Member Info for romaron

p.s. they are trialling hydrogen production using brown coal in Australia for transport to Japan.

onedb - charts are for ships which is why so many are on the seabed. It happened in 2009 and 2020. Negative interest and oil at negative prices are impossible too.
I'm only doing an 'Art' to shake people out of their comfort zone. I met a lot of pointy heads when I was in the City. I said to one guy that he was like a rocket scientist and he replied that he did particle physics at Stanford. He then lost me and Spicko at UBS in some derivative meander witha fancy name like 'delta up your jacksy'. I joined in and said we'd just completed a 'triple salcow' and he laughed and said that was at elementary level. The winter olympic were on and I'd been watching Torvill & Dean. It never existed.

I know Squif, it's disgusting, blowing hot one minute and cold the next. Any mirrors in your house?

Why not contango? If the situation in Ukraine deteriorates I can see it happening. It isn't only economic or pandemic hits that force contango. As always it's timing and I think many have bought too early so will roll over. This can leave a glut at the front end. Let's face it, if there is a shortage it is ahead of us; not now.
I still think US prices are still too high and London and the r.o.w. takes its lead from the US.
I haven't heard any other oil CEO's comment and it is only if a specific attack that they would be forced to and anyway it is usually seen as confirmation of a weakness (he would say that wouldn't he).
The media is fluffing it up I'll agree. It's what they do. Bit of a problem to buy oil companies if you have publicly posted your allegiance to the ESG god and relinquished fossil fuel holdings.
I'm happy with my position and enjoyed today.
Some pundits are saying that Russia won't move until after the Winter Olympics. That is 4 more weeks away. I think they just love to have a date (any date) they can work around. Nobody knows for sure and that may include Putin.

I find Art knowledgeable and opinionated. I don't always agree but he is prepared to argue his point as was NH. I don't see much wrong with that. Maybe he wasn't spot on with the oil rally. Neither was I, we both got sidetracked by Covid and shale to an extent. You anticipated both did you?

....meanwhile XR, Insulate Britain and Greta etc... will say this is all the fault of the oil & gas industry. No it isn't. Well, I think they need to keep their heads down because in what could be a desperate time of need the heavily funded and subsidised renewable sector will need to step up. I hope they're ready?
The ESG evangelical cult has been pushing for an end to fossil fuels. Bit like religion, they never expected anything to happen so now the Messiah has finally turned up and his name is Putin. You do have to be careful what you wish for.

Weather report Barnet. Cold, no wind, cloudy.

https://twitter.com/aeberman12/status/1485358812139859970
No, not the stuff you hang on walls but Art Berman who fancies himself as a bit of a philosopher. Can't say I disagree with this.

"Industrial civilization resulted from a pulse of fossil energy consumption that began 300 yrs ago. An 11-fold increase in population resulted.
That was just life following its genetic imperative for growth.
It is as likely to stop as a speeding train—until it crashes."

And if it crashes it'll be like the meteorite and the dinosaurs. Enjoy it whilst you can. Energy from the sun runs out in 7 to 8 billion years.

I've got HYN down at 3/8% today and the RB still above par. I had to reduce my spread bet a little to stay in control but now have flexibility on my portfolio as I unloaded other stocks over the past weeks. I am actually long of cash and trying to time a further purchase of EnQuest. I may well miss it but happy to be in the driving seat.
Amazing on Bloomberg. BlackRock now promoting oil companies. I can see oil going to contango with all this uncertainty around. The followers of TA and the other noise are just in a SELL mood and everything follows. This was fairly well signposted TBF. Old fossils (traders I mean) occasionally have opportunities to use their experience.

