The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Although I did not press them on it I think they were talking about the new drilling program. For FO we already have wells drilled and need to tie them into the new pipeline. I’m quietly optimistic on this work-stream personally.
TiL - great stuff and 33mboe being reclassified from 2C to 2P should be SP enhancing too. Not sure how to calculate, in theory how much it should add to SP though. Maybe Z could refresh us on his views as I know he’s posted on this subject before.
I dont hold (but I wish I did) so it’s not a pitch at all. I held quite some time ago but sold but have retained it on my watch list and it’s doing very well . The 52 week low (and it was lower before 12 months ago) was 99p and today it’s £1.72. It’s doing so well and also pays a decent dividend. I’m not buying but it just makes me even more keen (if that is at all possible) to see SAVE trading again.
Similar to many on here, I guess, my hopes of a successful SS deal ebb and flow between being a bull and a bear. ATM I’m quite positive of successful deal closure but let’s not kid ourselves - when / if it should close there are many calls and puts to the deal. Having said that, I do have a lot of confidence in AK in making the tough deals work (even if he can’t nip over a fix a pipeline!!!).
We of course know nothing of what’s required in detail fro the deal to close but it does seem more and more (to me anyway) that the PNCL accounts and all potential final settle payments are critical to Government sign off. I can’t see Petronas wanting to remain in the Countery one jot, so they have as much skin in the game as us to get this deal over the line.
I also can’t see much chance at all of the SS Government wanting to nationalise the oil fields in SS and I don’t see any other company have the appetite for the risk of this magnitude to try and pinch it from us.
AIM / NOMAD (although I think NOMAD’s in general just earn decent fees by talking a good game) must think that there is more than 50/50 chance of it getting over the line.
The saving grace for me is that the underlying existing business should be growing significantly month by month and should SS fail, the longer we are suspended, the higher chance of a stronger SP on return becomes.
As a minimum in addition to Accugas let’s hope we see:-
CPF completion
First oil in Niger
Stubb Creek completion
Accugas debt re-structure
If these 4 things should happen, even without a successful SS deal, I see a quite healthy SP by the end of 2024.
IR told me that although the SAVE accounts will be ready soon, the PNCL accounts will not be produced any earlier that we were originally told - late June / early Q3. They inferred that they are very complex and as they are with external auditors, nobody at all can speed them up. Good point TiL, maybe the PCNL accounts and all final payments etc need to be in place before the Government put a bit of ink on a dotted line.
When you look at it like that it just makes you realise how big “a bit of ink on a dodder line can be”!
It’s a bit like looking at an SP price on a screen. We currently show 26.35p and when we come back we may see 20p and we may see 80p.
Lets hope we get a bit of ink and 80p…
Hi JStandMick - it’s me here Agadem. I’ve not acquired my bus pass yet but similar to you, I’ve acquired a few things since I first bought. The main thing being schizophrenia- ha ha ha. And guess a few of us have a chance of acquiring dementia before we are re-listed here.
TiL - I was being sarcastic mate and the longer we are suspended the stronger the SP could come back at should SS fail so it’s all fine by me too. On the flip side of my sarcasm we have the possibility of:-
Accugas production UP
CPF completed with new clients added
More stranded gas tied in
Naira could and should strengthen and debt re-structure could happen
Stubb Creek completion
New wells started to be drilled in Niger
Tie-in to the Benin pipeline and first oil from Amdigh
New M&A announced
Progress announced on renewable projects
New renewable projects announced to take us over 1GW
Debt reduced
Possible progress on one or more of the 4 x ICC cases linked to TOTco, COTco, Doba
So all the above are quite possible and could give us a good chance of returning >26.35p.
The one thing I still see as highly improbable are AK showing his face at the AGM!
Also I have been wondering if any of the delay is due to the damaged pipeline. Would you as a CEO want to sign on the dotted line for $1.25bn of oil assets with no current route to market. There would have to be some serious T&C’s build in to any final sign off.
And although the SP is likely to be very highly volatile on return anyway, can you imagine how volatile it would be in we came back with a completed deal but no pipeline and then a few weeks later the pipeline fixed and production resumed?
Whatever happens I a definitely with Zengas, i.e no kneejerk reaction when we re-list. IMHO the SP will bounce all over the place and it will take sometime before the market fully understands the company dynamics and it will be a while until the REAL value per share settles down.
Personally I think this is a cracking RNS and gives me great confidence in the company and the quality their reporting, communications.It also demonstrates the dedicated and professional Approach to keeping the PI community updated with quality communications. IMHO it gives the company another 4 to 5 months to:-
Produce some more lovely ESG documents
Attend multiple conferences all over Africa and in London
Allow then to say fxxx all again at the AGM and AK see no reason to attend again
Give the Naira some more breathing space to weaken further against the $
Allow the opportunity for POO to possible fall
Give the IR team plenty of time to proof read the new WEB site and check for obvious errors
Give AK a bit more time to plan first oil in Niger or contemplate bringing in a partner
Run the rule over a few more very-high risk very expensive M&A opportunities
Permit a few people within the group to go on sponsored training courses all over the World
Bring in another consultancy company to work out the share option scheme on re-list
So all in all this breathing space should allow the company to get all their admin and housekeeping in order. And then when we re-list everybody should have an empty in-tray and we can then start thinking about how we run a successful O&G company.
