Member Info for romaron

Or should I call you Jeff from now on? Nothing from Juan but although no official figure yet I think it clear you won the prize for closest to the average brent for 2021. To claim your prize I'll need details at romaron49@gmail.com
Total discretion and a quick security safety check is all it will take.

More details to follow about this year's challenge. I have the prize ready but open to suggestions on the exact challenge. There could be a delay if it is FCF until EnQuest release figure in late March 2023.

2022 finalists are the same as 2021 plus Tarmak and Modestus.

2021 entries were:
L7 64.4
Hitman 66.5
Juan 67
Therapist 71.19
E121 75.5
Pelle 85

A lot of questions there Pelle. For a start you pick 2 companies that are not in the same jurisdiction as EnQuest. Some people on here ignore Governance. I don't and neither does AB and his team. I haven't researched all the oil companies operating largely on the NSCS but choose Tullow and Harbour as comparators and I am certainly glad I was in ENQ rather than TLW or PMO. I'm sure there are others that may have done better but basically our bet (imo) is that fossil fuels have a future. I was invested at different times in CNE and BP and neither of them have set the world alight recently. HBR recently had a CMD and that (so far) has been a damp squib. I think that will change this year and expect that company to do well.
We haven't had a CMD for several years and if we had tried to fluff up a presentation it would have failed (again imo) because of a background of Covid and a capital raise without the colourful attention of ESG activists like Greta and Insulate Britain.
I think when the timing is right EnQuest will be able to present a bigger and better story but the opportunity hasn't gone away. I do know a little more about this area of business but I'm not prepared to go into it. On your side I have an EnQuest investor friend who actually worked in this area for Shell and he leans more towards your argument. I'm not against promoting EnQuest in a good light but I doubt I'm alone in thinking it would have been money down the drain over the recent months/years. We have kept our powder dry and if we are in the right position to maximise our oil production and its potential it will have a greater impact. As always it is about timing. I think we have a good story to present to the market and a size/scale that makes us an interesting partner for the larger companies and of course their is always Private Equity sniffing.
We also had various CPR's over the years and at figures times some pointed questions from analysts that make stabs at the future. That is their job, not necessarily AB's. Then there is the point that a flowery presentation will come back and bite you in the arse if things go wrong and in oil that happens with frightening r egularity and would have an even worse impact on the share price.
We are a small cap with still large debts that means you have to delve deep to be an investor here. The funds largely ignore us because of our small size and I did a long post about our insignificance in the books of Schroder and Baillie Gifford.
There is nothing wrong in shareholder pressure but I'd still rather have AB running this company that the likes of squif or KO. It is always easier sitting in the gallery.
Finally, do you really think they haven't a strategic plan? Any company that wants to commit to 5 year plan in oil is either clearly out of their mind or a North Korean company. Majors because of their size try and usually get it wrong. AB will have a personal plan and no doubt the board have contingencies in plac

What disclaimer? It is clear to all that you are actually Jeff Currie and "accidentally" came closest. Not officially over but unless Juan wants a recount and refuses to accept it looks like you are the winner.
We'll sort out details tomorrow.

HNY tutti

Not aimed at you Pelle. Just pointing out that predictions in oil are almost impossible but fundamentals will come through, eventually. I believe AB is in deeper than any of us but knows that hyping a stock is for AIM and the David Lenigas's of this world. AB will go along with othere responsible CEO's. They have to cross their fingers for even a year out which is why when you get it right the rewards can be enormous. In a difficult industry he has done better than the average CEO imo but the geopolitical and ESG/renewable onslaught has been relentless. There is always room for improvement with EnQuest but blaming it all on his stewardship is ignoring reality. I value your contributions.

Whenever Daniel Yergin (Pulitzer prize winner) comments he gets my full attention:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Daniel-Yergin-US-Oil-Production-May-Increase-By-900000-Bpd-Next-Year.html
It isn't that he says that the US will produce around another million barrels a day in 2022 but what the US administration wants from US producers. He is influential enough to be included in calls with the US Energy Secretary and it seems that after being rebuffed by OPEC+ the Biden administration want the US producers to take over the role.
Basically asking the unloved industry to rinse and repeat the pre-pandemic playbook. Produce more, push the price down and let "patriotic" shareholders take the hit (I inserted "patriotic"). Just when the promise of dividends and capital appreciation was being realised.
Looks like there are plenty more fun and games with twists and turns for the New Year. Whichever way you slice it, if demand comes back there isn't enough production to meet it.
If Yergin is right then the US producers have a strong hand with the Government. The guy from Pioneer sums it up nicely.

*shouldn't affect us though as what really matters is AB giving a flowery and optimistic forecast to the UK stock market from his underused crystal ball, apparently.

*spare a thought for Charlotte Church. Her green enterprise in Wales relies on off-grid batteries to store renewable energy. They ended up costing £300,000 and wiped out her entire budget. Another one who believed the hype.

