Member Info for Roguemale1

Hey,
Graphs reading 1000p plus have been back extrapolated and that was not the price at the time. Based on market cap in January, target initially would be about 320p imho. See previous posts.
There are some on here who think its gonna 10 bag, but the only 10 bagger around here is when Ocado turn up with my delivery about 6ish.
Market cap in Jan 815m. Market cap today 313m.
GL whatever you decide.

Indeed. MC 200m last NAV 588m.
As Pokerchips alluded to earlier, for me that is because of a)cash and b)debt. Give confidence on cash first and then reduce the debt and the price will be where we want to be. And if we then decide to hang on a little divi might be a bonus for our hard work.
I did email investor relations and got a prompt reply which answered my questions. I dont think its fair to copy to paste here but the 56m charge to Travel coming out of cash was mainly the refunds of 44m to which you refer below ie should be a one off. SO monthly cash burn do able.
An outstanding query from previous was to get a feel for the major shareholders and their %s-does anyone know where that may be accessed?
Cheers

NSF and SAGA.
Dont ask! LOL.

Dialled in audio only. SHould have registered a few questions as the ones that were asked were feeble.
One was asking if less paper could be used for the posted annual reports!!
No financial questions at all.
No pay cuts, for either Directors or any other staff.
Euan bonus fully justified as he done so much in a short time and wasn't here when the price dropped.
Nothing significant discussed, they must be breathing a sigh of relief as I type....
All resolution passed.
I will mail some to investor relations instead.

To be honest I would have preferred more clarity re a raise or the payment to the travel business being a one off or not.
I am going to dial in at 11 and see how long I can bear it, LOL.
If they raised they could bring ship payment back to date, free for divi in a shorter time. Can only think they dont want to at this level, but everyone else has. To be fair they havent issued equity for a long time.

Well it shows why the airlines have been so intransigent about returning fares … at least we have a good reputation preserved in respect of that...
Anybody dialling in later?

Agreed Hosai,
Am waiting for a couple of riskier plays to deliver and then will stock back here if I can catch the train before it leaves!
Rs

Hi WG,
Yep agree on the non dilution if you took up your rights, but you still have the shares in issue increase. Like I said before Market cap is key. The value after the consol/rights would be expected to be higher because the risk of liquidity has been sorted.
But your heading back to a functioning company at a market cap that was 830m in Jan.. So that value is the first target for them. You cant get away from that. But like I said happy to be proved wrong.
GL

Hi Groover,
Well I havent seen 6000p on any chart? Perhaps that should be the 600 on HL say in Jan peak?
HL revised chart (which as I said I dont think is correct) shows a high peak of just north of 1500 sometime in 2012?
Look at the chart on LSE here. December/Jan price about 100, (or Yahoo? app on I phone same) which is what I was aiming for as a recovery price when I bought stock here in March once it had gone to about 20p. So yeah, I was looking for a 4 x at that point. It was known that they were going to dilute. When they announced the 69% dilution I reduced my holding to try for bigger gains elsewhere.
Believe me I'd be ecstatic at 600 never mind 6000.There are now 265 million shares in issue. So 60 quid a share would be a market cap of 15.9bn! Even at 6 quid, that's 1.59bn...In January MC was about 835m. I think itll rise from here and in a years time itll be heading to 300 assuming the world is back to normal and their market has survived unscathed.
Still, that's just my view based on the numbers I can see. Maybe someone can explain how 100p in Jan becomes 600 based on the backtracked chart?

I fear that some are looking at some charts which have been re worked post consolidation/dilution which is giving them a false perspective on what normality value looked like for Hyve, The chart on here shows the pre covid price around 100p. If anyone can tell me how that has become 5-600p on say the HL chart then please do! As pre my previous view I think it should be around 300, either by 100 x 10 then dilute by 69%, or indeed shares in issue market cap pre and post.
I have previously asked a broker at HL how it was done and he stated that they effectively buy in that information from a 3rd party provider. I have now emailed them with more detail to see if they can explain.
Im not trying to talk it down-I am a holder, albeit at a lower level than when they announced the consolidation/dilution. I was after the 4 bagger at that point, so reduced and left some in just in case something unexpected happened.
Still a decent upside but I fear people looking at re worked charts are thinking this is somehow going to 600+ in the near future, without looking at how the shares in issue has been rising over the years .
If I get a reply from HL I will let you know!
GLA.

Groover/Sam,
Its more like a closing group of trades, have a look at this..
http://www.theel1tetrader.com/2013/01/lse-closing-auction-how-it-works.html
Thought i'd get rid of the word Dilution in the thread!
Cheers.
RM

UT 15m shares.....!?!
Couple of other big buys...very nice.
ANyone else feel this is being walked back up to the IPO price?

