Member Info for romaron

Hi Londoner - I value your contributions and the detail. Some people know how a car works whilst others (like me) just turn the key. However, when I buy a new car I read what the experts say but that isn''t every week or year. I believe you are a holder whilst those I filter are not. I have other holdings too and EnQuest is one of the riskier ones but expect (hope) that it will spice up the portfolio with a large increase. Many on BBs throw around amounts like $1.7bn and $100mio which are huge amounts and explains why the company gets the attention and rating it does. From an analysts point of view they have called it right the past years. We can make a stab at the macro but I'd say our opinions are often as good as the experts. What gives me strength is that I know they won't touch EnQuest until they see the money and I'm sure the management are well aware of this fact too. The worrying thing at the moment is demand and one thing I'm sure we can agree on is that the market runs for cover when countries rattle their sabres, whether militarily or economically. Analysts and fund managers have to stay with the herd and that is dictated by the world economic powers. The US is playing a dangerous game and there will be unexpected consequences for sure. Holding oil stocks at present is certainly contrarian.

Be Lucky

Hi Londoner - I wouldn't worry too much about Magnus because the information (I have it in writing) that the recent Kraken outage was treated as not proprietary information as nothing has happened that changed the views or guidance which kinda feeds into what you say about other information the market professionals can access and even four-ale chat can very occasionally be revealing. It also means that if Magnus was a serious problem and could affect the guidance then we would have received an RNS. You can't have it both ways. Your work on the lease is admirable but it won't change anything. The contracts are drawn up and parties are liable. The skill is in forming the contract. AB does not give out commercially sensitive information and this is not unusual in these deals. It is only if they ever get to court that the juicy stuff is revealed.

*O/T I was interested in the Sirius development today and the impact of debt there. I wonder if we had failed on the funding front a few years back whether the Kraken field would have ever produced? A company can be extremely well run but events out of their control can take over which goes back to my comment on polishing hand rails when you should be looking for icebergs - a world recession is an iceberg and it doesn't matter how good your management is - at those times expediency takes over but it is still a combination of luck and professionalism that gets you through. I think that few major fields will reach development in the NS as the risk and availability of capital is perceived too high. The stakes were/are very high in developing Kraken and the rewards will be commensurate. I think we are well past the worst.

Osaka, pointless wasting the effort to analyse the motives of other posters. If I have a suspicion I just use the Filter. I'm not (clearly) a trained accountant but happy to rely on the workings of E121 and hitman who are genuine holders. Pelle (Swedish guy) is inquisitive too and has a good understanding. I have no doubt that AB and Jonathan Swinney do their best as do most boards and executives. Few intentionally try to lose or cheat their shareholder's and fill their own pocket.
There is little we can do about Bumi, hedging or the Oz loan for example but listening to people using hindsight to suggest they could do better is harmless showing off. It doesn't impress anybody. I expect Exxon Mobile employ experts but took a bath on hedging in their last quarter and they can afford Nostradamus.
I have faith in the stewardship of EnQuest but if others wish to call it idolatry that is their choice. A bulletin board is very much a four-ale bar and the level of input and opinionated discourse is what you should expect in the bar room. A lot of it is rubbish but it does help fill in the gaps between updates or RNSable news.

Be Lucky

The sub-editor has to make you read the article and beating a quarterly forecast doesn't necessarily mean the situation is tickety-boo. You can also read into it that there is a requirement to run faster to stand still when it comes to shale. The title doesn't actually reflect what was reported imo. Maybe a surge but no breakdown on where the profits came from exactly.
Chevron - production and profit up but revenue down.
Exxon - production up, profit down and revenue down (earlier typo should read $69.1bn down from $73.5bn last year).
Both could cover a multitude of sins.

I'll just blame the sub-editor and clumsy, space filling reporting.

Really, a headline to an article in today's Times. Exxon and Chevron both beat Q2 forecasts. Chevron Permian production soared to the equivalent of 421,000 bopd, up by a half from Q2 18. Exxon says its Permian production up by 20% compared to Q1 and up by 90% compared to Q2 18.
Exxon global prod. 3.9m bpd Q2 compared to 3.6m Q2 18. Q2 profit $3.1bn down from $4bn previous year. Revenue $69.1bn down from $42.2bn.
Chevron global prod. up to 3.1m bpd compared to 2.8m bpd a year earlier. Q2 profit $4.3bn against $3.4bn previous year. Revenue $38.9 bn down from $42.2bn.
Chevron share down 1.5% Exxon down 1.2% in both cases hit by announcement of Trump China tariffs.