HNY holders

The second article criticised the energy price cap. This "crisis" was always due to happen but taking measures to protect against it aren't vote winners. It went on to examine the true cost of energy and it is horrendous. Economic distress for households is very real now and sticking plasters are as short in supply as lateral flow tests. Meanwhile the O&G industry is hounded more than Ghislaine Maxwell for giving consenting adults what they wanted.
The author raised the taboo question of considering more intensive exploration of NS O&G and that Cambo now looks more likely to go ahead. The lack of capex spending is now somehow the industry's fault?
Two very different articles and each will have its supporters. Forecasting the future of oil is like nailing jelly to the wall and yet we have the usual imbecilic mantra from certain individuals demanding fairy stories from AB. I'm sorry but he doesn't know the future and your guess is often as good as his. Analysts, pundits and individuals on here can give forecasts. It would be poor governance on behalf of the board to make guesses because of factors beyond their control. Their guidance on production is something they can control to an extent but the oil price is everything as well as tax. Then we have Insulate Britain who know absolutely F*ck all but have already cost us £3.5mio in police time without the losses their blockades forced on us, the tax payers.

Luckily I'm out today so cannot comment further.

For those that insist on living in a fantasy world, buy a comfort blanket or get out of investing because the real world takes no prisoners.

There were 2 articles in the Times yesterday with a similar theme. The first demanded a windfall tax using this individual "Dale Vince, founder of the renewable energy provider Ecotricity, yesterday called for oil and gas producers which have made large profits from the surge in wholesale pricesto help pay for the bill for companies that have collapsed under the strain." Poor reporting but the juniors fill in during holidays. Many oil companies have struggled but no mention of energy providers not hedging or relying on a cap that is funded by taxpayers. This always happens when the punchbowl is taken away and cruel economic factors come into play. The bill for this shambles, totally engineered by a supine Government, will as usual be paid for by the taxpayers.
Nobody has to use fossil fuels any longer we're told. You can give up foreign holidays and travel by bicycle. Heating and cooking will be provided by chilting and friends whilst the cost will be passed on to, whom??????
Playing to the gallery is always temporary mind you the quote by Bernard Looney that the oil & gas giant BP is like a "cash machine" doesn't help. Prerhaps he could take lessons from AB whilst blowing your own trumpet doesn't seem to have worked for Harbour either.
I think we are one of the companies protected from any windfall tax due to our existing tax credits. I think it would be hard to enforce because who is next? Airlines and property deals? You could also have the o&G industry saying "f*ck you" you've relentlessly forced us down this road by appeasing the noisy minority that don't worry about bills that somebody else will always pay.

Welcome to the real world.

Pointless telling me Pelle. You should be addressing this directly to the company. With any luck there'll be an actual AGM this year. You know that the company doesn't go in for the speculative potential of markets at a certain level of oil. There is little to be gained and he is really addressing the larger holders and analysts. The stronger and better company's don't need to raise investor's hopes and then see them dashed when (for instance) a virus comes along. Asking the management to predict the future is beyond anybody. Oil has been particularly hard hit by a mixture of events and ESG attacks. The world doesn't want to accept that oil is still an essential part of their economies. That's why I rely on you guys for the speculation. The real world often lets you down but I cannot see how the populist governments around the world, especially the West, wriggle out of the position they have cornered themselves into. We have a minimum imo of 3 very good years ahead of us.

Of course Pelle - just demonstrating how easy it is to manipulate over different timescales how the picture can change. We all need to accept that the traditional funds aren't gonna come back and invest in fossil fuels. The money we'll make is real though. Of course I wish we'd done better but many companies went to the wall or will remain zombies. We aren't one of them. I've jut sent a long email to another investor giving more colour on a meeting I had last week. Unfortunately there is a limit to what can be posted on here in regards to confidences and discretion.

Oh dear Mrd, have his parents been giving him fizzy drinks before bedtime again?

Once again the US seems to have landed on their feet. Under the guise of energy relief they'll pump up the gas and say it was because of humanitarian reasons. Has there ever been a more hypocritical nation? Is this how Biden will explain his reversal on COP26 promises?
I'm not surprised but when it comes to US self-interest few can match them. I'm pretty confused by it all and in some ways I'm glad we're more oil based. The end of the year window-dressing will confuse the picture as well so it will be nice to see some clarity early next year and of course our operations update in the first week of February.

I'm not expecting the market to ever publicly promote oil & gas again as we have to follow the majors lead and they prefer the more submissive approach whilst at the same time hang on to their large cash inflows. Purchasing their own shares is a good indicator and I'm quite happy to take a generous dividend from EnQuest for the next decade.

*with gas in such demand you'd expect Gazprom to be doing back-flips. Not so according to this article:
https://www.ft.com/content/2a1a14d1-30f6-4707-a2da-4a041c87f6e8
Its surprising but we've done even better share price wise than Gazprom according to google (65%) this year.

hitman - don't fall into the trap of thinking that today reflects the underlying market. Those who have to find oil and place it have finished for the year. We know algos don't have family or go down the pub so anybody buying goes oops when they realise it was only them and no NEW buyers have come in. Same the other way round. Algos like to go home square and the market is ridiculously thin and you are clearly bored. I agree that the shares are cheap, cheap but you'll have to wait until next year now. It is only really 1 dealing day away. I think from Tuesday next week it gets interesting, especially if Covid news is good.

