Member Info for Roguemale1

I make it 230 now, offer 369 ish but yeah.
Cant remember the actual price pre increased share issue so dunno re the 80

He is probably just employed to exert downward pressure to allow a lower entry for longs?
Like that guy HarryCash, with his catchphrase "all in theory of course". He was great....all his initial posts were after really bad RNSs that caused a big price drop.

Yeah its a mixed offer for sure...like that old joke where someone asks for directions and the answer is well I wouldn't start from here...Interesting to see how it plays out. I am hopeful that patience will be rewarded.

Whoops my post has been removed? Not sure why.
I was saying that I didnt think they have had long enough bearing in mind most of their tenure has been during Covid....

Ah, well personal knowledge trumps pragmatism, fair do's!

I understand the emotion.
SO it seems to me the two principals are Cheryl and Euan. Both appointed in January. Covid started being discussed in the business I was in mid Feb probably. So say 2 months max getting to know their way around and then the sky fell in mid March. Since then there will have been a fair bit of firefighting just to keep a semblance of normal service.
I'd give a new man in a big business at least a year, and even ignoring covid effects he hasn't had that yet.
Maybe i'm too pragmatic...but the next set of results are going to be Covid numbers, and the rate we're going, so are the next lot albeit hopefully to a far lesser extent..
Dunno. I don't think we have got enough to judge.
Thoughts?

No problem toneman

And it underlines that they aint going bust-otherwise he would have waited and bought it for a £1.
Hope youre wrong though I was prepared to wait a few years for 50p

Hey.
I picked the that year at random really could have been before or after. The % age split of activities hasn't changed much apart from the fact that travel sales as we know are currently smashed.
Because they illustrate that only about 20% of the profit comes from areas currently on hold. That is the point.
SO for someone to say that "most" of Sagas turnover is on hold is clearly incorrect, unless you consider 20% of profit now to be "most". So bearing that in mind and if you know the build up of the profit having familiarised yourself with the accounts being a conscientious investor, then to make that statement is thus being misleading isnt it?
So the result do help, because they show that 80% of the profit, which has to cover overheads, should still be if not at the level it was, hasn't disappeared in a puff of smoke....

Blueveiner
" ...stopping Saga from selling most of its products"
Are you being deliberately misleading to people who don't bother reading the accounts?
Or do you not actually know what this business does and where the profit comes from? Maybe read the annual report?
Travel is stopped, but has only ever made a small contribution to the profit of the business...
Segmental performance
12m to
Jan 2018 Growth
12m to
Jan 2017
Revenue
Motor broking (written) £117.8m 5.2% £112.0m
Home broking (written) £81.4m (6.1%) £86.7m
Other broking (written) £76.2m (5.2%) £80.4m
Total Retail Broking (written) £275.4m (1.3%) £279.1m
Written to earned adjustment £7.2m (61.3%) £18.6m
Total Retail Broking (earned) £282.6m (5.1%) £297.7m
Underwriting £98.8m (12.0%) £112.3m
£381.4m (7.0%) £410.0m
Travel £448.8m 3.9% £432.0m
Emerging Businesses and Central Costs £29.9m 2.0% £29.3m
£860.1m (1.3%) £871.3m
Underlying Profit Before Tax
Motor broking (written) £39.0m 37.3% £28.4m
Home broking (written) £53.0m (8.8%) £58.1m
Other broking (written) £31.2m (1.3%) £31.6m
Total Retail Broking (written) £123.2m 4.3% £118.1m
Written to earned adjustment £7.0m (64.8%) £19.9m
Total Retail Broking (earned) £130.2m (5.7%) £138.0m
Underwriting £79.2m 2.7% £77.1m
£209.4m (2.6%) £215.1m
Travel £20.4m 36.9% £14.9m
Emerging Businesses and Central Costs (£39.7m) 6.8% (£42.6m)
£190.1m 1.4% £187.4m
On that basis I'd watch your short....
GLA longs....

