Member Info for romaron

HMH - It was a 5 minute piece presented by the highly respected Business Editor of the BBC, Faisal Islam. The 6 refineries in the UK will be uneconomic with a 5% tariff on exports to EU. The Govt. in its wisdom has granted a 0% tariff on fuel imports to stop us freezing this winter and being able to drive to the shops. Unlike other sectors e.g. farming, ceramics which will have protective tariffs. This will mean that according to WTO rules we must now offer 0 tariff to the rest of the world. Russia is the biggest, nearest and cheapest alternative source so that will make our (other) industries competitive because the Russians are to be trusted and there is no need for strategic concerns. Unfortunately it will be the end of the refineries. They will immediately lose their market in Ireland for economic reasons. Councils throughout the UK are bunkering fuel with Scotland and wales being particularly concerned.

Still we've got our sovereignty back which means we can now do exactly what we could before but without EU interference. I fail to see the difference but am reliably told by Brexiteers that there'll be more white faces and less funny talk. Increased costs are worth it and it will revive the old 'blitz' spirit (apparently).

*I have a pal in Ireland who buys his domestic fuel in Northern Ireland where it is hugely cheaper. The fines are also high and transit vans riding on their axles might indicate a bowser inside. I have no idea how this will turn out. At my age cliff diving isn't advisable.

Hi HMH - it was the BBC 6 O'clock news and that isn't the same as BBC World Service or even the internet outlet thingies. It will probably be picked up on other programs so not sure what links will work. Some context - Brexit is appearing a total disaster as the country chooses to leap off a cliff. The media are naturally all over it and depending on whose being interviewed they prefer extremes and catchy headlines. One thing the BBC does do though is always try for balance and you'll often get somebody to contradict the previous interviewee in the same segment. It will be repeated on several programs and I expect somebody else will also spot it. I wouldn't worry too much though as we are also likely to be without food, medicine stc. but at least you pesky foreigners won't be able to share our misery. If I find more I'll post a link but I'm not sure iplayer works abroad.

*abroad is anywhere they speak funny.

Dol03 - on BBC news just now. Brexit causing potential fuel shortage, especially in the South East and the viability of refineries long term in doubt. I have no idea how it might affect EnQuest but I am a tad nervous. We export oil as far as I know and if we have problems importing it then it seems pretty likely that we'll have problems exporting it. Brexit - going forward to a better yesterday.

*some rotten bugger stole my anti-depression tablets. I hope it makes them happy!

Hi Londoner - you wrote "It may be that we (or at least I) are trying to be too clever in unravelling it." That may be true but all credit to you for delving into the accounting records. If this was a forum for classic cars you'd be a "petrol head" - I don't know what the equivalent is for fans of company accounting. Something similar was brought up at the AGM and swiftly and concisely answered. It obviously went over my head but as with the Titanic I doubt discussing the polish used on the handrail will matter in the long run. E121 was there and may remember the details. We have audited accounts and I am not particularly worried. Sometimes it's a bit like the London Umbrella Company investing in superior spring and fabric technology and a 6 month drought comes along. I'd expect opex/capex to be up and sales down with LUC. A lengthy low pressure period and I'd expect the opposite. The Directors at LUC had mixed results in forecasting rainfall according to my research.

*I once asked JS about decommissioning accounting at an AGM. He took time out to trawl through a huge computer runout to make sure his answer was correct. They aren't hiding anything imo and as long as it isn't sensitive commercial data you want then I wish more would approach IR.

I don't disagree HIS and being a very private, private equity model does have certain advantages. I've said before that we're here at the gift of the creditors/large shareholders and today has not changed my mind one bit. It does seem to indicate that they're dressing Avanti up to be more attractive [for sale] and give the management an opportunity to be decisive and bold. I cannot really think of a reason to stay on AIM.

"Due to the conflict of interest presented by their position as representatives of Solus, BlackRock and Great Elm on the Board respectively, neither Craig Chobor, Michael Leitner nor Adam Kleinman participated in the Board's consideration of the proposed Cancellation."
But those voting would be well aware of the view of these 3 Directors and the decision was a foregone conclusion.
Like several here I wrote these off some time ago and the initial collapse today was due a lot to the fact that these shares are basically lock-up paper once we leave AIM (unless you sell them now for a pittance). That is not the same as worthless but you're in the same ball-park from certain view points. The problem for me is that these 3 companies control a high percentage of the remaining debt. If they wipe out remaining shareholders they can harm themselves or open up the litigation route. If nothing else we are in good company because these creditors also paid a high price for the equity. If there is any future value in the equity it will be because of the self-interest of these companies.
Today's news hasn't changed anything really IMV and is more an acceptance of where we are. The Creditors don't really want to run companies and Avanti will be nursed along until it can be sold. Whether there will be anything left for shareholders remains to be seen. They would rather see the back of us but we are (for now) inextricably connected to each other with the creditors holding a lot more share than us. To flush us away for good they need to relinquish their shareholding too. Maybe they can roll it into the remaining debt but that is far above my pay-grade?