“This has now moved from an energy supplier crisis to a cost of living crisis.”
--Martin Young, Investec

"British energy bills to remain high until 2023, suppliers warn": FT yesterday

I take responsibility for my financial decisions. If I was risk averse I wouldn't be here. Still glad I wasn't in Tullow or Premier. BP and Cairn haven't exacrtly set the world alight either. Interesting commentary on Canada but that has been the case ever since I bought my first oil stock and even before. I was invested in Xcite and another investor was a Canadian oil worker who obviously had no fears about its heavy oil but (like me) missed other drivers in oil around 2014/15.
Back to my favourite video which stands the test of time and is still relevant. Listen at 8.00 onwards and around 9.00 he likens UK shares to lottery tickets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdjTi-uhoqI
Some may be unaware that Jim Buckee was an ex-Chairman of EnQuest. The last role he had was with Black Swan Energy that was a Canadian oil company which got swallowed up by Tourmaline.
The UK doesn't value oil companies as highly as the US or Canada. That is a fact and people either live with it or get out. It also makes them cheaper in the UK. Swings and roundabouts. It is pointless whingeing non-stop (assuming they're even shareholders) because we are a small cap that will not be on funds lists or at an investible grade. I think AB has done a sterling job in the most difficult conditions. Few have done better. Investors don't trust our Government and neither do I.
I see this as a company which will return my investment and a decent profit over the next few years. AB is aligned with me. For those who like lower risk I would recommend Harbour.

Build it and they will come.

Today's Times. A study of 10,000 shoppers by Nottingham University has found that they shun single-use plastic bags to save money rather than the planet.
The Government is ignoring this research and is confident that for larger purchases the good people of the UK will happily pay for higher fuel bills because this monetary link with environmental concerns is irrelevant as the vast amount of subsidies given to the renewable industry means they [the Govt] have invested too much money and reputation to turn back now.
The people of Britain will in the next few months be able to make their feelings known. The old Blitz spirit should see us through and rationing will at least help lose the extra Christmas pounds.
I know from my experience with EPC's that people paid for them because deals couldn't go ahead without them (sales & rentals) but begrudged every penny. About 1 in a 100 paid attention to the results but this was a decade ago so maybe enthusiasm has increased for energy saving and paying over the odds for renewable energy.

Doubling of energy bills is gonna hurt. Maybe it's that warm glow of helping the planet as you queue at the food bank will save this Government.

Somehow I doubt it.

Once again chilting displays his ignorance. I was involved in energy and am still have a diploma in Greenh Deal Domestic Advice Training. I did EPC's for a while and it was not unusual in homes occupied by the elderly to see that they had moved into one room and were using a mixture of cardigans and blankets with the heating either OFF or in one room only. Often it was asmall electric fire. I visited a brand new block where 2 young students from Newcastle were wearing overcoats indoors because the (electric panel heaters) heating was too expensive. Blame it on gas, why? There is plenty still in the ground and since when has Putin been a friend of the UK and NATO?
Renewables don't fluctuate? But they rely on fossil for their problem with intermittency and don't let's go down the road of subsidy.
Fossil dominancy is the problem? Not with me it ain't. But then I'm invested here and not trolling a board where I've no investment and an appalling lack of insight.

Take your sandwich board to Oxford Street Stanley where it'll be appreciated.

Yes

ZFG - why would they issue an RNS when they didn't for the problem in the first place? Magnus is important but its problems pale into insignificance compared to what we have just gone through.
23 November - oil plunges $10 a barrel - Omicron blamed [IR not involved]
Early November COP26 - relentless media and activist propaganda against fossil fuels
SPR releases announced by a besieged US President with coordinated assistance from nations facing similar energy pressures
Major oil companies announcing withdrawal from fossil fuel exploration and development
An insatiable evangelical movement of extremists led by the like of Gret aand Insulate Britain etc.....

In the face of this tsunami does anybody really think that IR could have done anything?

Imagine the reverse and another media campaign explaining why oil is literally becoming worth its weight in gold and people cannot go on holiday due to the cost of flights and shortage of kerosene. Old people freezing to death because they cannot afford to heat their homes. That's where we're heading.

Hand brake turn on its way! Politicians are still the experts in expediency and the public purse not inexhaustible. Fossil fuel is still a lot cheaper than renewables.

You're right Tarmak. The actual outcome of FCF for 2022 is of course, unknown. If previous years are anything to go by then it is more akin to a lottery anyway. Still, the fun and prize for the winner makes it worth the challenge. Much can happen with even M&A being possible. We'll all start off with roughly the same level of production but everything else is subject to fate.

I know the markets are thin but I'm not disliking the move upwards of Brent.

Thank you for the socks Father Christmas but what I really wished for was EnQuest to be at 60p.

bah humbug!