For clarity - I would invest in EnQuest with Brent at $65. There is a decent profit at that level too for us a going concern. The earnings between $65 and wherever go more or less straight to the bottom line. This figure was negotiated with the lenders and they aren't charities and there would be a margin built in. Don't miss the bleedin' obvious. Our yearly FCF is bigger than our MC imo.
Just watched a bit of CNN and I kid you not one commentator was asking if we are on the verge of WW3. Not a chance imo but some people out there will believe it.
If Russia cuts off gas they suggest that Qatar will step up. How? They're already at winter capacity and might need the assistance of near neighbours (Saudi Arabia and Iran) who didn't exchange Christmas cards last holiday.
The US isn't the only country that is self-sufficient in energy. Russia and Saudi Arabia are too and know how to play the long game better than most and have a docile media that permits it. The 'high five' that Putin and MBS exchanged at a G20 sticks in my mind. Europe has been led down the path of self-sufficiency by evangelists and that has weakened us in negotiations.

Build it and they have to come when the siren sounds.

error - invincibility of black boxes Taleb famously argued that the Nobel prize winning Black-Merton-Scholes option pricing formula was flawed.

Hi Strike - I didn't really see the point of that. It is market speak the man in the street will just not understand and to me it says FA. I can't get the full article and that might make more sense.
I have traded this morning and sold. A small amount of EnQuest in CityIndex (onedb will understand) and other shares. Nobody knows what happens next but I've been in this business a long time too - it's called life. You don't have to work for Morgan Stanley to know that.
Life means we meet a mixture of people with different attitudes. Savers and wastrels, gamblers and depositors, capital appreciation v dividend etc..... so if anybody is interested why I reduced my stock holdings here it is.
I haven't sold EnQuest shares. I believe they are a safe harbour for reasons I have previously stated. Current returns are phenomenal and we don't know for how long but it will take decades for renewables to replace fossil.
I couldn't care less what pundits say but techs are closer to bitcoin than anything else imo. Covid - so what? Plagues aren't new. What really scares me is the reliance on NEW. Renewables won't stop Russia expanding or power their rockets, tanks and jets. What was scary in the news yesterday was the US reducing embassy staff in Kiev. It is precautionary but with Covid misinformation (or not) some of the people we meet in life will say "what else aren't they telling us". Americans are extremists. Very enthusiastic but sometimes naive. Many don't really care for 'foreigners' and their last President fed off this (as did Farage and Boris). I also (along with Nicholas taleb) don't believe in the invincibility of 'Black Swans'. If people react in an unexpected way (don't they just) and the algos either misread it or weren't programmed who knows what will happen. Electronic markets will fail for a while and the fall will be exacerbated.
I used to leave protection orders with New York when I traded in FX. When they were triggered I'd often get a phone call saying 'we missed it' - 'this was the best I could do' etc...because when it hits the fan the market sometimes screams past you. The US traders are more herd like in their actions and much quicker to cut or bale out in my experience.
I sold because I did't know their reaction to the weekend news.

Thanks Watchman - that's reassuring. Just feeling a tad nervous as I watched "Munich - The edge of War" last night. Tell you what though. Most Americans don't even know where Ukraine is and by progressiohn neither do the algos in the black boxes. In my experience they bale out on a regular basis if they don't understand something or were programmed incorrectly (is it like Chiiiina?). Expect some gyrations later now that getafgrip has spotted the time difference.

But who fights the satanic cannibals of high finance whilst the US is asleep getafgrip? I think we've found out who Q is!

Oops - error "replace Britain with America" I don't want to be accused of parochialism.

Not much we can do other than bunker down for now. Just watched 'Munich - The edge of War' and it takes over other considerations until some clarity is achieved. One interesting quoatation in it by Chamberlain was that England "would not go to war over a local border dispute". We were a world power then and you can now replace England with America.
This could last some time and boy am I glad of my investment in EnQuest.
I can't do the other stuff where posters investigate who has been taking more than their share of Danish pastries from the communal kitchen in Regent St. as spotted in adjustments to unamortised costs in the who gives a f*ck account. I take broad strokes and I am relaxed that the figure of $65 a barrel was chosen as a level where we can make a reasonable profit and pay cash instead of PIK on our bonds. At present we have a margin of safety of around $300mio plus with oil at this level. I'll take that. Some will say that our annual FCF is more than our MC. As I say. I'm not a beancounter.