Pelle - I read that humour is not a laughing matter in Sweden.

*I may have got it wrong. It could be Germany but it was definitely a country we have had disagreements in the past with.

E121 - Retail sale in the US. I don't follow them (except for Costco and Liberty media (QVC) which I hold) but I read that there is 4 times as much retail space per US citizen as here. Reading across what does that mean? UK retail is oversold? The US has a lot further to fall? I did read that there are companies in the US buying shopping malls and turning them over to offices, housing and warehousing. There's a profit in there somewhere but I'll be damned if I know where. Retail is as complicated and about as popular as oil it seems.

Eminent posts make great men greater, and little men less. -Jean de La Bruyere, essayist and moralist (16 Aug 1645-1696)

I liken Trump to (say) a Robert Mugabe who lived for the splendour and obeisance that comes with the role. He is more bloated than even our most profligate Royal. He is unaware and without filter. Ignorant and incompetent. It's like saying Al Capone was a great business man. If you pay no taxes and steal regularly then almost anybody can make a fortune. He is skilful in that he has used bluff and bankruptcy all his life. His chutzpah in use of legal procedure when he is basically a criminal and a habitual liar is beyond belief. The US will take a long time to restore its stature in the world.
The world keeps turning and in the scheme of things Trump is a mere blimp on history. Recessions are like weather and come around regularly. It's likely that a downturn was on the cards whoever was the US President.

Hi HMH - I don't disagree with your post except to say that unfortunately the West runs the narrative and has most of the greenbacks. The "green" movement allied with recessionary fears makes oil currently a pariah to the fund managers. Where we might disagree is that I don't have a lot of faith in the independence and long terminism of those that do control the price. Some people dress it up as "trend" but you can equally describe it as "herd mentality". There is supposedly safety in being part of a herd. The fund managers prefer safety. The biggest worry is recession fears at present which would crater oil demand.

Error - I was referring to the volcano Krakatoa in my last post. I have Kraken on the brain.

HMH 18.43 "Good times ahead. This company is not the same as 18 month ago, when the production averaged 37kboepd. Numbers will set this straight, give it some time."

But the world is different from 18 months ago so the comparison fails. EnQuest is not alone and the incessant bleating of the environmental lobby has to be accorded some notice by the politicians and those who are also finely attuned to the public, often self appointed, watch dogs (e.g. Greta Thunberg). They are the Funds, Institutions and their managers who get judged by quartile positions etc.. as well as the Majors. The politicians meanwhile weigh up which side of the argument carries most votes.
The old saying that nobody ever got sacked for being long of IBM could be modernised by saying you would never be sacked for being short of fossil fuels. There is a herd impact here and a lot of hypocrisy involved in this stance. In the UK they all still want a piece of BP and Shell for dividend purposes and Shell & BP play the game by promoting green initiatives. The hypocrisy is that they still earn huge sums from conventional oil and the cost of the initiatives is often unacceptable (bibi Orangutans).
The Norwegian Oil Pension fund declares its moving away from oil but the devil is in the detail. They make token disposals or don't buy peripheral oil producers and even change Statoil to Equinor to lose the "oil" in the name. Of course it is easier to be "green" if you are rich. Saying that, supporting high prices at the petrol station or banning flights would ensure no government would ever get elected.
Not trying n to start you off HMH but a lot of this stuff comes from your egalitarian neck of the woods.

*I am agnostic when it comes to climate change and whilst we damage the planet with litter & plastic I don't accept it as conclusive fact that we are the sole cause. Natural events can change the weather much more quickly and effectively. I recently read a book about Kraken (the volcano) and it was only in the 1960's that it became accepted that tectonic plates were the cause and volcanoes sprout along the fault lines. We've had the ice age and hippos strolling around in England and maybe both might return at some stage. If it comes to a war or being economically competitive then oil has a place for decades to come.
Tokenism is rife and if your job depended on stock picking then oil is only for the more adventurous or contrarian investor. Fundamentals will eventually kick in even if only to make us an income stock where it will be impossible for the market to ignore us.

Build it and they will come (eventually).

Hi E121 - I found HMHn a refreshing change to some of the other PC stuff on here or the clumsy attempts by some other posters who pretend to be holders. If the 60p party ever happens I'd be more than happy to be in the corner with HMH. I like strong opinions and challenging statements. It did make the board a bit more interesting for a while.

Still the dog days of summer so we can only chew over the existing info which is now looking rather mangled and flavourless. Not long until the update.

