercenaries. The demagoguery of Trump is frightening and his double edged threats (military and economic) will force the rest of the world to make alternative arrangements. Make no mistake, the US was unpopular before Trump. He may already have taken it past tipping point. As an aside I was wondering about the decommissioning of shale works. The planet is quite forgiving over centuries but the near term effects are very damaging. A bit like bleaching and scouring the seabed!

Buy oil (not shale).

It's a Shale Insight Conference. The world will be watching the stable genius.

Would this have anything to do with it?

President Trump is scheduled to speak in Pittsburgh at 3:40 p.m ET

The markets are pretty dull at the moment so this incident will hopefully be an attention gatherer. EnQuest aren't hiding anything and there are upwards of 115 people from the rig who know the score and that will spread exponentially. As they say "it's an ill wind that blows nobody any good". The hidden gem that is EnQuest will be getting exposure and reassessment.

there is no RNS. That will frustrate the people who are trying to make this bigger than it is and will underscore that it doesn't threaten the production forecast. The Union guy did his best but he is no Bob Crow and he would have been fed info from his members. We will get more scrutiny and media coverage which could warm up nicely towards the CMD on 21st November. Lets see how good IR and thew company are at handling the narrative from this unexpected attention!

.....and as Londoner often says "sh*t happens" and that applies whether you're Shell or BP too. I met a deep sea diver on a skiing holiday. I said it must be a dangerous occupation. He disagreed - he said that operating a rig is so expensive that at the first warning protocols come into play because every day's delay can run into millions. Obviously decommissioning is cheaper than a producing rig but lives keep the same value.

Thanks for the clarification Pelle. It's epiphany's fault - he should be at work and increasing his carbon footprint rather than answering my whimsy. One thing the three of us agree on is that a healthy company throwing off cash will never be ignored whatever business it's in. And that is where we're heading!

Are you mixing up E with P? - Not sure what you mean but I take the holistic approach and each has its influence and importance. We're not popular and it is for a variety of reasons. We are at the weaker end of the spectrum so even AB growing a beard might adversely affect the price. If the E & P refer to Exploration and Production then the only way to increase reserves is too Explore (or EOR) which is what we are doing with SeaPulse. The company is actually increasing success rates by exploring in and near its own fields. Add that to an innovative arrangement and we might well see other companies following our lead.

Hi Pelle, I'm not even sure it is the debt levels. There is almost a total freeze on oil investments at present and it is across the board. It is even more worrying if you're in shale. I'd be more worried if other oil companies were climbing rapidly. There is little kudos in an analyst or pundit promoting an oil investment at present so unless there is new news we'll drift. Obviously the POO has an effect too which isn't one company specific.

I'm gonna be controversial here but I reckon AB knows more than any of us.

but they will arrive. It's a chilling statistic but as of about a year ago, almost, 1,000 institutions with $6.2 trillion in assets had committed to dump fossil fuels (Arabella Advisors). Huge buybacks and dividends of 6% plus have failed to reignite Shell and BP. The fossil fuel industries are villified and demonised. Throw in the Woodford factor and it helps explain where we are.
I mention Woodford because he has been so prolific that he affects almost everyone here. It is soon forgotten that he had his successes. Shunning dotcoms before the first bust, selling out of banks before the financial crisis, piling into pharmaceuticals when others fretted over patent-cliffs and buying tobacco shares when they were shunned. The last two are important. Pharmas illuminate the herd behaviour of analysts and boards whilst tobacco proceeded oil and is even more vilified than oil yet has been an outstanding investment over the years. Tobacco’s USP is that it is a legal drug which is highly addictive and damaging to health. It is though not essential to life whilst you could argue that energy is. Global consumption is 80% fossil fuels and they are cheap against renewables. Electricity is 3/4 times as expensive as gas.
We’ve seen what happens when fuel prices rise in the UK. Strikes are almost immediate. Extinction Rebellion are tolerated by us but see what happened when they tried to stop blue-collar workers getting to work in East London recently. The rich West can afford to indulge in fanciful behaviour to assuage their guilt but will still want the cars and foreign holidays. The rest of the World doesn’t have this option. I’d like to see how far ER would get in India, China or Africa or resistance in the UK to huge price rises for replacement energy.
The world will not dispense with fossil fuels quickly and as long as the oil price holds we will receive a double whammy. The cash returns will mean that institutions with a more prosaic approach to income will replace those that are run on public sentiment and left. There will be a shortage of oil and oil companies because of the lack of investment over the past few years.
Finally, The Middle East remains close to a war that would threaten world oil supplies.