Build it and they have to come. It is one of the few safe havens at present. It will get worse.

It is a powder keg M. I expect markets to drop tomorrow but I cannot forecast where EnQuest will settle as gas and crude will move higher. It is certainly a defensive stock in theses times and a perfect hedge imo.

What makes me chuckle is the geography concerning Qatar. It could easily be described as a satellite of Saudi Arabia from a geographical perspective and then of course there are their friends across the Persian Gulf who don't appreciate being taken for granted (Iran). I can't believe the market is so relaxed about these unfolding events.

It's complicated: https://www.ft.com/content/1ac9a0b9-5e93-4d1c-8f9b-d3a16db2467a

Hi latpulldown - I don't follow trades because to spend too much time on them is a fool's errand. I am interested in volume though. Negotiated trades will often have an element of secrecy about them, especially the large ones, and it isn't us (the PI's) that they are hiding info from. We are small beer in the scheme of things. The UT is an auction process and it will be used by market professionals when it suits. The really big trades will be done quietly and their priority isn't entering the deal on the system.
Trying to double guess who or what is behind a trade is pretty futile because of the use of nominees and MM actions. It isn't necessarily done on purpose but even getting the information of who traded would only be of use for a short while and the motivation would still be unknown for the bulk of trades.
If you've ever been to an AGM you'll note the registrars checking a huge computer roll against letters of authorisation to attend or allow in shareholders who just turn up. I find it hard to get accurate figures of just who major shareholders are and it isn't policed that well. I telephoned a Registrar to make sure I couldn't access the roll. With that knowledge I called the company direct (not DARK). They confirmed that they do check the roll (manually) once a month themselves because self-reporting is not always followed in the spirit that it was intended, for example: Premier Oil and ARCM.
Discussing trades is useful fodder for posters who have nothing better to do. They think it makes them look knowledgeable. It doesn't. Guessing the meaning of anonymous trades with strangers on an anonymous message board is the definition of puerile. The UT is a marker for various indexes and settlements. A bit like discussing the LIBOR of the day.
If companies find it murky what chance does a pundit on here have who doesn't even know how to access FREE and available out of date figures.

lastpulldown - you're wasting your breath. I realised within a few days of following this message board that CR888 is a dimwit when it comes to trading. I have him on Filter now and would suggest that others consider doing the same. He is harmless to you and me but potentially dangerous to anybody who pays attention to his half-baked theories.

I'm no expert in share trading but spent 27 years as a trader and market maker in FX. Even MMs don't usually know what is behind a clients trade or what a competitor is up to but somehow a guy who doesn't even know about late reporting is some kinda commentator who should be listened to?

*in 2015 the Swiss National Bank removed the Swiss franc to Euro peg. Chaos ensued and the next day 2 older traders at Citibank were accused of being missing from the battlefield and not honouring a commitment that the bank made to other participants. The swings were enormous and electronic trading was intermittent or too volatile. These 2 guys were accused of being m.i.a.

They actually ddi a wonderful job for the bank by resorting to old technology called a telephone. You also need the right numbers to get through. They had made their annual budget by lunchtime.

Do you really expect the likes of Goldman and JP Morgan to get in an orderly queue along with CityIndex customers? CR888 does. Some of these late trades aren't nefarious and either side had a bona fida reason for the deal. MMs are really only messengers/agents. The positions they hold are minute compared to the big companies they handle trades for. If some want to believe there is a conspiracy or a risk free way to make money then carry on. The markets are huge and PI's are at a huge disadvantage from a trading perspective. We can though play like mini Warren Buffets who admits to being a useless trader.

The UT has similarities to Libor and fixes on European bourses. It is necessary to have a price that is less manipuiated than actions during the day and has a level of transparency. To save arguments it could be agreed to settle trades at the UT. I saw some manipulation in FX fixes but it was small potatoes to what went on around it. Players don't wait if the news requires action now.