Member Info for romaron

typo - their business

Hi bobocaca (like the name) - good points. I was a tad concerned by the alleged IR reply correspondence but I don't know the posters here or their history. The wording did seem more robust than usual. I only purchased in the last week or so. I will pay more attention from now on. Is there anyone on here you trust?
I wouldn't accuse the Telegraph of lying. The author (hope I'm right) Laura Onita would do her best at honest reporting. A good journalist wil always try and get a response from the company and state the facts as they see them. Shadowfall have already put their letter into the public domain so they can be accused of twisting the truth. There is a danger of shooting the messenger here and I believe Laura Onita is experienced enough to just report what is already out there, she has a reputation to defend too. I believe it is now in the rear-view mirror and at present Shadowfall haven't done their reputation much good but then again, there business is making money and they appear to have done that.

Go here CR888 (it's FREE) https://www.euroclear.com/en.html

click on 'MyEuroclear' top RHS left of menu. Under Log min click 'Access as a guest / public information. At bottom mclick on 'Monthly stock loan data'. You won't get January figures until February and that is because its FREE I guess. IHS Markit have fresher data but no doubt expensive.
Move tab to December 2021 and it's self explanatory after that. Enjoy.

I don't think the external auditors, Grant Thornton UK LLP or people like Sir Peter Bonfield CBE would casually put their reputation at risk especially with a company like Darktrace which attracts extra attention due to the Mike Lynch association. It would have to be a rather brazen and confident conspiracy to do what was alleged and the facts and individual Directors, Board and Auditors of Darktrace don't really fit the profile of scammers.
I think it unlikely that Deloitte (Autonomy) will ever be external auditors but if you're looking for fictitious sales then I'd suggest they're [ShadowFall] looking in the wrong place and wrong company.
Spats between accountancy treatment of sales are pretty common and there is a certain level of commercial sensitivity which can make it look like companies are trying to hide detail.
I increased my holding specifically because of this attack to buying into DarkTrace. It seems illogical for Darktrace to fiddle the figures with the level of scrutiny it attracts in this area.

A word of caution here Juan. Possibly a build up of oil reserves in case Russia/Ukraine situation escalates into a full out war. It does look like poor timing on the draw down of SPR last year. If there was a quick settlemenrt we'd see a drop in oil. Ain't oil fun.

seem to hold a grudge for a long time:

https://www.cnbc.com/2012/11/21/analysts-had-questioned-autonomys-accounting-years-ago.html

Another go. Assuming Laura Onita is the journalist running with this it does seem a little odd (to me) that somebody described as 'Retail Editor' covered this story. I'd have thought it more the tech area. Anyway, I'm quite happy with the rebuff from IR. I abbreviate the Sunday Times to ST so was confusing myself (it's an age thing).

It just dawned on me. Thanks.

Hi Ndn71 - I have the Sunday Times Business & Money from yesterday. Is this the edition that you are mentioning because I cannot find anything about Darktrace in it. If it was online can you give some detail of what was written?

"The smart money has probably already left." I concur. Once the newspapers and associated media have the story it has usually already moved on. Reacting is not always the cleverest move. I topped up this morning because smart money wants volume and liquidity. Day traders aren't fussy.

It's a US holiday today. Friday would have been quiet too (long weekend) and an ideal time for shenanigans because of the thin market. I've bought 3 times in the last week and am a newbie here but not to Mike Lynch. I was in Autonomy so clearly don't understand the products but never doubted ML's forward thinking and peer respect. I also like the female influence in the company and companies with a heavier weighting of women at board level do tend to outperform. I'm not too worried about accusations on billing etc.. because I would expect the governance of DarkTrace to be of a very high standard for historical (and obvious) reasons.

*Totally irrelevant but my pal lives in The Glade opposite Bancroft's School which ML attended and we're both Essex boys.

Be Lucky

Interesting article by Oliver Shah in ST titled 'The income addiction'. I only mention it because unlikely our Swedish friends read it (plus Modestus) or are as aware of the poor overall performance of the FTSE against other indexes. This in turn feeds into our further inferior performance against (say) Canadian/US oil stocks. Dividends are a key feature of the London market and in some ways a legacy of the generous (but now mostly closed) defined-benefit funds which promised to pay retirees a percentage of their final salary in perpetuity . There is a strong feeling among many that this fundamentally holds back London as the money could go into research and growth. US companies prefer buy-backs and leave it up to the investor when to cash in for income purposes. I'm happy with that as dividends are sometimes a lazy method and plays on our inertia. Nobody minds money coming into your account but is it right in a longer term strategy? "Yeah, we did miss that bargain from BP but we had dividends to pay out". It also points out that 50% of investors don't spend the dividend.
One venture capitalist says "Asset managers in the City have missed the biggest investment story of the past 20 years". Since 2010 in a raging bull-market driven by near-zero interest rates & stripping out dividends the S&P has gained almost 4 X as much as the FTSE. Some of this is down to tech (29.2% S&P, 1.7% FTSE).