Baffled, Barnet.

We're doing better than the FTSE 100 today!

Hi 6ssk - your 09.03 second half explains a lot about PFG. I've held these on and off since 2011 when they were (at that time) the most shorted stock in the FTSE. Before his exit I believe that the ex CEO Peter Crook was belatedly trying to appease the FCA and changed the "agent" collection system and instigated the recording for new loans/customers. This led to a flood of agents to NSF who weren't happy at being informed that they didn't run the company and they left for greener fields where they set the terms of engagement. PFG are the largest and setting the standards. Those companies resisting run the risk of a rogue agent costing a company millions or even its license. I am surprised at how well NSF have stood up and a lot is down to cutting corners imo. The NSF went for the short term expediency route and will be found out imo. PFG are well placed in an environment where regulatory controls dictate and have taken the pain of restructuring earlier than their competition. I'm happy to hold.

*The shares of PFG still have a few reportable shorts (Canada Pension 0.71 & Lansdowne 1.71). I have ignored Lansdowne as they have been short since Nov 2012 and I suspect it is a leg of an arbitrage trade or a hedge.

The Art of the Deal versus the Art of War by Sun Tzu. Which advice do you think the Chinese are following?

The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” ...
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. ...
“Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.”

It's a mismatch.

Hi Moffa - It was a light hearted comment on the quarterly movements in majors which are analysed to death and invested in by millions. The pundits still fail to get it right. I also threw in how hard it is to predict oil prices with the hedging loss.

*BTW, EnQuest is not an E/P company.

They should engage some of the contributors here when it comes to forecasting and reporting. Shell posted a poor quarter today and attracted this comment ".... proving another one of our common themes: oil major results are completely unpredictable quarter to quarter" and this regarding hedging "Even adjusted for a negative hedging derivative impact of
USD480m in Q2". I mean, if they struggle with the majors what chance have they got of understanding EnQuest?

Makes my wet finger in the air an acceptable research tool.

Torture any set of figures long enough and they'll eventually tell you what you want to hear.

Hi E121 - your 14.38 post is about as far as AB goes in forecasting. He likes to quote another's workings and estimates and say they seem "sensible". He otherwise sticks to "guidance" and behaves in a Muellerish fashion towards questions. He follows the rules closely and as we have said before is always conscious of his duty to other stakeholders e.g. Cairn, Bumi etc.
I have switched off until the September update as the continuous reworking of figures isn't gonna impact on the sp and is becoming the equivalent of polishing the hand rails of the Titanic when there are no icebergs. The macro is in danger of being overlooked (BP had a good day).
This is old news https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/204586/centrica-to-exit-spirit-energy-by-end-of-2020/ but I wonder if it is acting like an overhang of stock on the NS asset market? I expect an announcement before too long and it will show the appetite for NS assets. No doubt Delek or Ineos will be kicking the tyres.

Be Lucky

I will always defer to you when it comes to bonds Soder and when you are highly leveraged I'm sure you're right but BP has Bonds and pays dividends as do other smaller oil companies. In two years time it might be very different (admittedly the negotiations will start much sooner).

never boils and that is a bit like tanker watching imo. To me it's a bit like measuring a flagship hotel's performance by its laundry requirements. They might tell you that the room lettings are up/down but won't tell you the rate the rooms are booked at or the performance of the bar, restaurant or meeting rooms etc.. or the performance of other hotels in the group.
What we do factually know that there was an outage at Kraken but the facility is back on line. The number of days between liftings are easily (not by me) tracked from publicly available sources. This wasn't proprietary information as nothing happened that changed the company's view of guidance for the year. I concur with Londoner and Moffa. In the real world sh*t happens and maintenance is unavoidable. It is always possible that we may see a reduction in the days between liftings going forward and I am comfortable that we are within the company's guidance.