Hi Therapist - In short we're on probation after the collapse in oil prices (we were innocent) and the market proving its aversion to anything negative or costing money means that every smart-arse would accuse AB and his team of being reckless as exploration isn't cheap.
I won't need a stab vest as anonymous posters who get vicarious pleasure from real people trying to understand their investments will never approach me. The simplest post is to write in either a negative vein or as a Pollyanna. They are like vampires and shrivel in daylight.
I enjoy your posts - very amusing.

Hi Therapist -a novel concept on this message board "It's o.k. To ask questions it's a forum isn't it!!"
This forum is usually a vehicle to show off ones limited knowledge and spread half-truths or outright lies. Most posters prefer to preach and own the narrative which means you're unlikely to get much of a response. This isn't what you asked for but a view from me.
I think that allowing Seapulse access to fields or licenses you own is a bit like a farmer allowing detectorists to look for treasure in a field and borrow the tractor if it's not being used. The company has had to keep exploration pretty low-key as they describe themselves as a production and development company whilst costs of exploration frightens the horses (creditors). I don't even know if it is put in the capex or opex column but something has to be done to replenish reserves! I think it is something we've got up our sleeve and an efficient and cheap way to explore because the best place to find oil is in an oil field (Neil McCulloch). I can understand why they wouldn't promote this as it would have little impact but wouldn't it be a nice surprise if they found some treasure. A win, win for both companies.

Hi colebrooke - A CMD is more targeted than the Investor meetings in July. Some CMD's even involve a tour of the assets (FPSO?). I doubt this is specifically to address future finance as we still have some time protection. In fact slide 9 of the IM has the Bonds maturing in 2023 although the original date was 2022 and can be extended at our option. As you know I think these give a poor signal together with the PIK. The OZ loan is another poor advert and reminds investors and credit providers that we were once dealing with death spiral financiers. The hybrid factoring (OZ) with a charge on production was a result of the farm out failure of Kraken. I'm hoping that one of the reasons for the CMD is that the company is now throwing off cash and it is time to remove the stabilisers.
Today's Sunday Times mentions Neil Woodford investments several times and reinforces the dangers of investing in illiquid stocks. With our recent problems it is now time to educate and publicise that we are through our travails which is what the CMD will prove. We are owed no favours by the rating agencies or Institutions and it is up to us to present a compelling financial reason to invest in EnQuest.
We have a team that is no longer defensive with a new Chairman. I'm very hopeful.

Interesting read Pelle. I'm not so hot on micro stuff and was unaware of just how high freight rates have gone until hitman warned me yesterday. I wonder if high stocks are a result of the shortage of capacity as ships are laid up. It is a double whammy to US frackers as their creditors are knocking on the door and they have no option, whatever the price, to keep producing as fast as they can to pay debt installments. I wonder what the appetite for new investment for shale will be like in the future? Sure they'll want to carry on but will the lenders be there? The rate of interest is irrelevant if you lose your capital!
Might be an interesting discussion on how much EnQuest are paying for shipping at mom. It won't be pretty. In summary - shale is still producing like mad to pay debts whilst there are bottlenecks stopping them exporting it. I somehow don't expect OPEC plus will come to their rescue.

typo. aren't having it too good. Forgot to add. Management often buyback when they think their shares are undervalued and they are best investment around. On this AB and BP are in alignment.

Oops. It is relatively easy to manipulate news and there is a credulous base that will even follow courses and individuals that will harm them e.g. Brexit No Deal and a Trump kleptocracy that lowers taxes for billionaires. The attack on oil and oil companies is relentless but like everything will eventually subside when a new narrative is in town. I wandered across to sanity and checked our closest super Major, B.P. They are if anything taking a bigger battering than EnQuest. This month alone they have bought on 7 working days 53mio shares (around £260mio) and have been buying back shares for over a year and the price still resists upward motion. They have had a terrible year stockwise yet are A rated with a strong demand for their debt. Oh to be in their shoes (or not, careful what you wish for). I wonder where they would be without the buyback programme?

*I spoke to an executive at BP who didn't want to be quoted on the record. He blamed it all on EnQuest and was particularly scathing about AB. I didn't tip him even though he cleaned my windscreen. Shell and Tullow aren't having it to good either but I don't have any insider contacts there.

The financial world is suffering a deluge of bad news. Trade wars and a high risk of real wars in the troubled Middle East. A non-stop barrage of publicity largely in support of reducing or banning fossil fuels. It is relaT