Member Info for romaron

There were 2 earlier bets that can either remain or be restated. If either want to change. No problem.
Gurun 38p
SIPP10 32.8p (I love the .8)

I think Aloj has got the spirit of this competition.

Good morning Aloj. You're in but we operate on the KISS principle. It will be the EnQuest LSE UT price on the 30 December 2022. You are the first entry. Any who posted earlier will have to repeat because they are the rules. All entries should be in over this weekend. I'd love to declare you the winner today Aloj as that is pretty high and will certainly surprise some other entrants I'm sure. Some here would become overnight millionaires.

It is intended to be a bit of fun and your suggestion as an opening entry is certainly that. It doesn't make you wrong but it'll certainly get some discussions going.

Good luck

p.s. AB might have mentioned topics covered to John Winterman.

Hi Juan, it'll be a bit of fun and we can ridicule people who are outliers (probably the winner). Invitations and eligibility have been made only to holders or those who add value and isn't meant to be taken too seriously but I detect a steely competitive streak in most on here. It could make for some light-hearted banter which is preferable to some of the other stuff. Have you noticed that trolls never have a sense of humour? My NY Filter list just keeps growing.

The NY is evolving pretty interestingly. Last year screaming for AB to give some meaningless guidance with so many potential hiccups in the middle of a pandemic but silence over a private dinner with the Energy Secretary where our very future would be under discussion. I know what I'd rather hear but it will be kept private. Message boards are strange places.

I notice that Extinction Rebellion and Insulate Britain weren't out supporting the authorities in Kazakhstan. Must be something to do with Covid or couldn't get the flights.

Tip: Be careful when you follow the Masses. Sometimnes the "M" is silent.

from memory but last year didn't the US Shale industry say they were gonna pay back debt and pay dividends?
Well, they've changed their mind and I'm not worried.
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2021/2104#tab-questions
An increase in capital spending is unavoidable with shale because depletion rates are so high (up to 85% first year). Then there's this https://twitter.com/aeberman12/status/1477999239594758148/photo/1

Basically the same as I read Tim. I was just wondering if it was a sample (and who was available) or something deeper. I'm thinking just a sample of industry advice from a representative group. A major, a foreign petroleum company operating in the NS, Private Equity and a Public Limited company.
Still nice to be asked though.

BTW - he seems to think that investors and capital will return so maybe "they" are "they". If that is the case I wonder how "they" willll spin, publish and market their change of heart?

Hi gurun, no mention of OGA so I'm guessing Therapist isn't Jeff Currie. An excellent update and JC hasn't changed his view. I like the mention of we are on the cusp of a commodity supercycle and that commodities are a hedge against rising interest rates (unavoidable i.m.o.). He even suggests that we'll see a ramp up in the next 3>6 weeks.
And we are prepared. We have an interesting scale and are steered by a battle-hardened veteran.

Build it it and they will come.

Quite an interesting video. It goes over a lot of old ground but more interesting is that it is a Swedish evangelist that is not Greta presenting. On the other side giving a counter view is Art Berman. He explains the uphill challenge that renewables face. Generally ignored by the worshippers of Hydrogen and technological solutions. I quite like AB's comment that technology makes things more efficient but doesn't increase the resource.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVrc_2KoS5o&t=1s

If you build it they will come. Not sure who "they" will be exactly but once you sell out of a sector whether for "ethical" reasons or noisy opprobrium from defenders of the planet it is usually a permanent departure especially if they made a big presentation of their decision. Many are proudly promoting their ESG credentials and involvement in renewables.
"They" will be filling a vacuum [well documented phenomenon] because the need for fossil fuels is gonna be around for decades yet and capital appreciation and dividends are still in fashion last time I looked. We've seen Helikon and Cobas arrive and there'll be a few others below the threshold. Smaller private investors with a higher risk tolerance will also fill this gap whilst the really large Private Equity will have to make decisions that reach into Government policy.
I expect resistance to renewables to strengthen and concerted government action to present it as an integrated transition. The killing of fuel protestors in Kazaknstan once the true price of energy was faced as subsidies were reduced will not have gone unnoticed around the world. For some reason heating and fuel shortages get a stronger reaction than holding hands and blocking a motorway?
I know our AB was at the private dinner with Kwasi Kwarteng. This too will attract opprobrium from the usual sources but it tells me two things. The government are worried that an overreliance on renewables doesn't work and that AB is held in high esteem by the industry, specifically regarding the NS.

*I'd love to have a list of other dinner attendees. The one from the Times never mentioned harbour. Does anybody have any info?

Up another 1.219 percent today. Fix 96.844

We all live under the same sky, but we don't all have the same horizon. -Konrad Adenauer, statesman (5 Jan 1876-1967)

If you build it they will come.

It's kicking off in oil rich Kasakhstan

:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-59876093

Don't they have wind and sun over there?

You haven't claimed your prize. Do I just send it to Jeff Currie c/o Goldman Sachs?

I checked my CityIndex and was surprised to see it up a tad after the UT of 19.50. It looks like it closed 19.75-19.91. Tiny difference but there is a trade there and I've never known algos (or day traders for that matter) to turn their nose up at a halfpenny. Probably still very thin so it could easily be next week before we start getting a direction. Very promising all the same to see City protecting the top side.