Not 100% sure i've done the math on this correctly but.... for Alex to hit his jackpot he has to return £73.4m net profit in the 3 years to 31/12/22?
This is Yr 1 which is likely to be 0 or negative, so that's a 2 year average of £36.7...ie better than last few profitable years...
I guess we'd take that, so come on Alex, crack on with it!

Tick up Alnwick.
Nuff said.

Agreed.
I don't insure with them as I tend to have niche risks, but all my providers do the same notch up, phonecall, er no, shimmy.
That's the insurance way i'm afraid.

Looks very nice to be fair.
Dates starting 29/3/21..for both ships
Lets hope they a)actually happen and b) sail full!
GLA!

Pianista,
With respect, you and I have had this debate before and it is not true to merely say the price is what it is due to cruising. As a long term holder you have suffered the drop from 200-100-50 on the back of two years massive negative goodwill charges causing large losses at the bottom of the page. These were pre covid and not cruising and more than wiped out the underlying profit of the insurance business.
So from 50 COVID then knocked it down to 20 ish and we are now where we are. Now cruising is an issue yes as we have assets/ongoing liabilities with no income. So yes clearly a resumption is needed now, but that alone isn't why we are here.
The recently discovered large %age of symptomless students is soon going to prompt someone to realise that the population is far more previously infected than accepted to date and that we need to get on with life vaccine or not.
Whatever management team is in place need time outside of pandemic. I know people say this bloke that bloke no confidence but the current management team only arrived before last Christmas and a couple of months in the sky fell in. I don't think we will know good or bad for 18 months at least imho. 33p was a fire sale offer and I would hope that we will get back double that in due course.
So yes, start cruising again, add some good insurance results without a negative charge and then we'll be rocking!
GLA

A belated welcome.
A while back I thought this was heading back to the IPO level but its stopped again...
Like the Kooks said "She moves in her own way" its not moved by the likes of us anyway!
GLA

Got round to it now.
Found the 2.093B shares figure.
So
Back when the shares were at £2 and the 1.12B shares in issue, MC was £2.24B, so using post consol share in issue of 139.533m gives a price of circa £16.
Current on post consolidated shares in issue about £1.20 ish
Now we know that the £2 in old money days are a long way off or unachievable with current conditions in the insurance market but with reduced debt and a return to divi and profit I could see £8 being possible in a couple of years.
We shall see.

Jed,
Forgive me but I am away travelling at the moment....I have scanned the last few pages of posts, but cannot see any calculation of the total number of shares in issue. This is ultimately the issue because a share is just a share of a cake. What we want is the cake to go back to the cake it was a few years ago. That Market cap divided by the new final shares in issue is the potential target surely?
So does anyone already calc the shares in issue after the raise and consolidation? (I will go over the RNS again later)
Talk of prices without tying back to MC/Shares in issue is a waste of time or misdirection.
Anyone who was over at HYVE will recall the total confusion over there, with talk of 10 bagger this and that which actually would have meant a trebling of the pre covid value of the business. The other problem to come is that each trading platform will revise the share price graph backwards after the consolidation, with some very misleading figures on them!!
SO new total shares in issue anyone?

Well I go travelling for a bit and look what happens...
The problem for main contractors is that the specialist subs do most of the work and make very good returns...if they dont they aint around too long because most dont have 50 years of reserves to fall back on. And most are very good at leaving certain risk with the MC. They dont necessarily sign a contract which is back to back with MC.
So the main contractors, eg COST, have a slim mark up on the sum of the subs and their own staff.

FWIW my opinion now is:-
a)Some of the major investors are going to want a head.
b) The Arabs aren't going sit quietly with their current stake.

Interesting times ahead I think. But as was noted below, timescales in heavy civils are long from bid to final account. SO by the time current hopefully good bids come to fruition we may not see the ultimate benefit..
IMHO etc etc.

Agreed.
MB10 tick up for the likely shares in issue earlier