Hi Harry,
Don't worry Harry, i'm well calm. And nothing personal intended...
Was just pointing out that you only start posting on stocks the day after bad news as they go down, never up? It must be hard work keeping at it. I mean literally the day after....Im just a novice of course, so cant see that being short from that point could yield enough for you? Just trying to learn from an old pro like yourself....
Take care.

Morning Harry, you were up early.
Well for someone that said he had stops at 50 and 40 when the price was 80, posting it as a sell; i'm amazed you're still here.
But you do appear to be a very unlucky investor indeed.
Its funny how your first post for a given stock is always the day after a big drop in its share price, and then you trash the stock until it either rises or bottoms out...Even when a little rally starts you're one of the boys but there's always a little subtle "but" in there...hmmm.
I think the best thing you can do is tell us all what stocks you hold but haven't posted on yet, so that we can all GTF out of them before the drop!

Hi tpinvest,
Always good to have different views. Regarding the macro economics, they apply to all shares not just Saga. From your view I assume you're all in cash currently?
The one thing we do have in common is that neither of us are inside the business looking at the day to day numbers. But one day they will be set in front of us. That's the great thing about this game-you get to find out what the face down cards are in due course.
And I agree they are where they are for well, 3 reasons. Two impairments, a pandemic and oh the suspension of divi-4 reasons. And in all of that timespan, I don't think they have issued equity to raise, as many would have and have recently. But the ship and half are only part of the travel business unit, which itself are only 17% of last years PBT. So me being glass half full I still think there is good to come, and perhaps I may have to wait for full year but that's cool with me.
Stay safe.
RM

From last results:-
"The Group remains in a strong financial position with significant available liquidity. As at 31 March 2020 the Group had available cash resources of £92m, increased from £33m at the end of February, and significantly higher than the level needed to cover short term cash outflows. The increase in cash resources in March is primarily due to the receipt of £14m from the sale of two introductory healthcare businesses and a precautionary £50m drawdown on the Group’s revolving credit facility (with a further £50m undrawn), partially offset by a £7m cash injection to the ST&H travel ring fenced group.
Given the good starting point and structurally favourable cash flow generation of the Insurance business, the Group expects to be able to continue to meet all debt service obligations as they fall due. This includes ship debt and term loan repayments of around £40m in each of the next two years. As previously indicated, the Group expects to be able to repay all short term banking facilities ahead of maturity in 2022 and 2023."
Neither vessel should have too much ongoing overhead-the way staff are employed on cruise ships means they will just send them home and not pay them.
Granted if they back track on this then it wont be good, but if they reconfirm proceeding in line with last report, I suspect we will start to move up.
GLA.

Its not from the IPO. It first appeared as positive goodwill in the Jan 2018 report in the sum of £1485m. There is nothing in the 2017 report as far as I can see. This was allocated Insurance excl Bennetts 1398.6, Bennetts 13.6, Travel excl Destinology 59.8 and Destinology 13.0.
2019 reduced by 310 to be carrying +1175 and then 2020 down again to leave 778 in as positive. Reduction mostly insurance.
One would hope that the new man has kitchen-sinked it and at least he has put his hand in his pocket at well over the current price. For me its a good trade leading to a good long term hold but we shall see, starting Monday with an update?
GLA.

Hey UK, I'm still here but was ghosting not posting. Av 37 also. I think you mean the divi is 2.5p rather than 25. Shame mind !

Ponzi,
Market cap as of now = 265m shares x £1.14=£302m approx.. See Hyve investor pages. Most platforms haven't caught up yet. SO your current market cap figure incorrect.
Market cap pre covid was 815m shares x circa £1.00= £815m
Market cap post covid before consolidation and rights issue was 815m shares x circa £0.20 =£163m. This was when it was known that there would be a raising, but not how and how much. For it to get to your 69p the market would have to think that there was a doubt in its survival again. Wouldn't have thought that was going to happen to be honest, but if it does i'll be back in.GLA

Hi Richie,
Not sure which platform is showing £30 in Jan? Different platforms have approached the consolidation in different ways though. Of the 3 I ever look at, my iPhone stocks app and indeed this board show the price in 'old' money up until the 10 for 1, then the higher post-consolidation price thereafter, whilst HL has kind of back tracked its graph as if already consolidated which is not ideal. The actual price in January varied between about 98 and 108p. It then dropped with covid and I was in about 18p I think. Price was in the 20s when the RI was announced. Hope that helps?
GL