Assuming that the bond market knows what it is doing and the grown ups have returned to work I take great comfort in the biggest increase since November 2020 which was a reaction to quantative easing then. I wonder what is behind today's leap?
December 31 93.475
Jan 3 93.235
Jan 4 95.625

It normally moves in fractions of a percent. I wonder if we'll get an announcement on debt shortly?

Fine gurun, you're in but save your price for the weekend. I can see this is gonna be like herding cats.

I've come to a decision. Brent is important to us but also to cement producers as well as fertilizer and paint manufacturers. A bet on oil isn't specific enough even industrywise let alone companywise.

The competition is purely on guessing the price of EnQuest on the LSE at close of business on 30 December 2022.

For those who think it too simple and what about FCF then I say if you understand the accounts better than most you will have an advantage. To avoid being dragged to the mean by a dribble of prices entries will not be accepted before this weekend when the message board is quiet (8th-9th Jan). Those posting late will possibly be accused of gaming the system but that isn't my problem.

I'm trying to make it a competition among LTH's or people who bring well thought out and balanced analysis to the message board. I may have missed a few who are less prolific so would extend the invite to SaveMore, Tigar and SIPP10 if they want to play. I'll accept that it may lead to more optimistic forecasting but if I want trivia and misery I can always turn the Filter off. It also means that those playing may well meet up at the 60p party which has been postponed until 2023 after the 2 year hiatus created by the pandemic.

Best wishes and may the bestxxxxx luckiest man win.

I understand the if it ain't broke don't mend it but we saw last year that on the day we began the 2021 competition the sp was 19.43p and Brent c. $65.86. If you'd told me that Brent would finish at an average of c.$71 for 2021 then I'd have pushed EnQuest higher. Whilst the oil price is paramount what we're really after is the price of EnQuest and a bet on our management. How about a double. Brent average for 2022 and the share price of EnQuest on LSE at 31/12/2022? We could even move it earlier to (say) 20 December as suggested by Modestus.

Both prices will have different levers and influences. Debt and the bond rollover is important this year for instance. I'm also coming around to the idea that we should maybe be concentrating on 2023 anyway for oil. As an article on a potential windfall tax (unlikely) pointed out that producers tend to hedge and sell forward production so the profits from 2021 included decisions made in 2020 when oil was much lower. Those baying for a handout because of high petrol prices and gas for heating are looking at their own creation and business incompetence. The money ain't there; yet! 2021 was good but 2022 and 2023 will be a lot better.
To me it allows for this if we put in an estimate for the EnQuest share price as we're starting from a higher Brent base this time. The share price will allow for 2023 influences and missteps or strokes of genius on behalf of the company. In the unlikely event of a merger or take over then we take the last quoted price of EnQuest before the announcement if a done deal or the negotiated price.
Tarmak's carefully crafted FCF will come into our calculations too and is in line with what analysts use to model but really it will depend on this winter, geopolitical and ESG pressures plus of course the possibility of a vagrant and unexpected Black Swan.

Thanks SIPP. I didn't get the Times today but found this here after your post:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/ruzwqf/kwasi_kwarteng_courted_oil_bosses_after_cop26/

I zeroed in on this "However, the dinner failed to reassure some executives. Shell abandoned the multibillion-pound Cambo oil project two weeks later.
“Any international investor that has options where to put their money isn’t going to consider the UK very attractive right now,” one source familiar with the talks said."
Another article suggests it isn't that clear cut. Shell's 30% interest is c.51mboe (plus 53.5 bn cubicft gas) and maybe just not worth the grief from activists. What happens with the 70% holding between Bluewater and Blackstone is more important. Shell said its decision was based on economics and risk of delays. Well they would, wouldn't they.

By invite only. The prize this year is a "Black Swan". Just google 'Irish Dresden black Swan'. They are not so rare and seem particularly attracted to oil companies. I have it on good authority that this particular example has mystical qualities similar to a Leprechaun and if won in fair competition will bring investment luck and success with the ladies plus increased prowess in bed. A very desirable object.

We might need to adjust the criteria slightly to avoid arguments in just over a year's time. If we say FCF it might be altered by balance sheet jiggery-pokery with talk of impairment recredits or tax adjustments etc.. which could lead to a difference of opinion to what that figure is (beyond me!). Maybe revenue for the year might be better but I can see adjustments here as well on tanker collections/sales. Just trying to anticipate so an agreement on the target will be required. A nailed down definition might help and I'm hoping others can assist with this.

The competition is only for long term holders or those who add value to the discussions on here as the debate about the past is rather pointless in my view. We will never be able to buy or sell there so I'll leave that to the day-traders and gloaters who have never lost money in their lives.

If you build it they will come. "They" won't be the traditional funds though. Profit never really goes out of fashion.

*monkey - you're invited too.

What are you on about Stepford Trader (15,000 posts). Isn't living the perfect life with your 2.4 children and ex-model wife not enough to keep you from using any post to vent your spleen?

mrc - we've had our run-ins but I value your pragmatic approach and I feel you may have more oil experience than most here. More than happy for you to enter the 2022 competition if you want a bit of fun.

*my wife was also a model - oven gloves in the 80's.