RE: Putin15 Oct 2019 16:22
Just got back from Wood Green (ah, the sweet smell of cannabis at 10 a.m.) and whilst in the area checked up on an investment of mine, Primani (AB Foods). Picked up a gilet for a tenner but had to queue for 10 minutes. Could have avoided the queue in M&S but spent 4 times as much or maybe Burberry for £450. Never ceases to amaze me the prices at Primark and the quality is fine. How do others get away with their pricing? Got me thinking about oil. Costs in Russia and Saudi Arabia are below $10 to produce. Commodities are famously abundant and their price is on a continuing downward trajectory apart from engineered shortages, wars and other events. So why invest at all in oil when Extinction Rebellion say we've got only 5-10 years left for life on the planet anyway.
ER will still want protection and ability to travel. We can't all exist with a bivouac and an allotment [I realise that there are tribes in Africa that do]. Carbon is still economically far, far ahead of renewables and plenty of countries in the r.o.w. want what we've had. Then there is the fact that other people want what you've got. Russia can look after itself and is often the aggressor anyway. The US has rapidly lost interest in the ME since fracking and supports SA more for financial reasons and weapon sales. The thought that they (the Saudi's) might have to move their military command centre from The Dorchester, Park Lane to somewhere nearer fills them with trepidation. Iran is another who can look after itself and can genuinely say that they are victimised or singled out by sanctions.
If oil was worthless (or very low value) then how do you explain the success of the majors and N.O.Cs. Then there are strategic interests and the elephant in the room that is China. The current stasis has a lot of other possibilities but we know that the world (apparently) is never short of oil yet all countries have strategic reserves, why? The players in world oil have very long time scales whilst the House of Saud relies on playing off its suitors with what was once a bottomless treasury. The stakes have never been higher imo. The House of Saud is an anachronism which is medieval and corrupt (Imagine us calling England, Windsorland?) whilst survival in its present form is unlikley. No wonder oil makes countries nervous.
*And some people here post about half a penny movements of an illiquid stock! We are in the same Universe as BP and Tullow and they aren't behaving like they're the next Amazon. EnQuest is a well run company making good profits. Like their CEO I cannot see the future but I'm speculating that unpopular as oil is it will still be around in 30 years.
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