I'm fed up to the ears with old men dreaming up wars for young men to die in. -George McGovern, senator and author (19 Jul 1922-2012)

Whilst attention is focused on the Middle East another human rights violation escapes International opprobrium and attention. I am talking about the illegal detention of US rapper A$AP Rocky by yet another failed state, Sweden. Behind the scenes diplomacy by the Trump administration (Melania and Kim Kardashian) are making strenuous efforts to bring this innocent man home. Sweden insists on policing foreign visitors and breaches the accepted convention that US citizens abroad can do what they like. Lawyers representing the rapper say that he is being held in appalling conditions in the jail in Kronoberg which has no mini-bar and only three stars. Trump threatens bigly retaliation if his “friend” is not released at once.

*The UK supports the US as Sweden still owes reparations for violence and leaving farm gates open in the North East of Britain dating back to the 6th Century.

Looks like the Iranians have a British ship. Serious escalation.

Hi Robbie - in your 10.21 you posted "There`s been quite a high turnover of shares over the last year and institutional shareholders are so short termist ". Well these three aren't:
2016 Baillie Gifford 67m
Aberforth 58m
Swedbank 47m
2019 Baillie Gifford 94m
Aberforth 151m
Swedbank 69m
Source: https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=ENQ:LSE

The Directors and Board have a limited impact on the share price but it's always nice to blame somebody. To suggest that they are actively trying to prevent the stock rising is imo puerile. I suggest you listen here from 08.00 - 09.30 to an ex Chairman & industry professional https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdjTi-uhoqI

It doesn't mean I'm not disappointed in the current price but after reading an article from The Telegraph (my post 7 July) and using the sp of 2.4 times current earnings I looked for another share/sector that was as unpopular as oil and decided that tobacco fitted the bill. I forgot the debt to an extent and looked at BATS which I once held and may do so again. I remain a holder.

If you compare us to BP over the last two days we've done better (they're down 5.23%). I sometimes use them as a bellwether - not very scientific but it'll do for me. The shenanigans refer to the turnover of EnQuest which I don't think is BP related. The volume remains healthy. The 3 late trades of 500,000 each are interesting. You'll notice they haven't got an "A" against them so the timing is not automatic but the time they were recorded - not the time they were dealt imo. Even the UT's are joining in. If they're anything like the old FX fixings the more unscrupulous could adjust/inflate their amounts because of a bit of inside knowledge (bit like casino skimming). From a share trading position EnQuest seems healthy with new money flowing in. Any broker looking after an order will do his best to disguise it and you wouldn't pick up 1,500,000 shares when the market is effectively over. These are professional sized trades and they aren't going to get as excited as some on here at the news from the ME or POO movement. If they were punting on that they wouldn't need to go through EnQuest.

I should add that if another company releases information that impacts on EnQuest then he is freed from concerns about any breaches of confidentiality etc. He does respond to questions when they are phrased around other companies and a specific EnQuest comment that releases him from that aspect. I also get the impression that he prefers not to regularly quote/comment on the performance of EnQuest outside of the AGM and half-yearly updates. Don't expect him to start tweeting any time soon; he is the mirror opposite of a David Lenigas.

It was in the QA when he responded to a question (I can't remember the exact question) saying that the estimates produced by posters here are pretty accurate (rule of thumb?)and he added that they need to factor in the 3 week maintenance shutdown which is a simple mathematical calculation. At another AGM he admitted to reading the BBs to prepare for questions at the AGM. I doubt he reads them regularly and certainly didn't find it strange. This is a guy that prepares and understands his brief. He is unusually open in my experience because there is a lot of scrutiny but he has his red lines and won't , for example, release contract details and was relatively circumspect about Cairn. In another AGM he admitted that he would have liked to have said more but he had an obligation to Bumi. It wasn't being evasive as there are constraints and stabdards that apply across the industry. I would say though that it is unusual for him to avoid or wriggle out of answering. He is very bright. I'm left with the feeling that whilst we zero in on Kraken barrelage he has moved on. He is conservative in his projections which isn't what PI's really want but this isn't an AIM stock. He is always talking to the larger shareholders imo. TBF there are always a lot of short term punters on BBs.

*I was once at another oil company AGM that had finished when the CEO (not realising I was there) said to other Directors, "right, lets move on and do the serious stuff". I wasn't offended. AGMs are often full of small shareholders and are procedural. Most of the important stuff has been agreed beforehand and proxy votes wipe out those attending personally.