It isn't all lost though as "The peak to trough in the Nasdaq from 2000 to 2003 was 79 per cent" proving ghow short memories are. One tech founder commented "You could probably count on two hands the number of UK investors that would purchase a loss-making business - it's just not in their DNA. The problem is it's a self-fulfilling cycle: if no one buys the shares, they don't go up and you're unprofitable before the shares appreciate - and then everyone says, 'Oh well, I told you so -they just needed to be profitable.'" I also read elsewhere that if you had held Nasdaq in 2000 it would have taken 14 years before you were back in profit.

This is where rotation comes into it. Trees don't grow to the sky and we are already seeing toppish tech prices and an renewed interest in commodities. We are attracting interest from Private Equity/hedge funds and hopefully this will grow. That in turn filters down to PI's and share tippers. Even allowing for sector mix, UK shares trade at a 12 per cent discount to the rest of the world.

Build it and they will come.

Pelle - I think they just go by the numbers. Reduced production and possible lowering of reserves. They'll have a model and have a more cautious approach. It is still a much higher price! Off the record they might agree with Jeff Currie but that isn't their role.

I'd imagine that the preferred route for BP would be too offload the field. They've been following the Unilever playbook of appeasement to the 'sustainability' lobby. Described by Terry Smith as "losing the plot" or "mayo madness" [every product should have a purpose].
I think prodding the activists or giving them a chance of air time would mean that a re-start up of Foinaven could be linked to a Cambo type scenario to be manipulated. The quiet life means that they'd choose the sale route.
Even if nothing happens here it does show that life is always interesting in the North Sea. If Boris goes and the right wing takes over you will see a much more fossil friendly approach. I wonder how many times a year approaches from different areas are made to EnQuest (M&A, majors, JV's, finance deals, ideas? etc...) Hopefully we'll be in a position to take some forward over the next few years. Hitman's point is important. There is another side to credit risk and that is the risk between parties if any deal gets cratered or parties disagree (court cases, CNE impairment etc..). We are daily becoming a stronger company and have increased leverage for new deals.

Build it and they will come

O/T but I remember Foinavon winning the 1967 Grand National. My mum and nan had it at 100-1. I think it qualified as a 'black swan' event.

Good spot SIPP. Lateral thinking - I was trapped in thinking new field not new FPSO. Share purchases by AB around 20 Dec and JW 7 Jan might indicate it's a red herring but possible all the same. It would be a great move but possibly the second hand market in FPSO's is bigger than we know? After Deepwater Horizon BP couldn't afford to take the slightest risk, especially in its own backyard.
Please - no more capital raise from shareholders. A placing would be acceptable by me in this time of opportunity.

I'm surprised oil isn't higher with Russia/Ukraine. Blowing up a gas pipeline is not out of the realms of possibility which would send oil through the roof. I miss gkb47 - he'd be all over this like a rash.

I asked IR if they were intending to have an actual AGM this year and whether the (slight imo) threat of a windfall tax would be mitigated by our tax position. This is the answer:

We are currently hoping and planning for an in person AGM – I think we are all looking forward to a return to normality! This will of course be subject to whatever restrictions are around.

Regarding windfall tax – yes, if (ever) enacted in a similar way to prior “raids” we would expect to be able to use our tax losses to shield us. Of course, they could implement a new tax, which would then require us to review its rules and applicability of our tax position etc.

*Build it and they will come.

*that refers to investors as the AGM is too far for many and some here aren't shareholders. I hope it's on and I can make it. I usually do.

I only mentioned Mariner because it's heavy oil and was tied up with Bressay and Bently when Xcite was around. Just throwing it out there for discussion as it popped up on a news feed. I look at the overall picture and search for clues. Statoil decided to go ahead with Mariner but not Bressay after paying Xcite for data. We don't know the real story there. Are Equinor still interested or trying to offload Bressay? Are they using the impairment on Bressay as leverage against the UK Government etc.. We still have no idea if anything of consequence came from the private dinner with Kwasi Kwarteng. I think it was temperature testing but this announcement came shortly after. I'm not into conspiracies but there are an enormous amount of opportunities around in this 'transition' and I'm expecting the unexpected. We have the scale to be involved and there isn't a queue to replace us. I am open minded about the Mariner impairment but some will connect it to a nearby heavy oil field plus Maureen and Heimdal sands. I hope you're right Slift.
As for impairments I don't really understand them but assume they are viewed differently at $50 Brent than at $85 Brent. It was also interesting to note that it isn't only EnQuest that has the occasional problems.

Ooops, correction - not the low price of commodities themselves but the companies involved in producing them.

Same source. Fransisco Blanch head of global commodities at Bank of America forecasts triple digit for crude ($120) whilst his counterparty at Citi, Edb Morse, goes for $80-100 with the topside (if hit) attracting increased supply. Both mentioned commodities are late cycle performers whilst Evy Hambro of BlackRock said they cannot believe the low prices of commodities.
Only mentioning because I don't think they post on here.

If you build it they will come.