So all good in my World and cant wait to see another RNS on 30th September extending the suspension to a new date surpassing the 2 year birthday of the first suspension.
GLA all and keep smiling…
Further to its announcement on 5 April 2024, the Company advises that its ordinary shares remain suspended from trading on AIM while it advances the various workstreams associated with completion of the proposed transaction and is working towards publishing an AIM Admission Document in Q3 2024. A further update on transaction progress, and associated matters, is expected to be made within the next four weeks.
Errors on WEB sire fed back to them and should get corrected soon
New suspension date RNS later today / tomorrow - SAVE just waiting for the date from AIM
AK been in Nigeria for some time but back in SS at the moment
I suspect no Gov sign off still but AK would only inform a very limited few if we had it
Operations going well in Nigeria
No new drilling taken place in Niger yet - progress proving to be quite slow
2023 finals / accounts expected this month and detailed update on Niger will be published then
The other set of accounts mentioned in previous RNS wont be issued until late Q2 / early Q3
I did not speak to here but Sally does still work for Savannah - ha ha ha
Let’s see what the RNS says but I suspect it will simply give us a new date in a few weeks time
GLA
And the NGN back tracking currently at 1,515. Nearly back to square one - 1,624 the all time low. Yes I’m sure they need to give a new date by Friday at the latest, or announce deal done pending 2 sets of accounts being released in June, or of course the possibility that deal cancelled.
I originally started building my stake here years ago with an investment timeline of December 2024 - wow what a long and tough Lourdes this has become with so much tied up in this stock.
A balanced PF is definitely more powerful than I’d have ever thought. Different sectors across different continents definitely the order of the day.
If SS closes and oil is flowing again - I wonder if we will see a dividend announcement?
CYB - brilliant and I’ve been pushing back to IR quite hard in recent times. Sally does not like the hard questions and has disengaged now. The comms from the company has been disgraceful IMO. If there is a reason why they have had to go radio silence with NOMAD agreement - then simply let us know.
Yes it’s a big wish, but if there is a reason they’ve been allowed to go silent on EVERYTHING, maybe just maybe, there could be some fantastic news that they have not put out yet such as signing of other large SPA’s for example.
All we can do is wait and use the AGM as a mechanism for getting our points over and using our votes. Nothing that it will make a great deal of difference with >60% of shares held by II’s / BOD but maybe a few of us get together to put our concerns forward to the AGM and also to agree on how we will contest on each resolution.
In recognition of yesterday’s World Day for Safety and Health at Work 2024, Savannah reaffirms our commitment to embedding a strong health and safety culture across the organisation through our robust policies and practices, in line with Pillar 2 of our sustainability strategy – Ensuring Safe and Secure Operations and United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 3 – Good health and well-being, and 8 – Decent work and economic growth.
On 11 September 2023, we were especially proud to achieve one million working hours without a Lost Time Injury (“LTI”) across our business operations in Nigeria. An LTI refers to any incidents which resulted in our people or contractors being unable to work due to an injury sustained at work. We continuously refresh our training and development opportunities to reinforce our commitment to an injury-free working environment for our people, contractors, suppliers and visitors. meaning that none of our people or contractors were unable to work due to an injury sustained at work.
Celebrating one million working hours without an LTI at Savannah's Uquo Central Processing Facility, Nigeria.
CYB - totally agree. Am tired of hearing about how many African people still cook by burning wood! I want to know far more about the tactical BAU / day to day stuff that SAVE is doing. Yes ESG is important but give me 80% on growing production along with FCF ambitions and 20% on ESG. I won’t be bothering to attend another AGM. I think I’ve been to more than the CEO.
Is:- ‘up to 1GW+’ a contradiction? Ha ha ha…
Although I don’t ascribe any value for our renewable projects ATM, I would be pleased to see another deal or two being announced which would take us beyond 1GW. And let’s not underestimate how large 1GW is. In the UK for example it would power 700,000 houses using average power consumption.
I still think AK canned the 1,500boepd of trucked oil in Niger due to our ESG profile.
Does anybody on here know their carbon footprint? I generate 13 tonnes of CO2 per annum and buy Carbon Credits each month to offset 20 tonnes. So I am 7 tonnes per annum to the good…
Z - as ever that’s a brilliant post and obviously you demonstrate great forward thinking. I don’t recollect reading your post b fore but at least I’ve not dreamt it and was on the right track with my thinking. It was the re-read of the SCAP note that made me think something could be bubbling along in the background.
Will be definitely disappointing that when we eventually get a fulsome update that there is not at least one really nice piece of big news for us to take it.
Am getting more positive about a decent SP even without SS when we resume trading. I’ll be very disappointed if we come back at anything less than 30p.