The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
The report suggests the test could be used for approx 35k cases but, as pointed out by Jimi, there isn't the capacity in the lab testing set up to cope with the increased demand. There is also a time factor so I'm thinking the CYP2C19 test may be used in the region of 35k - 50k times. That would still amount to about £3.5 - £4m worth of revenue (not profit). Anything like those figures will change the landscape here. Still worried about the pervasive negative comments from outside sources though within the report. Bit of a knife edge here now - hasn't that been said before of GDR?!
I did Parkez. It says 'It is EXPECTED that Admission will become effective, and dealings in the New Ordinary Shares will commence, at 8:00 a.m. BST on 25 April 2024'
So in fact this isn't confirmed...yet. So now we are expecting another RNS very soon with this confirmed by the LSE.
Yep hands up AHS. Wrong again. Still not happy with the way the way the BODs have handled everything this last year though. Pleasant surprise to be coming back to market but still no idea how the sp will react to such a massive dilution.
The public Consultation ends on Friday I think and it's possible a draft recommendation will be made but not officially published until July.
If it becomes clear it's not a FULL recommendation - and I take Muminr's points on board that NICE seem to be indicating it will be FULL - then it will be a bad weekend for share holders here. That might in fact precipitate GDR going private or being sold on the cheap. I think for now though Cheek doesn't want to go down that route. He appears to want to be rid of RF and get funding through other means and get the FDA partner announced asap. Someone's already said it, chicken and egg. IMO it's all hanging on this next bit of news from NICE. Hopefully it's good. If it is then sp should fly.
Well, if that 'little gamble' does pay off AHS at cpx I will put my profits here at this price! Can see this steadily climbing all the way to July and then probably the usual 'sell the news' action on results, even if positive.
I did say yesterday I thought a placing might be coming soon. In terms of the dilution and even the price it’s not too bad but three things bother me now.
Why were existing share holders not given the opportunity to participate in the discounted placing?
An RNS released without any specifics on figures but clearly designed to cause a surge in the sp so the placees could forward sell and, to quote petroinvestor, leave existing share holders ‘holding the baby’ as the sp inevitably drops back to the placing price. Some big sellers yesterday who were clearly in the know. GST might be listed on the main market but the management certainly behave as if they’re running a company on AIM. It’s no wonder funding on LSE is drying up, causing more and more significant under valuations, when investors are so easily hoodwinked and ripped off.
If GST is now generating significant revenue why did they need a larger sum now than in the two previous placings? Why can the company not explain why the figures on GS 20 Exchange are so inaccurate? Why no figures at all?
Going on previous form were wrong receive Further news. Next RNS will be the acquisition and then the July results.
Shabby treatment of existing shares holders. We note move on and wait for some decent results. If on July those are disappointing then I’ll vote with my feet- and money. Only got £11k in here now but obviously less thanks to yesterday and today.
Thanks for a grown up post muminr . I’m glad I’m not the only one that waded through the whole discourse and came to a negative conclusion. I agree that the funding, the FDA partner, it’s all tied on the outcome of this NICE recommendation. Your reasoning for the outcome seems eminently plausible but GDR has seen many false dawns. Is this going to be another? Who knows. Either way Cheek is brave and playing for everything on this news. Time will tell.
And yet AHS here we are, a whopping 2%+ up. I agree it's ridiculous but something isn't right. There are some clever people out there who would see this as a huge opportunity to make very good money very quickly and yet people aren't piling in.
Tiger, you utter jerk. It’s a public consultation…. Find it on NICE website. You can see every comment made and then the response from the NICE panel. Nothing is hidden and not classified you idiot. Actually read it rather than just saying I’ve read it.
I think Gino was being disingenuous when he said he could see no reason why it wouldn’t granted Full recommendation. When I watched that presentation again the other day the person I was least convinced by was the CFO, who seemed reluctant to say anything and was clearly uncomfortable all the way through it
Yes i pressed the buy button but that was because we were being lied to. The management have not been open or honest about the dreadful state the company was in until it was too late for most investors to do anything about.
Charlatans. Nothing new for a company on AIM.
And just found this from NICE themselves -
This guidance is advisory and does not have a funding
mandate. NHS England may decide to consider
CYP2C19 genotype testing for inclusion in the National
Genomics Test Directory.
So even if they do approve use of CYP2C19 the NHS will still have the final say on if/where/when the test is used.
Inagene Diagnostics also very actively trying to sway opinion against using CYP2C19 suggesting it won't be cost effective long term as there will be newer tests arriving before long that can have much broader scope in what can be tested for.
Gulp....I've spent the last hour and a half reading the NICE consultation documents. I think CYP2C19 is highly unlikely to be given full recommendation. there are numerous other organisations who are clearly anti and suggesting there are better tests eg Mantara Health PGx DNA test which tests for 12 genes rather than just one that GDR test for on reaction to Clopidogrel, and also more cost effective treatments, mainly laboratory testing.
My mood just sank as i read more and more. I think Gino was not being entirely honest when he said in the presentation that he can see 'no reason' why Full recommendation would not be forthcoming. Blimey I've just read the whole thing and I can see there's a lot of opposition. Have to say I was also very disappointed by the lack of submitted evidence from GDR themselves. they only get involved on a handful of issues where as both Mantara and Genomadix are working hard to highlight all and any possible negatives by using the CYP2C19 test.
Flipping heck. I should have read this sooner but now I can see why the share price is going nowhere and yet the consultation period will end this Friday. Bugger Bugger Bugger. I will be amazed if GDR can survive now. If they can't get it to a point where even the NHS will use the test then no will want to buy GDR so there's not even a glimmer of hope that we might see a take over on the cheap. Apologies not to post more positive news. It's grim imv
Woody 'expects to complete the acquisition in Q2/Q3 2024'
Precisely. Q2 or Q3 ffs is only months away and yet retail investors want immediate gains these days or else they just f off and sit on the side lines waiting for an obvious certainty. Disappointed but I'm holding and jut waiting for something to pop
Blimey at the rate the sp is falling we'll end up the day red. ffs
Wait for good news for months and when it finally arrives the market just sells the news. Typical of UK markets at the moment. I guess this is why so many companies want to delist and get themselves listed in other countries. Come on GST get a shift on and give us some proper numbers.