Be lucky.

I haven't enjoyed this board so much in the last few days since HMHn came aboard. He has even managed to upset a couple of the most balanced and urbane posters on here (E121 and Londoner7) which is an achievement in itself. I can't help but agree with some of his comments about some posters here and hope he is as good at taking it as he is dishing it out.
I did think this was a bit unfair E121 "HMHn is a self-proclaimed ranging (sic)drunk." Many of my friends would fall into that category but usually have something interesting to say and it does suggest a bit of passion. I hope he stays around. I'll be interested in his comments when we move away from the obsession with discussing contract details and current production.

I owe Moffa an apology. On 1st August I said that EnQuest were not an E & P company. Before posting I checked the website enquest.com and there it is loud and clear. "Independent production and development company."
However, when revisiting the Investor meetings July 2019 slides (thanks Pelle) there is on Page 1 this: " A production and development led E&P business"
Subtle and the first time I have noticed Exploration being promoted (doesn't mean it is the first time as I am not renowned as a master of detail). I am very pleased to see this as it indicates to me that they are confident enough and have the capital to move into an area with higher risk. A P&D led E&P company is a bit of a mouthful and it suggests to me that they are going to explore our existing portfolio first on the basis that the best place to find oil is in an oil field. On the other hand I notice it described it as a "pact" with Seapulse in a few releases and the partnership of Seapulse with Maersk suggests they are a serious company. This could mean they have other ideas but whatever way you look at it AB wants to increase the reserves. The turmoil in oil over the past years has thrown up opportunities and the company is not sitting on its hands.

Hi 6ssk - back in 2015 IPF which were spun out of PFG went through a share buying plan around the price we are today. IPF basically held their ground but other factors came into play (Poland regulatory Dec 2016) and they are where they are today. Banks and Institutions that trade these companies like some factors to be steady among a bunch of variables. The stock overhang with Woodford is a "known" factor, like the IPF buy back was, rather than a variable. My point is that concentrating on a "known" factor can be dangerous as other events play out. I'm not talking 'Black Swan' necessarily but (for example) Woodford doing a deal to sell all his PFG holding to another holder or entrant. If the threat of an overhang of stock was removed we would climb dramatically. These are the dog days of summer and there is only desultory trading unless somebody in the US starts tweeting. I'm not overexcited by today's Schroder RNS as it is probably too technical for those of us on the outside.

Just thinking. The effect of an overhang of stock created by the pressures on Woodford funds works as the exact opposite of a share buy back scheme. They can go wrong too.

HMHn - looking forward to it. Do we have to make an allowance for your moods in late winter when it is dark most of the time and you find solace in Aquavit?

Welcome Oinkston - I was gonna do my little Englander bit and use the term "invasion" but as I already have Scandinavian genes it is a bit late. You will find this place a sanctuary with judicious use of the Filter. If you have fled I'm afraid they will probably find this board and we do already have a mild infestation (as do all boards). Some are just harmless fantasists with imaginary hindsight deals who just want to be admired by other anonymous individuals. Others more sinister or just sad.
The past few days my screen has shown a lot more green (filtered) posts as thetrolls (a Scandinavian word?) are far more active when the price is falling and many, whilst pretending to be holders, are ecstatically happy to be able to throw accusations against the management.
I have done some research introlling and came across this which I feel has some relevance.
"The sea squirt starts life boring, and gets more so, but along the way it does one thing that is very interesting indeed. In its larval stage this creature swims around the rock pool, its tail propelling it much like a tadpole's. Its talents at this time are not impressive, being limited largely to staying upright and hiding from predators. At least it moves, though. When adulthood approaches that changes. It sticks itself to a rock, where it will stay fixed for the rest of its life. And the first thing it does upon finding a suitable site, the one interesting act in its life? It consumes its brain."

Be lucky

At the weekend there was an article in the Sunday Times giving the Woodford's fund top 10 holdings before and after his travails. In the latest top 10 sits PFG who weren't there before (sorry paper in bin). At the time I suspected that it wasn't an endorsement that he was now investing in dividend stocks as the article suggested but just an unavoidable positioning of his remaining holding. I doubt he has given up on PFG but when you're short of funds you sometimes have to sell assets you'd rather hold. That is by the by for the average investor who doesn't like it but tends to stick by decisions whereas the professionals who have to report to bosses and get judged in performance quartiles are much more reactive and move with the (professional) herd. I've been here before and not alarmed. It is hardly rocket science that Woodford is under pressure and more likely to sell further stock in PFG. I checked out NSF and Amigo who I wouldn't touch with the proverbial and they are if anything too high imo but looking weak also. The sector is pretty much unloved at the moment but borrowers with a poor credit history haven't disappeared. We'll turn the corner eventually. The building bricks have been laid.